College football · Week 13 2026 · Saturday, November 28
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky prediction and pick
Our Kennesaw State Owls at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers pick: Kennesaw State by 1.0, 52% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 9 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 28, 1:00 pm ET · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Kennesaw State by 1.0 · 52% to win
Ours: Kennesaw State by 1.0Kennesaw State win 52%Western Kentucky win 48%494235282114707142128354249← Kennesaw State win byWestern Kentucky win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Kennesaw State win
52.3%
Western Kentucky win
47.7%
Middle 50%: Kennesaw State by 13 to Western Kentucky by 10
50%
Middle 90%: Kennesaw State by 29 to Western Kentucky by 27
90%
Middle 95%: Kennesaw State by 35 to Western Kentucky by 32
95%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 3
6.5%
Exactly Western Kentucky by 3
6.4%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 7
5.0%
Exactly Western Kentucky by 7
4.7%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 14
3.1%
P50
Half of games like this end between Kennesaw State by 13 and Western Kentucky by 10.
P90
9 in 10 between Kennesaw State by 29 and Western Kentucky by 27.
P95
19 in 20 between Kennesaw State by 35 and Western Kentucky by 32.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky: questions and answers
Who will win Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky?
Our forecast picks Kennesaw State, with 52% to win; Western Kentucky win 48% of the time.
What’s the spread for Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky?
Our spread: Kennesaw State −1.0. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky?
Saturday, November 28, 2026, at 1:00 pm ET, at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.
Kennesaw State at 
Western Kentucky
