luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 season · through Week 1

College football power rankings, week 2

All 138 FBS teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the points it would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field. Indiana is No. 1 at +29.3 points, Ohio State No. 2 (+24.3), Notre Dame No. 3 (+23.8).

Biggest climb since last week: Nevada, up 34 to No. 83. Biggest drop: Rutgers, down 41 to No. 108. Colorado is 1–0 with +0.8 wins of luck in it, so it ranks below what the record says. The same ratings make our predictions.

#MoveTeam RecordRating This seasonLast season Luck
1 – Indiana Big Ten 1–0 +29.3 +2.8+26.6 +0.1
2 – Ohio State Big Ten 1–0 +24.3 +5.6+18.7 0.0
3 – Notre Dame Independent 1–0 +23.8 +4.7+19.2 +0.2
4 ▲2 Miami ACC 1–0 +23.6 +10.3+13.3 0.0
5 ▲10 Texas SEC 1–0 +19.7 +5.6+14.1 0.0
6 ▲5 Alabama SEC 1–0 +18.7 +3.2+15.5 0.0
7 ▲3 Texas A&M SEC 1–0 +18.4 +5.6+12.8 0.0
8 ▼4 Oregon Big Ten 1–0 +18.4 −3.1+21.5 +0.1
9 ▼2 Utah Big 12 1–0 +18.2 +6.4+11.8 0.0
10 ▲4 Penn State Big Ten 1–0 +18.1 +4.6+13.5 0.0
11 ▲7 Oklahoma SEC 1–0 +16.3 +5.6+10.7 0.0
12 ▼3 Ole Miss SEC 1–0 +15.4 −0.6+15.9 +0.4
13 ▲3 Iowa Big Ten 1–0 +15.3 +3.6+11.7 0.0
14 ▲16 LSU SEC 1–0 +15.1 +3.8+11.3 0.0
15 ▼2 USC Big Ten 2–0 +14.7 +3.4+11.3 0.0
16 ▼8 Georgia SEC 1–0 +14.7 +5.1+9.6 0.0
17 ▼12 Texas Tech Big 12 1–0 +14.6 +0.5+14.1 0.0
18 ▲15 Pittsburgh ACC 1–0 +13.1 +4.6+8.5 0.0
19 ▼2 Washington Big Ten 1–0 +12.7 −1.8+14.5 +0.1
20 ▲15 Virginia ACC 1–0 +10.8 +0.7+10.1 0.0
21 ▼2 BYU Big 12 1–0 +10.8 +3.1+7.7 0.0
22 ▼2 Tennessee SEC 1–0 +10.7 +5.0+5.7 0.0
23 ▼1 SMU ACC 1–0 +10.7 +3.2+7.5 0.0
24 ▲15 South Carolina SEC 1–0 +10.5 +5.6+4.9 0.0
25 ▲17 Florida SEC 1–0 +10.2 +4.6+5.6 0.0
26 ▼14 Vanderbilt SEC 1–0 +10.0 −0.5+10.4 0.0
27 ▼1 Louisville ACC 0–1 +9.7 −2.0+11.7 −0.4
28 ▲9 Kansas State Big 12 1–0 +8.8 +6.4+2.4 0.0
29 ▼2 Illinois Big Ten 1–0 +7.3 −0.7+8.0 +0.1
30 ▲32 Mississippi State SEC 1–0 +7.1 +5.4+1.7 0.0
31 ▲19 Boise State Pac-12 0–1 +7.0 +0.6+6.4 −0.1
32 ▼9 Michigan Big Ten 1–0 +6.9 −4.3+11.3 +0.1
33 ▲21 Nebraska Big Ten 1–0 +6.8 +1.1+5.7 +0.1
34 ▼3 Auburn SEC 1–0 +6.8 −1.1+7.9 +0.2
35 ▼14 James Madison Sun Belt 1–0 +6.8 −3.3+10.1 +0.1
36 ▼7 Arizona Big 12 1–0 +6.8 +0.8+6.0 0.0
37 ▲6 Arizona State Big 12 1–0 +6.7 +6.8−0.1 0.0
38 ▲7 Duke ACC 1–0 +6.3 −1.9+8.3 0.0
39 ▼14 South Florida American 1–0 +6.3 −3.0+9.3 +0.6
40 ▼16 Missouri SEC 1–0 +6.2 +3.6+2.6 0.0
41 ▼13 North Texas American 0–1 +5.8 −5.3+11.1 −0.1
42 ▲14 Memphis American 2–0 +5.3 +4.4+0.9 +0.3
43 ▼11 Iowa State Big 12 1–0 +5.1 +2.0+3.1 0.0
44 ▲9 Kansas Big 12 1–0 +4.8 +4.80.0 0.0
45 ▲7 North Dakota State Mountain West 2–0 +4.6 +4.3+0.4 0.0
46 ▲9 Kentucky SEC 1–0 +4.6 +2.6+1.9 0.0
47 ▼7 Florida State ACC 1–1 +4.0 −3.9+7.8 +0.1
48 ▲20 Minnesota Big Ten 1–0 +3.6 +7.2−3.6 0.0
49 ▼15 TCU Big 12 0–1 +3.6 −2.4+6.0 −0.3
50 ▲20 Army American 1–0 +3.5 +7.7−4.2 0.0
51 ▲9 Cincinnati Big 12 1–0 +3.4 −0.8+4.2 +0.1
52 ▼14 Georgia Tech ACC 0–1 +3.2 −4.8+8.0 −0.8
53 ▼9 Toledo MAC 0–1 +3.1 +0.4+2.7 −0.5
54 ▲30 UCLA Big Ten 1–0 +3.0 +6.8−3.9 0.0
55 ▼4 Houston Big 12 1–0 +2.7 −2.0+4.7 +0.1
56 ▲3 Wake Forest ACC 1–0 +2.5 −0.1+2.6 +0.1
57 ▲1 Washington State Pac-12 0–1 +2.5 −0.8+3.3 −0.1
58 ▼10 Tulane American 0–1 +2.5 −0.7+3.1 0.0
59 ▲6 Baylor Big 12 0–1 +2.4 −1.5+3.9 −0.2
60 ▲18 New Mexico Mountain West 1–0 +2.1 +1.8+0.3 0.0
61 ▲20 UConn Independent 1–0 +2.1 +5.4−3.3 0.0
62 ▲12 Western Michigan MAC 0–1 +1.9 +1.8+0.1 −0.1
63 ▼6 Northwestern Big Ten 1–0 +1.8 +0.1+1.7 0.0
64 ▲9 UCF Big 12 1–0 +1.6 +5.6−4.0 0.0
65 ▼4 UTSA American 1–0 +1.6 +1.4+0.3 0.0
66 ▲3 UNLV Mountain West 1–1 +1.4 +0.4+1.1 −0.1
67 ▲5 Michigan State Big Ten 1–0 +1.0 −3.0+4.0 +0.5
68 ▲12 Colorado Big 12 1–0 +0.8 +2.3−1.4 +0.8
69 ▼23 NC State ACC 0–1 +0.8 −3.3+4.1 0.0
70 ▼6 San Diego State Pac-12 1–0 +0.1 +1.7−1.6 +0.2
71 ▼35 Clemson ACC 0–1 −0.3 −6.4+6.1 0.0
72 ▼9 Wisconsin Big Ten 0–1 −0.4 −7.3+6.9 −0.2
73 ▲2 Maryland Big Ten 1–0 −0.4 +5.6−6.0 0.0
74 ▲22 Syracuse ACC 1–0 −0.5 +6.1−6.6 0.0
75 ▼28 East Carolina American 0–1 −0.5 −5.8+5.3 0.0
76 ▼10 Navy American 1–0 −0.5 −0.1−0.4 0.0
77 ▼36 Old Dominion Sun Belt 1–0 −0.6 −0.3−0.3 0.0
78 ▼29 Arkansas SEC 1–0 −0.8 −0.8−0.1 0.0
79 – Virginia Tech ACC 1–0 −1.0 +5.7−6.6 0.0
80 ▲14 North Carolina ACC 1–0 −1.3 −0.1−1.1 +0.3
81 ▲19 Kennesaw State Conference USA 1–0 −3.1 +3.6−6.7 0.0
82 ▲5 Louisiana Tech Sun Belt 1–0 −3.2 +5.6−8.8 0.0
83 ▲34 Nevada Mountain West 1–0 −3.4 +2.6−6.0 0.0
84 ▲34 App State Sun Belt 1–0 −4.5 +6.7−11.2 0.0
85 ▲17 Liberty Conference USA 0–1 −4.5 +0.8−5.3 −0.1
86 ▲11 Air Force Mountain West 1–0 −4.8 +2.4−7.1 0.0
87 ▲12 Temple American 1–0 −5.0 +2.1−7.1 0.0
88 ▼3 West Virginia Big 12 1–0 −5.1 −3.4−1.7 +0.6
89 ▼13 Ohio MAC 0–1 −5.4 −3.7−1.7 −0.1
90 ▲14 Southern Miss Sun Belt 1–0 −5.6 +4.8−10.4 0.0
91 ▲14 Louisiana Sun Belt 1–0 −5.9 +1.4−7.3 0.0
92 – Purdue Big Ten 1–0 −6.0 −0.3−5.7 0.0
93 ▲17 Florida International Conference USA 0–1 −6.1 +0.4−6.5 −0.6
94 ▼1 Boston College ACC 0–1 −6.1 −1.7−4.4 −0.1
95 ▲3 Jacksonville State Conference USA 1–1 −6.4 +1.9−8.3 0.0
96 ▲23 San José State Mountain West 1–1 −6.4 +3.6−10.0 +0.3
97 ▼20 Fresno State Pac-12 0–1 −6.4 −5.9−0.5 0.0
98 ▼27 Texas State Pac-12 0–1 −6.8 −8.2+1.4 0.0
99 ▲2 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 1–0 −6.9 +2.6−9.6 0.0
100 ▲22 Colorado State Pac-12 1–0 −7.8 −0.1−7.7 +0.3
101 ▲2 South Alabama Sun Belt 1–0 −7.8 −0.6−7.3 +0.9
102 ▼11 Stanford ACC 1–1 −8.3 −13.5+5.2 0.0
103 ▼20 California ACC 0–1 −8.4 −9.4+0.9 0.0
104 ▼18 Marshall Sun Belt 0–1 −8.6 −7.2−1.4 0.0
105 ▲6 Oregon State Pac-12 0–1 −8.7 −0.6−8.1 −0.1
106 ▼11 Troy Sun Belt 1–0 −8.8 −4.2−4.6 +0.4
107 ▲1 Arkansas State Sun Belt 0–1 −8.9 −0.4−8.5 −0.1
108 ▼41 Rutgers Big Ten 0–1 −9.3 −8.3−1.1 −0.3
109 ▲11 Tulsa American 1–0 −9.5 −1.7−7.8 +0.2
110 ▼20 Hawai'i Mountain West 0–2 −9.6 −9.0−0.5 −0.1
111 ▲4 Delaware Conference USA 1–0 −9.7 +0.8−10.5 0.0
112 ▼24 Miami (OH) MAC 0–1 −9.9 −7.2−2.7 0.0
113 ▼31 Utah State Pac-12 0–1 −10.5 −7.4−3.1 −0.8
114 ▲9 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 0–1 −10.5 +0.8−11.4 −0.6
115 ▲10 UAB American 0–1 −11.0 −1.9−9.1 −0.1
116 ▲13 New Mexico State Conference USA 1–1 −11.5 +0.8−12.3 −0.1
117 ▼28 Western Kentucky Conference USA 0–1 −11.5 −5.1−6.4 0.0
118 ▼5 Oklahoma State Big 12 0–1 −12.3 −0.9−11.5 −0.2
119 ▲12 Georgia State Sun Belt 1–0 −12.4 +4.2−16.6 0.0
120 ▲4 Eastern Michigan MAC 1–1 −12.4 −5.1−7.4 −0.3
121 ▼15 Central Michigan MAC 0–1 −12.6 −4.3−8.2 0.0
122 ▼10 Bowling Green MAC 0–1 −12.8 −6.4−6.3 −0.2
123 ▲4 Rice American 1–0 −13.0 +2.2−15.1 0.0
124 ▼17 Wyoming Mountain West 0–1 −13.1 −2.5−10.6 −0.3
125 ▲3 Sacramento State MAC 1–1 −13.4 +3.9−17.3 0.0
126 ▼17 Missouri State Conference USA 0–1 −13.7 −8.2−5.5 0.0
127 ▼1 Akron MAC 0–1 −13.8 −2.5−11.3 −0.1
128 ▼7 Northern Illinois Mountain West 0–1 −13.9 −6.2−7.8 0.0
129 ▲8 Sam Houston Conference USA 0–1 −15.3 +1.6−16.9 −0.4
130 ▼16 Buffalo MAC 1–0 −15.4 −4.5−10.9 +0.2
131 ▼15 Florida Atlantic American 0–1 −15.7 −7.2−8.5 0.0
132 – Middle Tennessee Conference USA 1–0 −16.7 −1.2−15.5 +0.1
133 ▲5 Massachusetts MAC 1–0 −16.8 +5.7−22.5 +0.3
134 – Ball State MAC 0–1 −17.6 −8.2−9.5 0.0
135 ▼5 UTEP Mountain West 0–1 −18.5 −8.2−10.3 0.0
136 ▼3 UL Monroe Sun Belt 0–1 −21.4 −8.0−13.4 0.0
137 ▼2 Kent State MAC 0–1 −21.6 −8.2−13.4 0.0
138 ▼2 Charlotte American 0–1 −23.0 −6.0−16.9 −0.8

Rating: points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s games, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: wins above what the team’s play was worth, from replaying every game 4,000 times. Injuries, which change the week’s predictions, are left out: one week’s news.

Top 25, week 2

  1. Indiana Hoosiers +29.3, 1–0
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes +24.3, 1–0
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish +23.8, 1–0
  4. Miami Hurricanes +23.6, 1–0
  5. Texas Longhorns +19.7, 1–0
  6. Alabama Crimson Tide +18.7, 1–0
  7. Texas A&M Aggies +18.4, 1–0
  8. Oregon Ducks +18.4, 1–0
  9. Utah Utes +18.2, 1–0
  10. Penn State Nittany Lions +18.1, 1–0
  11. Oklahoma Sooners +16.3, 1–0
  12. Ole Miss Rebels +15.4, 1–0
  13. Iowa Hawkeyes +15.3, 1–0
  14. LSU Tigers +15.1, 1–0
  15. USC Trojans +14.7, 2–0
  16. Georgia Bulldogs +14.7, 1–0
  17. Texas Tech Red Raiders +14.6, 1–0
  18. Pittsburgh Panthers +13.1, 1–0
  19. Washington Huskies +12.7, 1–0
  20. Virginia Cavaliers +10.8, 1–0
  21. BYU Cougars +10.8, 1–0
  22. Tennessee Volunteers +10.7, 1–0
  23. SMU Mustangs +10.7, 1–0
  24. South Carolina Gamecocks +10.5, 1–0
  25. Florida Gators +10.2, 1–0

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the college football power rankings for week 2 of 2026?

Indiana, rated +29.3 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field, from a 1–0 start. Next: Ohio State (+24.3) and Notre Dame (+23.8).

How are these power rankings made?

Every team, FBS and FCS, is rated against the opponents it has played: each game’s final margin (capped at 50) and its luck-adjusted result, with the kicks, fumble bounces and conversions re-rolled at their expected rates. Last season’s rating is the starting point and fades as games are played. The rating is the points a team would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with a better record ranked lower?

Because records carry luck, and close games, fumble bounces and missed kicks even out. A team that won its games by luck is rated on how it played, like Colorado: 1–0, +0.8 wins of luck, ranked 68; one that lost by bad luck ranks higher than its record, like Utah State (0–1, −0.8 wins of luck, ranked 113).

Predictions · Luck rankings 2026 · Expected wins · How the replays work