luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · final · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2025, and if they had flipped

Kennesaw State went 6–1 in one-score games; replayed with the way both teams played, it wins 3.4 of those 7, the most close-game luck in FBS. Arkansas went 0–6, from play worth 3.0 wins.

TeamOne-score recordReplay wins in thoseClose-game luckRecordIf they flipped
Army 4–53.5 of 9+0.5 6–67–5
Iowa State 5–33.8 of 8+1.2 8–46–6
Jacksonville State 4–44.3 of 8−0.3 8–58–5
Kennesaw State 6–13.4 of 7+2.6 10–35–8
Arizona State 5–23.8 of 7+1.2 8–45–7
UConn 4–33.0 of 7+1.0 9–38–4
Missouri State 5–24.2 of 7+0.8 7–54–8
Virginia 4–33.2 of 7+0.8 10–39–4
App State 3–42.8 of 7+0.2 5–76–6
Ohio 4–34.0 of 70.0 8–47–5
Arkansas State 3–43.2 of 7−0.2 6–67–5
San José State 3–43.7 of 7−0.7 3–94–8
Buffalo 3–44.0 of 7−1.0 5–76–6
Kansas State 2–53.4 of 7−1.4 6–69–3
Louisiana 4–21.6 of 6+2.4 6–64–8
Ole Miss 5–13.1 of 6+1.9 11–17–5
Houston 5–13.4 of 6+1.6 9–35–7
UNLV 5–13.4 of 6+1.6 10–36–7
Kent State 4–22.8 of 6+1.2 5–73–9
Eastern Michigan 3–31.9 of 6+1.1 4–84–8
Northwestern 3–31.9 of 6+1.1 6–66–6
LSU 3–32.6 of 6+0.4 7–57–5
Nebraska 4–23.6 of 6+0.4 7–55–7
Middle Tennessee 2–42.3 of 6−0.3 3–95–7
New Mexico State 2–43.0 of 6−1.0 4–86–6
Iowa 2–43.4 of 6−1.4 8–410–2
Penn State 1–52.8 of 6−1.8 6–610–2
Auburn 0–62.1 of 6−2.1 5–711–1
Arkansas 0–63.0 of 6−3.0 2–108–4
Navy 5–02.9 of 5+2.1 10–25–7
California 4–11.9 of 5+2.1 7–54–8
Duke 3–21.3 of 5+1.7 8–57–6
Tulane 5–03.3 of 5+1.7 11–26–7
New Mexico 4–12.5 of 5+1.5 9–36–6
Oklahoma 4–12.5 of 5+1.5 10–27–5
Alabama 4–12.5 of 5+1.5 10–37–6
Georgia 4–12.5 of 5+1.5 12–19–4
Wake Forest 4–12.8 of 5+1.2 8–45–7
Georgia Tech 4–13.0 of 5+1.0 9–36–6
Texas 3–22.0 of 5+1.0 9–38–4
Georgia Southern 4–13.0 of 5+1.0 6–63–9
Western Kentucky 3–22.1 of 5+0.9 8–47–5
Rice 3–22.4 of 5+0.6 5–74–8
Delaware 3–22.5 of 5+0.5 6–65–7
Memphis 2–31.6 of 5+0.4 8–49–3
Akron 3–22.6 of 5+0.4 5–74–8
Mississippi State 2–31.7 of 5+0.3 5–76–6
Arizona 3–22.9 of 5+0.1 9–38–4
TCU 3–23.0 of 50.0 8–47–5
Baylor 2–32.1 of 5−0.1 5–76–6
Louisville 2–32.2 of 5−0.2 8–49–3
UCLA 2–32.3 of 5−0.3 3–94–8
South Alabama 2–32.4 of 5−0.4 4–85–7
Tulsa 2–32.8 of 5−0.8 4–85–7
West Virginia 2–32.9 of 5−0.9 4–85–7
Nevada 2–33.0 of 5−1.0 3–94–8
Liberty 1–42.1 of 5−1.1 4–87–5
Washington State 1–42.1 of 5−1.1 6–69–3
Texas State 1–42.8 of 5−1.8 6–69–3
Marshall 1–43.2 of 5−2.2 5–78–4
Minnesota 3–11.4 of 4+1.6 7–55–7
Texas A&M 4–02.9 of 4+1.1 11–17–5
Western Michigan 3–12.1 of 4+0.9 9–47–6
UAB 3–12.3 of 4+0.7 4–82–10
Ball State 3–12.4 of 4+0.6 4–82–10
Vanderbilt 3–12.6 of 4+0.4 10–28–4
Stanford 2–21.9 of 4+0.1 4–84–8
Colorado 1–31.1 of 4−0.1 3–95–7
UCF 2–22.1 of 4−0.1 5–75–7
Rutgers 2–22.3 of 4−0.3 5–75–7
Cincinnati 2–22.3 of 4−0.3 7–57–5
Air Force 1–31.4 of 4−0.4 4–86–6
Florida 2–22.5 of 4−0.5 4–84–8
Temple 2–22.7 of 4−0.7 5–75–7
Miami 2–22.7 of 4−0.7 10–210–2
Northern Illinois 1–31.8 of 4−0.8 3–95–7
Kentucky 2–22.8 of 4−0.8 5–75–7
Bowling Green 1–31.9 of 4−0.9 4–86–6
UTSA 1–31.9 of 4−0.9 6–68–4
Clemson 1–32.1 of 4−1.1 7–59–3
Tennessee 2–23.1 of 4−1.1 8–48–4
SMU 1–32.2 of 4−1.2 8–410–2
North Carolina 1–32.4 of 4−1.4 4–86–6
Florida State 0–41.4 of 4−1.4 5–79–3
Oklahoma State 0–41.6 of 4−1.6 1–115–7
Oregon State 1–32.7 of 4−1.7 2–104–8
Troy 3–01.5 of 3+1.5 8–55–8
BYU 3–01.6 of 3+1.4 11–28–5
Indiana 3–01.7 of 3+1.3 13–010–3
Sam Houston 2–10.8 of 3+1.2 2–101–11
Southern Miss 2–11.2 of 3+0.8 7–56–6
Michigan 3–02.3 of 3+0.7 9–36–6
USC 2–11.3 of 3+0.7 9–38–4
Florida International 2–11.5 of 3+0.5 7–56–6
Virginia Tech 2–11.9 of 3+0.1 3–92–10
Michigan State 1–21.0 of 30.0 4–85–7
East Carolina 1–21.1 of 3−0.1 8–49–3
NC State 2–12.2 of 3−0.2 7–56–6
Missouri 1–21.4 of 3−0.4 8–49–3
Maryland 0–30.4 of 3−0.4 4–87–5
Central Michigan 1–21.4 of 3−0.4 7–58–4
Utah State 1–21.6 of 3−0.6 6–67–5
Pittsburgh 1–21.6 of 3−0.6 8–49–3
Kansas 1–21.7 of 3−0.7 5–76–6
Louisiana Tech 1–21.7 of 3−0.7 7–58–4
Hawai'i 1–21.7 of 3−0.7 8–49–3
Wyoming 1–21.9 of 3−0.9 4–85–7
South Florida 1–21.9 of 3−0.9 9–310–2
Colorado State 1–22.0 of 3−1.0 2–103–9
UTEP 0–31.0 of 3−1.0 2–105–7
Toledo 0–31.1 of 3−1.1 8–411–1
Purdue 0–31.4 of 3−1.4 2–105–7
Boston College 0–31.9 of 3−1.9 2–105–7
Fresno State 2–01.0 of 2+1.0 8–46–6
Oregon 2–01.2 of 2+0.8 11–19–3
James Madison 2–01.4 of 2+0.6 12–110–3
North Texas 2–01.4 of 2+0.6 11–29–4
Illinois 2–01.6 of 2+0.4 8–46–6
Ohio State 1–10.7 of 2+0.3 12–112–1
Coastal Carolina 1–11.0 of 20.0 6–66–6
Utah 1–11.1 of 2−0.1 10–210–2
Florida Atlantic 1–11.1 of 2−0.1 4–84–8
San Diego State 1–11.6 of 2−0.6 9–39–3
Washington 1–11.6 of 2−0.6 8–48–4
UL Monroe 1–11.7 of 2−0.7 3–93–9
South Carolina 0–20.8 of 2−0.8 4–86–6
Miami (OH) 0–20.9 of 2−0.9 7–69–4
Notre Dame 0–20.9 of 2−0.9 10–212–0
Georgia State 0–21.1 of 2−1.1 1–113–9
Massachusetts 0–21.5 of 2−1.5 0–122–10
Wisconsin 1–00.2 of 1+0.8 4–83–9
Boise State 1–00.4 of 1+0.6 9–48–5
Old Dominion 1–00.6 of 1+0.4 9–38–4
Syracuse 1–00.7 of 1+0.3 3–92–10
Charlotte 1–00.9 of 1+0.1 1–110–12
Texas Tech 0–10.6 of 1−0.6 12–113–0

Most one-score games first. Close-game luck: one-score wins minus how many of those games the team wins in replays. If they flipped: the record with every one-score win a loss and every one-score loss a win.

Questions

Which college football team is luckiest in close games in 2025?

Kennesaw State Owls: 6–1 in games decided by 8 points or fewer, from play worth 3.4 wins in those games (+2.6). The unluckiest: Arkansas Razorbacks, 0–6 from play worth 3.0.

Is winning close games a skill?

Mostly not. Close games turn on a kick, a bounce or a 4th down, and a team’s record in them swings far more than its play does. That’s why replay wins in one-score games are a better guide to next season than the record in them.

Which teams are unbeaten in one-score games in 2025?

Navy (5–0), Tulane (5–0), Texas A&M (4–0), Troy (3–0), BYU (3–0), Indiana (3–0), Michigan (3–0), Fresno State (2–0).

2025 luck rankings · Expected wins · Turnover luck · Power rankings