luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 season · through Week 3

College football power rankings, week 4

All 138 FBS teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the points it would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field. Indiana is No. 1 at +24.8 points, Ohio State No. 2 (+24.4), Notre Dame No. 3 (+24.3).

Biggest climb since last week: Kentucky, up 26 to No. 37. Biggest drop: Boston College, down 20 to No. 113. South Florida is 3–0 with +1.2 wins of luck in it, so it ranks below what the record says. The same ratings make our predictions.

#MoveTeam RecordRating This seasonLast season Luck
1 – Indiana Big Ten 3–0 +24.8 +8.4+16.3 +0.1
2 ▲1 Ohio State Big Ten 2–1 +24.4 +10.6+13.9 −0.7
3 ▼1 Notre Dame Independent 3–0 +24.3 +8.8+15.5 +0.3
4 – Alabama SEC 3–0 +21.9 +9.3+12.6 +0.3
5 ▲3 Texas SEC 3–0 +20.6 +4.3+16.3 +0.7
6 – Miami ACC 3–0 +20.0 +14.4+5.6 +0.2
7 ▲3 Georgia SEC 3–0 +19.8 +13.2+6.6 0.0
8 ▼1 Utah Big 12 3–0 +19.5 +6.9+12.6 0.0
9 – Penn State Big Ten 3–0 +19.3 +12.1+7.2 +0.5
10 ▲2 Tennessee SEC 3–0 +15.9 +11.0+4.8 +0.7
11 – LSU SEC 2–1 +15.7 +6.5+9.2 −0.3
12 ▼7 Texas A&M SEC 2–1 +15.4 +1.7+13.6 +0.3
13 ▲2 Ole Miss SEC 3–0 +15.2 +1.8+13.4 +0.8
14 ▲5 Iowa Big Ten 3–0 +14.9 +6.4+8.6 +0.2
15 ▲6 Florida SEC 3–0 +13.9 +11.3+2.6 +0.3
16 ▲4 Mississippi State SEC 3–0 +13.9 +14.4−0.6 +0.3
17 ▼4 Oklahoma SEC 2–1 +13.6 +4.4+9.2 −0.5
18 ▼1 Oregon Big Ten 2–1 +12.8 +2.3+10.4 +0.1
19 ▼5 USC Big Ten 4–0 +12.7 +5.0+7.7 +0.8
20 ▲2 BYU Big 12 3–0 +12.3 +6.3+6.0 +0.2
21 ▼5 SMU ACC 2–1 +12.3 +8.1+4.2 −0.3
22 ▲4 Louisville ACC 2–1 +12.1 +3.1+9.1 −0.1
23 ▼5 Texas Tech Big 12 3–0 +11.8 +2.0+9.8 +1.0
24 ▼1 Pittsburgh ACC 3–0 +11.0 +3.0+8.0 +0.6
25 ▲2 Nebraska Big Ten 3–0 +10.7 +6.4+4.2 +0.1
26 ▲12 Iowa State Big 12 2–1 +10.3 +7.0+3.3 −0.2
27 ▼2 Kansas State Big 12 3–0 +10.0 +3.6+6.3 +0.1
28 ▲4 Michigan Big Ten 3–0 +9.4 −0.9+10.3 +0.7
29 ▲6 Duke ACC 3–0 +9.1 +1.4+7.6 +0.8
30 ▼2 Auburn SEC 2–1 +8.0 −0.2+8.3 −0.1
31 ▼7 Virginia ACC 2–1 +7.8 +4.3+3.5 0.0
32 ▼2 Missouri SEC 3–0 +7.7 +5.5+2.2 +0.2
33 ▲10 James Madison Sun Belt 3–0 +7.6 +4.4+3.2 +0.7
34 ▼1 Vanderbilt SEC 3–0 +7.5 −1.3+8.7 +0.5
35 ▲1 South Florida American 3–0 +7.3 +4.5+2.8 +1.2
36 ▼5 South Carolina SEC 2–1 +7.1 +2.6+4.5 −0.2
37 ▲26 Kentucky SEC 2–1 +6.9 +0.6+6.3 +0.2
38 ▲23 Northwestern Big Ten 2–0 +6.9 +3.5+3.5 +0.4
39 ▼2 Washington Big Ten 3–0 +6.8 −2.5+9.3 +0.7
40 ▲5 Illinois Big Ten 2–1 +6.7 −0.5+7.2 −0.7
41 ▼1 Arizona Big 12 2–1 +6.5 +2.2+4.3 0.0
42 ▲4 North Dakota State Mountain West 4–0 +6.1 +10.2−4.1 +1.0
43 ▲4 TCU Big 12 2–1 +5.8 +3.8+2.1 −0.2
44 ▲9 Houston Big 12 2–1 +5.8 +4.6+1.1 −0.2
45 ▼11 Boise State Pac-12 2–1 +5.7 +1.6+4.1 +0.4
46 ▼17 North Texas American 1–2 +5.5 −2.8+8.3 −0.2
47 ▲3 Florida State ACC 1–2 +5.4 −1.5+6.9 −0.1
48 ▼6 Baylor Big 12 2–1 +4.7 +2.3+2.3 0.0
49 ▼1 Arizona State Big 12 2–1 +4.6 +2.4+2.2 +0.4
50 ▼9 UCLA Big Ten 3–0 +4.5 +3.8+0.8 +0.4
51 ▲9 Virginia Tech ACC 3–0 +4.3 +8.4−4.1 +0.6
52 ▲7 New Mexico Mountain West 2–1 +4.2 +5.9−1.7 0.0
53 ▼14 Cincinnati Big 12 3–0 +4.1 +1.3+2.8 +0.6
54 ▼3 NC State ACC 1–2 +3.9 +3.4+0.5 −0.3
55 ▼11 Toledo MAC 2–1 +3.8 +1.7+2.0 −0.4
56 – Michigan State Big Ten 2–1 +3.5 −1.1+4.6 +0.5
57 ▼5 UCF Big 12 2–1 +3.4 +6.7−3.3 −0.2
58 ▼3 Army American 1–1 +2.9 +2.7+0.1 −0.6
59 ▲13 West Virginia Big 12 3–0 +2.5 +4.4−1.9 +0.7
60 ▼3 Western Michigan MAC 2–1 +2.3 +5.9−3.6 +0.5
61 ▲1 UTSA American 2–1 +2.3 +0.6+1.7 +0.8
62 ▼13 Maryland Big Ten 2–1 +2.2 +6.5−4.3 −0.4
63 ▲14 Wisconsin Big Ten 2–1 +2.1 −0.9+3.0 −0.1
64 ▼6 Wake Forest ACC 2–1 +1.6 −0.8+2.5 +0.3
65 ▼1 Tulane American 1–2 +1.3 −2.3+3.6 +0.3
66 ▲7 Minnesota Big Ten 2–1 +1.2 +1.4−0.2 0.0
67 ▲2 Fresno State Pac-12 2–1 +0.5 +3.2−2.8 +0.5
68 ▼14 Memphis American 3–1 +0.4 +1.0−0.6 −0.2
69 ▼4 Clemson ACC 2–1 +0.4 −5.7+6.0 +0.7
70 ▼2 Georgia Tech ACC 1–2 +0.2 −6.5+6.7 −1.5
71 ▲13 UConn Independent 2–1 −0.5 +3.4−3.8 −0.1
72 ▼6 Kansas Big 12 1–2 −1.0 −4.5+3.5 −1.0
73 ▼2 North Carolina ACC 2–1 −1.3 +1.1−2.4 0.0
74 ▼4 Washington State Pac-12 1–2 −1.5 −1.8+0.2 −0.1
75 – East Carolina American 1–2 −1.6 −4.8+3.2 −0.2
76 ▲5 Syracuse ACC 1–2 −3.1 −0.8−2.3 −0.9
77 ▲26 Texas State Pac-12 1–2 −3.5 −10.7+7.2 −0.7
78 ▲9 Temple American 1–2 −3.8 −1.2−2.5 −0.6
79 ▲1 Navy American 1–1 −4.0 −2.4−1.6 −0.1
80 ▲22 Tulsa American 3–0 −4.1 +6.5−10.6 +0.9
81 ▼7 San Diego State Pac-12 1–2 −4.1 −5.6+1.5 −0.6
82 ▼15 Colorado Big 12 2–1 −4.2 −0.6−3.6 +0.5
83 ▲14 Oklahoma State Big 12 2–1 −4.2 +2.3−6.6 −0.1
84 ▲21 Oregon State Pac-12 1–2 −4.3 −2.3−1.9 −0.8
85 ▼6 UNLV Mountain West 1–2 −4.7 −6.1+1.4 −0.1
86 ▼4 Old Dominion Sun Belt 1–2 −4.9 −6.2+1.3 −0.5
87 ▼11 Arkansas SEC 1–2 −5.0 −9.0+4.0 0.0
88 ▼2 California ACC 2–1 −5.1 −2.5−2.6 +0.8
89 ▲24 Liberty Conference USA 2–1 −5.1 +1.0−6.1 +0.3
90 ▼12 App State Sun Belt 3–0 −5.4 +2.1−7.5 +0.8
91 ▲3 South Alabama Sun Belt 2–1 −5.5 −1.6−3.9 +0.8
92 ▼4 Ohio MAC 1–2 −5.7 −3.7−1.9 +0.3
93 ▼3 Purdue Big Ten 1–2 −5.7 −2.5−3.1 −0.6
94 ▼3 Jacksonville State Conference USA 2–2 −5.9 +0.9−6.8 −0.4
95 ▼10 Louisiana Tech Sun Belt 1–2 −6.0 +0.1−6.1 −0.2
96 ▼13 Louisiana Sun Belt 2–1 −6.0 −1.7−4.4 +0.2
97 ▼1 Delaware Conference USA 2–1 −6.1 +0.8−6.9 0.0
98 – Air Force Mountain West 1–1 −6.4 −3.1−3.3 −0.8
99 ▲7 Miami (OH) MAC 1–2 −6.4 −3.0−3.5 −0.6
100 ▲14 Troy Sun Belt 2–1 −6.5 −1.5−5.0 +0.4
101 ▼9 Utah State Pac-12 0–3 −6.5 −5.9−0.6 −1.4
102 ▼1 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 1–2 −7.1 +1.8−8.8 −0.7
103 ▼3 Georgia State Sun Belt 2–1 −7.2 +7.7−14.9 +0.2
104 ▲3 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 1–2 −7.2 +4.7−12.0 −0.9
105 ▼16 Colorado State Pac-12 2–1 −7.3 −3.5−3.8 +0.3
106 ▼11 Florida International Conference USA 1–2 −7.6 −1.4−6.2 −1.2
107 ▲1 Rutgers Big Ten 0–3 −8.3 −9.1+0.9 −1.6
108 ▼9 Arkansas State Sun Belt 1–2 −8.4 −0.9−7.5 −0.1
109 ▲7 Marshall Sun Belt 2–1 −9.0 −5.8−3.3 +1.4
110 ▼6 Nevada Mountain West 1–2 −9.5 −2.8−6.8 −0.7
111 ▼1 Kennesaw State Conference USA 1–2 −9.6 −3.9−5.6 −0.4
112 – Stanford ACC 1–2 −10.2 −13.0+2.8 0.0
113 ▼20 Boston College ACC 2–1 −10.2 −8.0−2.2 +0.5
114 ▲1 Hawai'i Mountain West 1–2 −10.5 −10.3−0.2 +0.5
115 ▲18 Sam Houston Conference USA 1–2 −10.7 +1.6−12.3 −1.2
116 ▲4 Florida Atlantic American 2–1 −11.3 −8.0−3.3 +0.8
117 ▲2 New Mexico State Conference USA 1–2 −12.3 −2.1−10.2 −0.7
118 ▲3 UAB American 1–2 −12.4 −4.6−7.8 −0.1
119 ▼8 San José State Mountain West 2–2 −12.4 −6.1−6.4 0.0
120 ▼3 Missouri State Conference USA 1–2 −13.4 −9.6−3.8 −0.8
121 ▲4 Central Michigan MAC 2–1 −13.6 −6.3−7.3 +0.3
122 ▲2 Middle Tennessee Conference USA 2–1 −13.8 −2.8−11.0 −0.4
123 – Rice American 1–2 −13.9 −6.8−7.1 −0.6
124 ▼15 Southern Miss Sun Belt 1–2 −14.0 −8.5−5.5 0.0
125 ▲6 Western Kentucky Conference USA 0–3 −15.0 −12.7−2.3 0.0
126 ▲3 Northern Illinois Mountain West 0–3 −15.0 −8.4−6.7 −1.0
127 ▼9 Akron MAC 1–2 −15.1 −3.5−11.6 −0.1
128 ▼2 Massachusetts MAC 3–0 −15.6 +5.1−20.8 +0.3
129 ▼7 Buffalo MAC 1–2 −16.1 −6.9−9.1 +0.1
130 ▼2 Wyoming Mountain West 1–2 −17.4 −7.3−10.0 +0.3
131 ▼1 UTEP Mountain West 1–2 −17.4 −8.7−8.7 0.0
132 ▲6 Charlotte American 0–3 −18.7 −6.5−12.2 −1.0
133 ▼1 Ball State MAC 1–2 −19.1 −8.7−10.4 +0.1
134 ▼7 Eastern Michigan MAC 1–3 −19.1 −13.7−5.5 −0.4
135 ▲1 Sacramento State MAC 1–3 −20.2 −8.4−11.8 −0.2
136 ▼2 Bowling Green MAC 0–3 −20.9 −15.0−5.9 −0.2
137 – Kent State MAC 1–2 −20.9 −11.8−9.1 0.0
138 ▼3 UL Monroe Sun Belt 0–3 −21.0 −8.7−12.3 −0.9

Rating: points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s games, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: wins above what the team’s play was worth, from replaying every game 4,000 times. Injuries, which change the week’s predictions, are left out: one week’s news.

Top 25, week 4

  1. Indiana Hoosiers +24.8, 3–0
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes +24.4, 2–1
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish +24.3, 3–0
  4. Alabama Crimson Tide +21.9, 3–0
  5. Texas Longhorns +20.6, 3–0
  6. Miami Hurricanes +20.0, 3–0
  7. Georgia Bulldogs +19.8, 3–0
  8. Utah Utes +19.5, 3–0
  9. Penn State Nittany Lions +19.3, 3–0
  10. Tennessee Volunteers +15.9, 3–0
  11. LSU Tigers +15.7, 2–1
  12. Texas A&M Aggies +15.4, 2–1
  13. Ole Miss Rebels +15.2, 3–0
  14. Iowa Hawkeyes +14.9, 3–0
  15. Florida Gators +13.9, 3–0
  16. Mississippi State Bulldogs +13.9, 3–0
  17. Oklahoma Sooners +13.6, 2–1
  18. Oregon Ducks +12.8, 2–1
  19. USC Trojans +12.7, 4–0
  20. BYU Cougars +12.3, 3–0
  21. SMU Mustangs +12.3, 2–1
  22. Louisville Cardinals +12.1, 2–1
  23. Texas Tech Red Raiders +11.8, 3–0
  24. Pittsburgh Panthers +11.0, 3–0
  25. Nebraska Cornhuskers +10.7, 3–0

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the college football power rankings for week 4 of 2026?

Indiana, rated +24.8 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field, from a 3–0 start. Next: Ohio State (+24.4) and Notre Dame (+24.3).

How are these power rankings made?

Every team, FBS and FCS, is rated against the opponents it has played: each game’s final margin (capped at 50) and its luck-adjusted result, with the kicks, fumble bounces and conversions re-rolled at their expected rates. Last season’s rating is the starting point and fades as games are played. The rating is the points a team would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with a better record ranked lower?

Because records carry luck, and close games, fumble bounces and missed kicks even out. A team that won its games by luck is rated on how it played, like South Florida: 3–0, +1.2 wins of luck, ranked 35; one that lost by bad luck ranks higher than its record, like Rutgers (0–3, −1.6 wins of luck, ranked 107).

Predictions · Luck rankings 2026 · Expected wins · How the replays work