2025 college football season · final

Expected wins, 2025: what each team’s play was worth

Tulane has won 11 games; replayed with the way both teams played, its play was worth 7.8, the most luck in FBS. Arkansas is the other way round: 2 wins from play worth 5.9.

Replay wins are what college fans call second-order wins: each game’s postgame win expectancy, added up. Records further ahead of them are the ones that tend to come back to earth.

#	Team	Conference	Record	Replay wins	Coin-flip wins	Pythagorean	Betting line	Wins − replay
1	Texas Tech	Big 12	12–1	11.5	12.7	12.4	10.3	+0.5
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	12–1	11.0	12.0	12.5	11.1	+1.0
3	James Madison	Sun Belt	12–1	11.0	11.8	11.4	10.1	+1.0
4	Indiana	Big Ten	13–0	10.8	11.6	12.4	10.7	+2.2
5	North Texas	American	11–2	10.3	10.9	10.3	9.8	+0.7
6	Notre Dame	Independent	10–2	10.3	10.8	10.5	10.1	−0.3
7	Miami	ACC	10–2	10.3	9.8	10.6	9.4	−0.3
8	Texas A&M	SEC	11–1	10.1	9.7	9.1	8.8	+0.9
9	Georgia	SEC	12–1	10.0	10.9	10.8	9.7	+2.0
10	Oregon	Big Ten	11–1	9.8	10.6	10.7	9.8	+1.2
11	South Florida	American	9–3	9.6	9.3	9.6	7.9	−0.6
12	San Diego State	Mountain West	9–3	9.6	8.8	9.8	6.7	−0.6
13	Vanderbilt	SEC	10–2	9.3	9.7	9.5	7.2	+0.7
14	Tennessee	SEC	8–4	9.1	9.0	8.3	8.3	−1.1
15	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	9–3	8.8	8.4	9.2	8.4	+0.2
16	Iowa	Big Ten	8–4	8.8	9.7	9.7	7.4	−0.8
17	Washington	Big Ten	8–4	8.7	8.7	9.3	8.1	−0.7
18	Toledo	MAC	8–4	8.7	8.8	10.8	9.1	−0.7
19	Missouri	SEC	8–4	8.7	7.7	9.1	7.8	−0.7
20	Virginia	ACC	10–3	8.7	9.6	9.5	8.3	+1.3
21	Utah	Big 12	10–2	8.6	9.9	10.3	9.3	+1.4
22	Arizona	Big 12	9–3	8.6	8.8	9.3	7.3	+0.4
23	Ole Miss	SEC	11–1	8.4	9.7	9.6	8.5	+2.6
24	Alabama	SEC	10–3	8.3	8.9	10.3	9.5	+1.7
25	Michigan	Big Ten	9–3	8.2	7.8	8.5	8.4	+0.8
26	Georgia Tech	ACC	9–3	8.2	7.3	7.8	8.1	+0.8
27	East Carolina	American	8–4	8.1	7.9	9.1	7.4	−0.1
28	Cincinnati	Big 12	7–5	8.1	7.2	7.6	7.1	−1.1
29	SMU	ACC	8–4	8.1	9.5	8.9	8.1	−0.1
30	USC	Big Ten	9–3	8.0	8.4	9.0	8.5	+1.0
31	Houston	Big 12	9–3	8.0	7.9	7.7	7.1	+1.0
32	Miami (OH)	MAC	7–6	7.9	7.3	7.5	7.0	−0.9
33	Oklahoma	SEC	10–2	7.9	8.3	9.7	8.0	+2.1
34	Illinois	Big Ten	8–4	7.9	8.0	7.5	7.5	+0.1
35	Louisville	ACC	8–4	7.9	8.1	8.3	8.3	+0.1
36	Clemson	ACC	7–5	7.8	7.7	8.2	8.3	−0.8
37	Wake Forest	ACC	8–4	7.8	6.8	7.5	6.0	+0.2
38	UNLV	Mountain West	10–3	7.8	8.5	8.1	7.7	+2.2
39	BYU	Big 12	11–2	7.8	9.5	9.9	7.9	+3.2
40	Tulane	American	11–2	7.8	9.2	8.3	8.5	+3.2
41	Penn State	Big Ten	6–6	7.8	7.3	8.5	8.3	−1.8
42	Boise State	Mountain West	9–4	7.7	8.3	8.7	9.3	+1.3
43	Memphis	American	8–4	7.7	8.2	8.7	8.3	+0.3
44	Pittsburgh	ACC	8–4	7.6	7.9	8.2	7.1	+0.4
45	Florida State	ACC	5–7	7.6	7.3	8.6	8.2	−2.6
46	Texas State	Sun Belt	6–6	7.5	7.9	7.1	7.4	−1.5
47	Ohio	MAC	8–4	7.5	7.9	7.5	7.4	+0.5
48	Navy	American	10–2	7.5	7.3	7.2	7.6	+2.5
49	Western Michigan	MAC	9–4	7.4	7.8	8.3	6.4	+1.6
50	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	8–5	7.3	8.5	7.3	6.2	+0.7
51	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	10–3	7.3	8.1	7.6	7.0	+2.7
52	TCU	Big 12	8–4	7.3	6.8	7.3	7.7	+0.7
53	UConn	Independent	9–3	7.2	7.7	8.3	7.9	+1.8
54	Arizona State	Big 12	8–4	7.1	6.4	6.5	6.9	+0.9
55	Kansas	Big 12	5–7	7.1	5.8	6.3	6.9	−2.1
56	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	8–4	7.1	5.6	7.6	6.9	+0.9
57	Fresno State	Mountain West	8–4	7.1	7.9	7.8	6.4	+0.9
58	Missouri State	Conference USA	7–5	7.0	4.8	5.3	5.2	0.0
59	Marshall	Sun Belt	5–7	7.0	6.4	6.1	6.2	−2.0
60	Hawai'i	Mountain West	8–4	7.0	7.2	7.3	6.0	+1.0
61	New Mexico	Mountain West	9–3	7.0	7.4	7.4	6.2	+2.0
62	UTSA	American	6–6	6.9	7.5	6.9	6.6	−0.9
63	Central Michigan	MAC	7–5	6.8	7.4	6.3	5.7	+0.2
64	Iowa State	Big 12	8–4	6.8	7.7	8.0	7.3	+1.2
65	Nebraska	Big Ten	7–5	6.7	6.9	7.6	7.5	+0.3
66	Texas	SEC	9–3	6.6	8.0	8.6	8.2	+2.4
67	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	7–5	6.4	6.8	6.6	7.0	+0.6
68	Washington State	Pac-12	6–6	6.4	6.0	6.5	5.2	−0.4
69	Kansas State	Big 12	6–6	6.3	7.0	6.7	7.0	−0.3
70	Auburn	SEC	5–7	6.3	7.4	7.7	6.9	−1.3
71	Buffalo	MAC	5–7	6.3	5.3	6.1	7.1	−1.3
72	Utah State	Mountain West	6–6	6.3	6.7	6.8	5.6	−0.3
73	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	7–5	6.1	7.9	7.7	6.7	+0.9
74	NC State	ACC	7–5	6.0	7.3	6.3	6.2	+1.0
75	Arkansas	SEC	2–10	5.9	5.5	5.8	6.2	−3.9
76	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	6–6	5.9	5.3	5.2	4.7	+0.1
77	Liberty	Conference USA	4–8	5.9	5.1	5.8	6.9	−1.9
78	LSU	SEC	7–5	5.9	6.4	7.2	7.1	+1.1
79	Kentucky	SEC	5–7	5.8	5.0	5.1	5.4	−0.8
80	Duke	ACC	8–5	5.8	7.1	7.7	7.1	+2.2
81	Wyoming	Mountain West	4–8	5.7	4.4	4.4	5.3	−1.7
82	Temple	American	5–7	5.7	5.3	5.6	4.7	−0.7
83	Baylor	Big 12	5–7	5.6	5.4	5.7	6.6	−0.6
84	UCF	Big 12	5–7	5.5	5.0	6.2	6.1	−0.5
85	Tulsa	American	4–8	5.5	4.8	4.5	4.4	−1.5
86	Delaware	Conference USA	6–6	5.5	5.9	5.4	5.9	+0.5
87	North Carolina	ACC	4–8	5.4	5.4	4.4	5.5	−1.4
88	Florida	SEC	4–8	5.4	4.2	5.3	6.1	−1.4
89	Akron	MAC	5–7	5.4	5.5	4.6	4.6	−0.4
90	Florida International	Conference USA	7–5	5.3	7.0	6.4	5.8	+1.7
91	Florida Atlantic	American	4–8	5.2	4.3	4.6	4.4	−1.2
92	South Alabama	Sun Belt	4–8	5.2	5.0	5.1	6.0	−1.2
93	South Carolina	SEC	4–8	5.2	4.8	6.2	5.9	−1.2
94	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	3–9	5.2	3.9	2.2	4.1	−2.2
95	San José State	Mountain West	3–9	5.2	3.7	3.4	6.2	−2.2
96	Army	American	6–6	5.1	6.6	6.1	6.2	+0.9
97	Rutgers	Big Ten	5–7	5.1	4.7	5.3	5.2	−0.1
98	Minnesota	Big Ten	7–5	5.0	6.5	6.0	5.3	+2.0
99	Troy	Sun Belt	8–5	5.0	7.0	6.5	5.7	+3.0
100	Bowling Green	MAC	4–8	5.0	4.5	4.9	5.6	−1.0
101	Air Force	Mountain West	4–8	4.9	5.4	5.9	5.7	−0.9
102	App State	Sun Belt	5–7	4.9	4.9	4.9	6.0	+0.1
103	Nevada	Mountain West	3–9	4.9	3.4	3.2	3.7	−1.9
104	Northwestern	Big Ten	6–6	4.9	4.8	6.5	5.2	+1.1
105	Oregon State	Pac-12	2–10	4.9	3.3	3.0	5.2	−2.9
106	California	ACC	7–5	4.8	5.9	5.6	5.7	+2.2
107	Mississippi State	SEC	5–7	4.8	5.5	6.3	5.3	+0.2
108	Boston College	ACC	2–10	4.7	2.8	4.3	4.8	−2.7
109	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	6–6	4.7	4.9	3.5	4.0	+1.3
110	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	6–6	4.7	5.7	4.6	5.2	+1.3
111	New Mexico State	Conference USA	4–8	4.7	3.7	4.4	4.3	−0.7
112	West Virginia	Big 12	4–8	4.5	4.1	3.7	4.1	−0.5
113	Maryland	Big Ten	4–8	4.5	4.9	5.2	5.3	−0.5
114	Rice	American	5–7	4.4	4.8	3.0	4.0	+0.6
115	Virginia Tech	ACC	3–9	4.3	2.5	3.8	5.0	−1.3
116	Louisiana	Sun Belt	6–6	4.3	4.1	5.3	5.6	+1.7
117	Kent State	MAC	5–7	4.2	5.6	3.1	3.0	+0.8
118	UTEP	Conference USA	2–10	4.1	3.2	4.3	5.2	−2.1
119	Purdue	Big Ten	2–10	4.1	2.6	2.8	3.9	−2.1
120	UAB	American	4–8	4.1	3.0	3.6	3.8	−0.1
121	Colorado	Big 12	3–9	4.1	4.8	3.6	4.9	−1.1
122	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4–8	4.0	3.4	2.8	4.4	0.0
123	Michigan State	Big Ten	4–8	4.0	4.6	4.7	5.1	0.0
124	Northern Illinois	MAC	3–9	3.9	3.7	3.7	5.2	−0.9
125	Stanford	ACC	4–8	3.9	3.2	3.3	2.6	+0.1
126	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	3–9	3.8	4.4	3.9	4.8	−0.8
127	UCLA	Big Ten	3–9	3.7	2.2	2.4	4.0	−0.7
128	Eastern Michigan	MAC	4–8	3.6	4.1	4.6	4.6	+0.4
129	Colorado State	Mountain West	2–10	3.6	2.5	2.9	4.8	−1.6
130	Georgia State	Sun Belt	1–11	3.6	2.3	2.2	3.3	−2.6
131	Ball State	MAC	4–8	3.4	3.1	2.3	3.2	+0.6
132	Oklahoma State	Big 12	1–11	3.1	2.0	1.5	2.2	−2.1
133	Syracuse	ACC	3–9	2.9	2.8	2.7	3.9	+0.1
134	Massachusetts	MAC	0–12	1.7	0.7	0.7	2.9	−1.7
135	Sam Houston	Conference USA	2–10	1.7	1.8	1.8	3.1	+0.3
136	Charlotte	American	1–11	1.4	0.8	1.3	2.2	−0.4

Replay wins: Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed 4,000 times with the way both teams actually played (second-order wins).
Coin-flip wins: The same with only kicks, fumble bounces, conversions and calls re-rolled.
Pythagorean: From points scored and allowed: games × PF^2.26 / (PF^2.26 + PA^2.26).
Betting line: Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

By conference: record against replay wins

Big Ten: Ohio State 12–1 (11.0), Indiana 13–0 (10.8), Oregon 11–1 (9.8), Iowa 8–4 (8.8), Washington 8–4 (8.7), Michigan 9–3 (8.2), USC 9–3 (8.0), Illinois 8–4 (7.9), Penn State 6–6 (7.8), Nebraska 7–5 (6.7), Rutgers 5–7 (5.1), Minnesota 7–5 (5.0), Northwestern 6–6 (4.9), Maryland 4–8 (4.5), Purdue 2–10 (4.1), Wisconsin 4–8 (4.0), Michigan State 4–8 (4.0), UCLA 3–9 (3.7)

ACC: Miami 10–2 (10.3), Virginia 10–3 (8.7), Georgia Tech 9–3 (8.2), SMU 8–4 (8.1), Louisville 8–4 (7.9), Clemson 7–5 (7.8), Wake Forest 8–4 (7.8), Pittsburgh 8–4 (7.6), Florida State 5–7 (7.6), NC State 7–5 (6.0), Duke 8–5 (5.8), North Carolina 4–8 (5.4), California 7–5 (4.8), Boston College 2–10 (4.7), Virginia Tech 3–9 (4.3), Stanford 4–8 (3.9), Syracuse 3–9 (2.9)

Big 12: Texas Tech 12–1 (11.5), Utah 10–2 (8.6), Arizona 9–3 (8.6), Cincinnati 7–5 (8.1), Houston 9–3 (8.0), BYU 11–2 (7.8), TCU 8–4 (7.3), Arizona State 8–4 (7.1), Kansas 5–7 (7.1), Iowa State 8–4 (6.8), Kansas State 6–6 (6.3), Baylor 5–7 (5.6), UCF 5–7 (5.5), West Virginia 4–8 (4.5), Colorado 3–9 (4.1), Oklahoma State 1–11 (3.1)

SEC: Texas A&M 11–1 (10.1), Georgia 12–1 (10.0), Vanderbilt 10–2 (9.3), Tennessee 8–4 (9.1), Missouri 8–4 (8.7), Ole Miss 11–1 (8.4), Alabama 10–3 (8.3), Oklahoma 10–2 (7.9), Texas 9–3 (6.6), Auburn 5–7 (6.3), Arkansas 2–10 (5.9), LSU 7–5 (5.9), Kentucky 5–7 (5.8), Florida 4–8 (5.4), South Carolina 4–8 (5.2), Mississippi State 5–7 (4.8)

American: North Texas 11–2 (10.3), South Florida 9–3 (9.6), East Carolina 8–4 (8.1), Tulane 11–2 (7.8), Memphis 8–4 (7.7), Navy 10–2 (7.5), UTSA 6–6 (6.9), Temple 5–7 (5.7), Tulsa 4–8 (5.5), Florida Atlantic 4–8 (5.2), Army 6–6 (5.1), Rice 5–7 (4.4), UAB 4–8 (4.1), Charlotte 1–11 (1.4)

Sun Belt: James Madison 12–1 (11.0), Old Dominion 9–3 (8.8), Texas State 6–6 (7.5), Marshall 5–7 (7.0), Southern Miss 7–5 (6.4), Arkansas State 6–6 (5.9), South Alabama 4–8 (5.2), UL Monroe 3–9 (5.2), Troy 8–5 (5.0), App State 5–7 (4.9), Coastal Carolina 6–6 (4.7), Georgia Southern 6–6 (4.7), Louisiana 6–6 (4.3), Georgia State 1–11 (3.6)

MAC: Toledo 8–4 (8.7), Miami (OH) 7–6 (7.9), Ohio 8–4 (7.5), Western Michigan 9–4 (7.4), Central Michigan 7–5 (6.8), Buffalo 5–7 (6.3), Akron 5–7 (5.4), Bowling Green 4–8 (5.0), Kent State 5–7 (4.2), Northern Illinois 3–9 (3.9), Eastern Michigan 4–8 (3.6), Ball State 4–8 (3.4), Massachusetts 0–12 (1.7)

Conference USA: Jacksonville State 8–5 (7.3), Kennesaw State 10–3 (7.3), Western Kentucky 8–4 (7.1), Missouri State 7–5 (7.0), Louisiana Tech 7–5 (6.1), Liberty 4–8 (5.9), Delaware 6–6 (5.5), Florida International 7–5 (5.3), New Mexico State 4–8 (4.7), UTEP 2–10 (4.1), Middle Tennessee 3–9 (3.8), Sam Houston 2–10 (1.7)

Mountain West: San Diego State 9–3 (9.6), UNLV 10–3 (7.8), Boise State 9–4 (7.7), Fresno State 8–4 (7.1), Hawai'i 8–4 (7.0), New Mexico 9–3 (7.0), Utah State 6–6 (6.3), Wyoming 4–8 (5.7), San José State 3–9 (5.2), Air Force 4–8 (4.9), Nevada 3–9 (4.9), Colorado State 2–10 (3.6)

Independent: Notre Dame 10–2 (10.3), UConn 9–3 (7.2)

Pac-12: Washington State 6–6 (6.4), Oregon State 2–10 (4.9)

Questions

What are second-order wins?

The wins a team’s play was worth, game by game, rather than the wins on its record: Bill Connelly’s name for summed postgame win expectancy. Ours replays each game 4,000 times from both teams’ own plays, with kicks, fumble bounces and conversions at their expected rates, and adds up how often each team wins.

Which college football team has been luckiest in 2025?

Tulane Green Wave: 11–2 from play worth 7.8 wins (+3.2). The unluckiest: Arkansas Razorbacks, 2–10 from play worth 5.9.

What are Pythagorean wins in college football?

Expected wins from points scored and allowed alone: games × PF^2.26 / (PF^2.26 + PA^2.26), with the exponent fitted to FBS games. It ignores how the points came, so blowouts of weak teams inflate it; the replay looks at every play instead.

2025 luck rankings · One-score games · Turnover luck · Power rankings · Methodology