College football · Week 13 2026 · Saturday, November 28
New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee prediction and pick
Our New Mexico State Aggies at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders pick: Middle Tennessee by 4.2, 60% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 9 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 pm ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Middle Tennessee by 4.2 · 60% to win
Ours: Middle Tennessee by 4.2New Mexico State win 40%Middle Tennessee win 60%5649423528211470714212835424956← New Mexico State win byMiddle Tennessee win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
New Mexico State win
40.3%
Middle Tennessee win
59.7%
Middle 50%: New Mexico State by 7 to Middle Tennessee by 16
50%
Middle 90%: New Mexico State by 24 to Middle Tennessee by 32
90%
Middle 95%: New Mexico State by 29 to Middle Tennessee by 38
95%
Exactly Middle Tennessee by 3
6.5%
Exactly New Mexico State by 3
6.0%
Exactly Middle Tennessee by 7
5.2%
Exactly New Mexico State by 7
4.3%
Exactly Middle Tennessee by 14
3.5%
P50
Half of games like this end between New Mexico State by 7 and Middle Tennessee by 16.
P90
9 in 10 between New Mexico State by 24 and Middle Tennessee by 32.
P95
19 in 20 between New Mexico State by 29 and Middle Tennessee by 38.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee: questions and answers
Who will win New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee?
Our forecast picks Middle Tennessee, with 60% to win; New Mexico State win 40% of the time.
What’s the spread for New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee?
Our spread: Middle Tennessee −4.2. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee?
Saturday, November 28, 2026, at 2:00 pm ET, at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
New Mexico State at 
Middle Tennessee
