2025 college football season · final

Turnover luck, 2025: who the fumbles bounced for

Western Michigan recovered 21 of the 30 fumbles in its games in 2025, 5.9 more than chance would give, worth −0.05 wins. Iowa recovered 4 of 20, 6.1 fewer than expected (−0.40 wins).

Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came. Regular season only. Methodology

Fumble luck

#	Team	Fumbles in its games	Recovered	Rate	Above expected	In wins
1	Western Michigan	30	21	70%	+5.9	−0.05
2	Penn State	20	15	75%	+5.1	+0.25
3	Indiana	16	13	81%	+4.9	+0.04
4	Louisiana	17	13	76%	+4.5	+0.08
5	Missouri State	24	16	67%	+3.9	+0.23
6	Old Dominion	34	21	62%	+3.8	+0.21
7	Air Force	13	10	77%	+3.7	+0.27
8	West Virginia	38	23	61%	+3.7	−0.10
9	Florida International	27	17	63%	+3.4	+0.34
10	Louisiana Tech	12	9	75%	+3.2	+0.58
11	Kennesaw State	22	14	64%	+3.2	+0.09
12	Texas	17	12	71%	+3.1	+0.06
13	UAB	16	11	69%	+3.1	−0.02
14	Boise State	26	16	62%	+3.0	−0.17
15	Utah State	21	13	62%	+2.8	+0.12
16	Georgia State	17	11	65%	+2.7	+0.02
17	Oklahoma State	23	14	61%	+2.7	−0.20
18	NC State	11	8	73%	+2.6	+0.17
19	Bowling Green	25	15	60%	+2.4	0.00
20	Northwestern	21	13	62%	+2.3	+0.16
21	Nebraska	16	10	63%	+2.2	+0.21
22	Temple	14	9	64%	+2.1	+0.12
23	Buffalo	26	15	58%	+2.0	−0.10
24	Rutgers	16	10	63%	+1.9	−0.15
25	Georgia Tech	18	11	61%	+1.9	+0.33
26	Ohio State	12	8	67%	+1.8	+0.03
27	TCU	21	12	57%	+1.8	−0.08
28	Miami	20	12	60%	+1.6	+0.07
29	Coastal Carolina	37	20	54%	+1.6	+0.14
30	Boston College	21	12	57%	+1.6	+0.06
31	Colorado State	21	12	57%	+1.5	−0.01
32	Tulane	27	15	56%	+1.5	−0.13
33	South Carolina	27	15	56%	+1.5	+0.31
34	Memphis	21	12	57%	+1.5	+0.43
35	Illinois	21	12	57%	+1.4	+0.01
36	Virginia	25	14	56%	+1.4	+0.13
37	Central Michigan	23	13	57%	+1.3	+0.08
38	Stanford	20	11	55%	+1.2	−0.16
39	Kansas	22	12	55%	+1.1	+0.36
40	Marshall	24	13	54%	+1.1	−0.02
41	South Florida	28	15	54%	+1.1	+0.20
42	Florida	20	11	55%	+1.1	−0.08
43	South Alabama	16	9	56%	+1.1	+0.14
44	New Mexico State	26	14	54%	+1.0	−0.12
45	Kansas State	24	13	54%	+1.0	+0.22
46	Wisconsin	20	11	55%	+1.0	+0.07
47	Arizona State	24	13	54%	+1.0	+0.09
48	Wake Forest	32	17	53%	+1.0	−0.20
49	Michigan	16	9	56%	+1.0	−0.06
50	Toledo	20	11	55%	+1.0	+0.50
51	Louisville	25	13	52%	+0.7	−0.13
52	Purdue	17	9	53%	+0.7	−0.06
53	Florida Atlantic	25	13	52%	+0.7	+0.10
54	Texas A&M	18	10	56%	+0.7	−0.04
55	Liberty	19	10	53%	+0.6	+0.09
56	East Carolina	21	11	52%	+0.6	+0.02
57	Auburn	19	10	53%	+0.6	+0.22
58	Duke	23	12	52%	+0.6	−0.16
59	Eastern Michigan	11	6	55%	+0.5	+0.16
60	North Texas	27	14	52%	+0.3	+0.01
61	California	17	9	53%	+0.2	+0.02
62	LSU	20	10	50%	+0.1	−0.01
63	Arkansas State	28	14	50%	+0.1	−0.17
64	BYU	24	12	50%	+0.1	+0.29
65	Ball State	24	12	50%	+0.1	−0.10
66	Akron	22	11	50%	0.0	−0.27
67	UCF	26	13	50%	0.0	+0.13
68	Northern Illinois	20	10	50%	0.0	+0.25
69	Sam Houston	24	12	50%	−0.1	+0.02
70	Southern Miss	12	6	50%	−0.1	+0.12
71	Navy	28	14	50%	−0.2	+0.01
72	Houston	24	12	50%	−0.2	−0.42
73	Clemson	24	12	50%	−0.3	−0.07
74	Fresno State	21	10	48%	−0.3	+0.08
75	Arkansas	21	10	48%	−0.4	−0.22
76	Utah	19	9	47%	−0.4	−0.15
77	UNLV	23	11	48%	−0.4	+0.14
78	Washington State	21	10	48%	−0.4	−0.16
79	Pittsburgh	19	9	47%	−0.4	+0.10
80	Troy	21	10	48%	−0.5	−0.15
81	Charlotte	23	11	48%	−0.6	−0.01
82	UCLA	17	8	47%	−0.6	+0.04
83	Minnesota	13	6	46%	−0.6	+0.04
84	Oklahoma	21	10	48%	−0.7	−0.10
85	Iowa State	21	10	48%	−0.7	+0.19
86	Delaware	20	9	45%	−0.8	−0.12
87	Mississippi State	22	10	45%	−0.8	−0.26
88	Wyoming	18	8	44%	−0.8	−0.05
89	Western Kentucky	14	6	43%	−1.0	−0.42
90	USC	22	10	45%	−1.0	−0.05
91	App State	26	12	46%	−1.0	+0.40
92	UConn	12	5	42%	−1.0	+0.19
93	Kent State	20	9	45%	−1.0	+0.03
94	Syracuse	21	9	43%	−1.2	+0.04
95	San Diego State	16	7	44%	−1.2	+0.11
96	Ohio	19	8	42%	−1.3	−0.01
97	Maryland	9	3	33%	−1.3	+0.03
98	Cincinnati	22	10	45%	−1.3	−0.36
99	Virginia Tech	15	6	40%	−1.4	−0.01
100	Michigan State	19	8	42%	−1.4	−0.19
101	Massachusetts	17	7	41%	−1.4	−0.14
102	SMU	21	9	43%	−1.5	+0.12
103	Alabama	25	11	44%	−1.6	−0.22
104	Rice	15	6	40%	−1.6	−0.05
105	Miami (OH)	23	10	43%	−1.9	−0.18
106	Georgia	16	6	38%	−1.9	−0.07
107	Oregon State	22	9	41%	−1.9	+0.27
108	Washington	14	5	36%	−1.9	−0.16
109	Georgia Southern	24	10	42%	−2.0	−0.21
110	Missouri	20	8	40%	−2.0	−0.11
111	Oregon	20	8	40%	−2.1	+0.32
112	Colorado	26	11	42%	−2.1	−0.23
113	Texas Tech	39	18	46%	−2.2	+0.03
114	Jacksonville State	28	12	43%	−2.4	+0.02
115	Vanderbilt	21	8	38%	−2.6	−0.11
116	UTSA	21	8	38%	−2.6	−0.08
117	Texas State	12	3	25%	−2.7	−0.10
118	San José State	20	7	35%	−2.7	+0.28
119	Hawai'i	21	8	38%	−2.8	−0.17
120	Ole Miss	18	6	33%	−2.9	−0.07
121	Tennessee	31	13	42%	−3.0	+0.34
122	UL Monroe	22	8	36%	−3.0	−0.01
123	Arizona	20	7	35%	−3.1	−0.01
124	Army	26	10	38%	−3.2	−0.36
125	Nevada	21	7	33%	−3.3	−0.09
126	North Carolina	23	8	35%	−3.3	−0.29
127	James Madison	15	4	27%	−3.4	−0.34
128	Tulsa	23	8	35%	−3.4	−0.35
129	Middle Tennessee	29	11	38%	−3.5	−0.29
130	New Mexico	23	8	35%	−3.6	−0.53
131	Notre Dame	16	4	25%	−4.2	−0.08
132	UTEP	18	4	22%	−5.2	−0.05
133	Baylor	15	2	13%	−5.3	−0.30
134	Kentucky	20	4	20%	−5.8	−0.17
135	Florida State	26	7	27%	−5.9	−0.57
136	Iowa	20	4	20%	−6.1	−0.40

Kicking luck

Field goals made against what each kick’s distance and kicker give, for the team and against it. Net: its own kicks above expected minus its opponents’.

Team	Field goals	Expected	Opponents	Expected	Net	In wins
Hawai'i	25/26	20.0	14/20	15.4	+6.4	+0.55
Oklahoma	23/25	17.3	18/24	18.2	+5.9	+0.21
Northwestern	22/24	20.0	11/18	13.8	+4.7	+0.23
Florida	18/22	15.9	12/19	14.5	+4.6	+0.24
App State	20/25	18.5	15/23	18.1	+4.5	+0.26
San Diego State	19/22	16.6	8/14	10.1	+4.5	+0.10
Texas Tech	28/32	24.7	7/11	7.8	+4.1	+0.09
Georgia Tech	25/28	22.6	12/17	13.3	+3.7	+0.18
Purdue	15/17	12.5	18/25	18.7	+3.2	+0.01
Missouri State	14/19	13.7	11/18	13.9	+3.2	+0.52
Eastern Michigan	17/23	16.2	10/16	12.4	+3.2	0.00
Memphis	14/18	12.8	8/14	9.9	+3.0	−0.07
Wyoming	6/12	8.6	12/24	17.5	+3.0	+0.05
UCF	15/17	12.0	18/24	17.9	+2.9	+0.15
LSU	24/28	21.0	10/14	9.8	+2.8	+0.36
Tulane	24/27	20.9	14/18	13.6	+2.8	+0.07
Navy	10/11	8.5	14/19	15.1	+2.7	+0.26
Washington State	14/15	11.7	10/15	10.1	+2.4	+0.06
Texas	17/21	15.0	13/19	13.4	+2.4	+0.19
Indiana	16/18	14.2	16/22	16.5	+2.3	+0.21
Maryland	21/24	19.3	13/18	13.6	+2.3	−0.08
Wake Forest	18/22	16.1	19/25	19.4	+2.3	+0.14
UConn	22/25	19.4	14/18	13.7	+2.2	−0.54
UCLA	16/20	14.9	7/10	8.2	+2.2	+0.12
Bowling Green	19/22	15.7	15/19	13.9	+2.2	−0.09
Mississippi State	13/16	11.3	15/21	15.5	+2.2	+0.05
Central Michigan	14/16	12.5	12/18	12.6	+2.1	+0.29
North Carolina	19/23	16.5	12/14	11.5	+2.0	−0.01
South Carolina	12/16	11.2	16/22	17.2	+2.0	+0.35
Georgia	15/16	12.2	13/16	12.1	+1.9	+0.32
Nevada	20/26	19.2	17/23	18.0	+1.8	+0.37
TCU	11/14	11.5	13/20	15.3	+1.8	+0.42
Penn State	14/15	11.8	14/18	13.6	+1.8	−0.04
Northern Illinois	11/14	10.6	15/22	16.3	+1.7	+0.07
Army	15/19	14.2	14/19	14.9	+1.7	−0.11
Michigan State	11/16	12.2	10/16	12.9	+1.7	+0.20
Louisiana	18/24	17.4	13/19	13.8	+1.4	+0.28
Vanderbilt	11/12	9.2	18/24	17.6	+1.4	+0.11
Syracuse	12/14	10.8	16/20	16.2	+1.3	+0.06
Iowa State	15/20	13.6	13/17	12.9	+1.3	+0.16
Missouri	15/19	14.6	13/18	13.8	+1.2	−0.14
UNLV	14/19	14.5	14/21	15.6	+1.2	+0.16
East Carolina	13/15	11.1	16/19	15.2	+1.1	+0.20
New Mexico State	19/25	18.3	12/18	12.3	+1.0	−0.10
Miami	15/17	12.9	11/13	9.9	+1.0	+0.27
Fresno State	16/21	16.2	9/15	10.3	+1.0	−0.17
Baylor	16/20	14.2	14/18	13.2	+1.0	+0.25
Boston College	15/16	12.5	16/19	14.4	+0.9	−0.05
Rice	10/13	8.6	14/18	13.5	+0.9	+0.17
Kansas	14/17	12.6	13/16	12.5	+0.9	+0.01
Louisville	23/28	19.8	14/16	11.7	+0.9	−0.35
Oklahoma State	15/20	14.0	13/19	12.8	+0.9	+0.03
Virginia	22/27	21.2	12/17	12.1	+0.8	−0.36
California	13/17	12.2	14/20	14.0	+0.8	+0.18
Houston	20/25	18.6	16/21	15.4	+0.8	−0.85
Kennesaw State	13/19	14.5	10/16	12.2	+0.7	+0.04
Kansas State	13/15	11.5	15/21	14.0	+0.6	+0.08
Clemson	15/18	13.5	17/25	15.9	+0.4	+0.12
Wisconsin	7/11	7.6	14/19	14.9	+0.4	+0.29
Nebraska	16/19	14.9	12/15	11.2	+0.3	−0.24
Miami (OH)	19/22	16.4	12/13	9.7	+0.3	−0.03
USC	17/20	16.2	9/12	8.5	+0.3	+0.32
Utah	9/13	9.0	12/16	12.3	+0.3	+0.09
Western Kentucky	16/20	14.1	27/32	25.3	+0.2	−0.26
South Alabama	7/10	8.2	12/18	13.4	+0.2	−0.11
Ohio State	16/19	15.5	13/16	12.7	+0.2	+0.03
Pittsburgh	20/25	19.4	9/12	8.5	+0.1	−0.05
South Florida	17/21	15.0	15/17	13.1	+0.1	−0.03
Coastal Carolina	17/21	15.9	19/23	17.9	0.0	−0.01
Rutgers	13/19	14.6	11/16	12.7	0.0	−0.24
Middle Tennessee	11/14	10.5	13/17	12.5	0.0	−0.17
Arkansas State	19/24	18.3	14/18	13.2	−0.1	+0.26
Toledo	8/10	7.6	7/9	6.4	−0.1	0.00
Jacksonville State	20/26	19.7	12/15	11.5	−0.2	+0.34
Texas State	19/21	16.4	12/12	9.2	−0.2	−0.17
New Mexico	15/16	12.4	16/18	13.2	−0.3	−0.28
Delaware	16/21	15.2	18/24	17.0	−0.3	+0.58
SMU	14/21	14.3	16/21	16.0	−0.3	+0.06
Western Michigan	14/20	13.8	12/15	11.5	−0.3	−0.10
Troy	10/15	10.8	20/27	20.5	−0.4	+0.15
Kentucky	13/17	11.8	14/17	12.4	−0.4	−0.21
Minnesota	14/21	16.2	14/21	15.8	−0.4	+0.10
Georgia Southern	14/17	13.8	16/19	15.4	−0.4	+0.03
Charlotte	9/12	9.8	12/18	12.4	−0.4	+0.10
Liberty	16/22	16.7	13/19	13.3	−0.5	−0.11
Marshall	20/25	18.9	16/20	14.4	−0.5	−0.29
Cincinnati	13/17	13.3	15/19	14.8	−0.5	−0.13
Arizona State	21/29	21.6	14/20	14.0	−0.6	−0.09
Florida Atlantic	16/19	15.3	14/17	12.6	−0.7	−0.04
Ohio	5/10	7.6	11/17	13.0	−0.7	−0.02
Iowa	20/26	18.6	16/18	13.9	−0.7	−0.23
Buffalo	14/17	12.9	14/17	12.1	−0.7	+0.56
BYU	22/29	23.0	19/25	19.2	−0.8	−0.02
North Texas	12/13	10.9	14/15	12.1	−0.8	+0.16
West Virginia	10/12	9.2	18/22	16.4	−0.8	−0.07
Kent State	8/11	8.7	16/21	15.8	−0.9	+0.38
Illinois	17/20	15.9	14/15	12.0	−0.9	−0.35
Utah State	14/18	13.8	17/21	15.9	−0.9	−0.33
James Madison	12/16	11.6	15/19	13.7	−0.9	+0.08
Auburn	20/25	19.5	18/22	16.5	−1.0	−0.16
Massachusetts	9/15	9.6	10/13	9.6	−1.0	−0.05
Sam Houston	11/18	12.8	18/25	18.8	−1.1	−0.17
Ball State	8/15	10.9	11/17	12.7	−1.2	−0.16
Tulsa	17/21	15.6	13/14	10.3	−1.3	−0.25
Virginia Tech	15/20	15.1	17/20	15.8	−1.3	−0.10
Tennessee	14/18	13.1	15/18	12.7	−1.4	−0.41
Duke	14/19	14.4	17/20	15.9	−1.5	+0.15
UTSA	15/18	14.4	14/15	11.8	−1.6	+0.10
Old Dominion	14/23	17.6	8/13	9.9	−1.6	−0.01
Stanford	16/21	17.0	21/26	20.3	−1.7	+0.06
Washington	9/12	9.2	17/21	15.3	−1.9	−0.26
Louisiana Tech	9/17	11.7	15/22	15.8	−1.9	−0.25
NC State	5/8	6.4	22/29	21.2	−2.2	−0.10
Colorado	9/12	9.7	20/26	18.4	−2.3	−0.03
Arizona	19/32	22.3	14/21	14.8	−2.5	−0.32
Oregon	15/19	14.1	11/11	7.4	−2.6	−0.13
Florida International	16/21	16.0	16/18	13.3	−2.7	−0.11
Southern Miss	9/15	11.1	9/11	8.2	−2.9	−0.11
Arkansas	14/18	13.1	19/21	15.1	−3.0	−0.30
Alabama	13/20	14.7	13/15	11.6	−3.0	−0.23
UAB	10/14	10.6	12/13	9.6	−3.1	−0.21
Michigan	15/22	17.1	15/18	14.0	−3.2	+0.07
Temple	10/13	9.8	13/14	9.6	−3.2	−0.15
Georgia State	7/16	10.8	15/20	15.5	−3.3	−0.19
Ole Miss	16/25	19.8	14/20	14.4	−3.4	−0.02
Boise State	11/16	12.3	11/12	8.8	−3.4	−0.06
Florida State	12/19	14.0	13/15	11.4	−3.5	−0.19
Akron	16/23	17.4	15/18	12.8	−3.6	−0.13
UL Monroe	2/7	5.2	18/22	17.3	−3.8	−0.23
Oregon State	6/13	9.2	17/20	15.8	−4.4	+0.23
Colorado State	5/10	7.3	11/11	8.9	−4.4	−0.14
Texas A&M	15/24	18.0	15/17	13.4	−4.7	−0.17
Notre Dame	5/9	6.9	17/20	14.2	−4.7	−0.29
Air Force	10/15	11.6	20/21	16.8	−4.8	−0.36
UTEP	9/14	10.4	23/25	19.6	−4.9	−0.15
San José State	12/23	16.2	19/22	17.1	−6.1	−0.31

Questions

Which college football team has the most fumble luck in 2025?

Western Michigan Broncos: 21 of the 30 fumbles in its games recovered (70%), 5.9 more than expected, worth −0.05 wins.

Is fumble luck real?

Yes. Who falls on a loose ball is close to a coin flip: in FBS games in 2025, the team that fumbled kept the ball 48% of the time, and a team that beats the expected rate one season usually doesn’t the next. A team’s turnover margin built on recoveries tends to fall back; one built on forcing fumbles and avoiding interceptions lasts longer.

How is fumble luck measured?

Every fumble gets the chance the fumbling team keeps it, from where and how it happened. A recovery counts as luck by how far it beat that chance, and in wins by how much the bounce moved the chance of winning at that moment: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing.

2025 luck rankings · Expected wins · One-score games · Power rankings