luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 season · before the first game

College football power rankings, week 1

All 138 FBS teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the points it would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field. Indiana is No. 1 at +26.6 points, Ohio State No. 2 (+23.0), Notre Dame No. 3 (+22.0).

Before a game is played the ratings are last season’s, pulled toward the middle: what the predictions for week 1 start from. The same ratings make our predictions.

#Team Rating Last season
1 Indiana Big Ten +26.6 +26.6
2 Ohio State Big Ten +23.0 +23.0
3 Notre Dame Independent +22.0 +22.0
4 Oregon Big Ten +21.5 +21.5
5 Texas Tech Big 12 +19.1 +19.1
6 Miami ACC +18.6 +18.6
7 Utah Big 12 +16.8 +16.8
8 Georgia SEC +16.3 +16.3
9 Ole Miss SEC +16.1 +16.1
10 Texas A&M SEC +13.9 +13.9
11 Alabama SEC +13.9 +13.9
12 Vanderbilt SEC +13.6 +13.6
13 USC Big Ten +13.5 +13.5
14 Penn State Big Ten +13.4 +13.4
15 Texas SEC +13.2 +13.2
16 Iowa Big Ten +13.2 +13.2
17 Washington Big Ten +13.1 +13.1
18 Oklahoma SEC +12.6 +12.6
19 BYU Big 12 +12.0 +12.0
20 Tennessee SEC +10.8 +10.8
21 James Madison Sun Belt +10.2 +10.2
22 SMU ACC +9.9 +9.9
23 Michigan Big Ten +9.9 +9.9
24 Missouri SEC +9.7 +9.7
25 South Florida American +9.4 +9.4
26 Louisville ACC +9.1 +9.1
27 Illinois Big Ten +8.6 +8.6
28 North Texas American +8.6 +8.6
29 Arizona Big 12 +8.3 +8.3
30 LSU SEC +8.0 +8.0
31 Auburn SEC +7.9 +7.9
32 Iowa State Big 12 +7.8 +7.8
33 Pittsburgh ACC +7.2 +7.2
34 TCU Big 12 +7.1 +7.1
35 Virginia ACC +7.0 +7.0
36 Clemson ACC +6.9 +6.9
37 Kansas State Big 12 +6.3 +6.3
38 Georgia Tech ACC +6.0 +6.0
39 South Carolina SEC +5.9 +5.9
40 Florida State ACC +5.8 +5.8
41 Old Dominion Sun Belt +5.4 +5.4
42 Florida SEC +5.3 +5.3
43 Arizona State Big 12 +5.2 +5.2
44 Toledo MAC +4.9 +4.9
45 Duke ACC +4.9 +4.9
46 NC State ACC +4.6 +4.6
47 East Carolina American +4.4 +4.4
48 Tulane American +4.0 +4.0
49 Arkansas SEC +4.0 +4.0
50 Boise State Pac-12 +4.0 +4.0
51 Houston Big 12 +3.9 +3.9
52 North Dakota State Mountain West +3.8 +3.8
53 Kansas Big 12 +3.2 +3.2
54 Nebraska Big Ten +3.1 +3.1
55 Kentucky SEC +2.9 +2.9
56 Memphis American +2.8 +2.8
57 Northwestern Big Ten +2.6 +2.6
58 Washington State Pac-12 +2.2 +2.2
59 Wake Forest ACC +2.1 +2.1
60 Cincinnati Big 12 +2.0 +2.0
61 UTSA American +1.8 +1.8
62 Mississippi State SEC +1.7 +1.7
63 Wisconsin Big Ten +1.5 +1.5
64 San Diego State Pac-12 +1.4 +1.4
65 Baylor Big 12 +1.3 +1.3
66 Navy American +1.3 +1.3
67 Rutgers Big Ten +1.0 +1.0
68 Minnesota Big Ten +0.5 +0.5
69 UNLV Mountain West +0.4 +0.4
70 Army American +0.3 +0.3
71 Texas State Pac-12 −0.2 −0.2
72 Michigan State Big Ten −0.6 −0.6
73 UCF Big 12 −0.8 −0.8
74 Western Michigan MAC −1.0 −1.0
75 Maryland Big Ten −1.5 −1.5
76 Ohio MAC −1.5 −1.5
77 Fresno State Pac-12 −1.9 −1.9
78 New Mexico Mountain West −1.9 −1.9
79 Virginia Tech ACC −1.9 −1.9
80 Colorado Big 12 −2.0 −2.0
81 UConn Independent −2.1 −2.1
82 Utah State Pac-12 −2.5 −2.5
83 California ACC −2.5 −2.5
84 UCLA Big Ten −2.9 −2.9
85 West Virginia Big 12 −3.5 −3.5
86 Marshall Sun Belt −3.8 −3.8
87 Louisiana Tech Sun Belt −3.9 −3.9
88 Miami (OH) MAC −3.9 −3.9
89 Western Kentucky Conference USA −3.9 −3.9
90 Hawai'i Mountain West −4.2 −4.2
91 Stanford ACC −4.5 −4.5
92 Purdue Big Ten −4.6 −4.6
93 Boston College ACC −4.6 −4.6
94 North Carolina ACC −4.8 −4.8
95 Troy Sun Belt −5.6 −5.6
96 Syracuse ACC −5.7 −5.7
97 Air Force Mountain West −6.1 −6.1
98 Jacksonville State Conference USA −6.6 −6.6
99 Temple American −7.1 −7.1
100 Kennesaw State Conference USA −7.4 −7.4
101 Georgia Southern Sun Belt −7.8 −7.8
102 Liberty Conference USA −7.9 −7.9
103 South Alabama Sun Belt −8.3 −8.3
104 Southern Miss Sun Belt −8.4 −8.4
105 Louisiana Sun Belt −8.4 −8.4
106 Central Michigan MAC −8.5 −8.5
107 Wyoming Mountain West −9.0 −9.0
108 Arkansas State Sun Belt −9.1 −9.1
109 Missouri State Conference USA −9.1 −9.1
110 Florida International Conference USA −9.1 −9.1
111 Oregon State Pac-12 −9.8 −9.8
112 Bowling Green MAC −9.8 −9.8
113 Oklahoma State Big 12 −10.1 −10.1
114 Buffalo MAC −10.4 −10.4
115 Delaware Conference USA −10.6 −10.6
116 Florida Atlantic American −10.7 −10.7
117 Nevada Mountain West −10.9 −10.9
118 App State Sun Belt −11.0 −11.0
119 San José State Mountain West −11.6 −11.6
120 Tulsa American −11.6 −11.6
121 Northern Illinois Mountain West −11.7 −11.7
122 Colorado State Pac-12 −11.8 −11.8
123 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt −12.0 −12.0
124 Eastern Michigan MAC −12.1 −12.1
125 UAB American −12.3 −12.3
126 Akron MAC −13.3 −13.3
127 Rice American −13.6 −13.6
128 Sacramento State MAC −13.7 −13.7
129 New Mexico State Conference USA −14.6 −14.6
130 UTEP Mountain West −14.7 −14.7
131 Georgia State Sun Belt −15.5 −15.5
132 Middle Tennessee Conference USA −15.7 −15.7
133 UL Monroe Sun Belt −15.8 −15.8
134 Ball State MAC −16.3 −16.3
135 Kent State MAC −16.9 −16.9
136 Charlotte American −17.6 −17.6
137 Sam Houston Conference USA −18.5 −18.5
138 Massachusetts MAC −27.0 −27.0

Rating: points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s games, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Injuries, which change the week’s predictions, are left out: one week’s news.

Top 25, week 1

  1. Indiana Hoosiers +26.6
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes +23.0
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish +22.0
  4. Oregon Ducks +21.5
  5. Texas Tech Red Raiders +19.1
  6. Miami Hurricanes +18.6
  7. Utah Utes +16.8
  8. Georgia Bulldogs +16.3
  9. Ole Miss Rebels +16.1
  10. Texas A&M Aggies +13.9
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide +13.9
  12. Vanderbilt Commodores +13.6
  13. USC Trojans +13.5
  14. Penn State Nittany Lions +13.4
  15. Texas Longhorns +13.2
  16. Iowa Hawkeyes +13.2
  17. Washington Huskies +13.1
  18. Oklahoma Sooners +12.6
  19. BYU Cougars +12.0
  20. Tennessee Volunteers +10.8
  21. James Madison Dukes +10.2
  22. SMU Mustangs +9.9
  23. Michigan Wolverines +9.9
  24. Missouri Tigers +9.7
  25. South Florida Bulls +9.4

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the college football power rankings for week 1 of 2026?

Indiana, rated +26.6 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. Next: Ohio State (+23.0) and Notre Dame (+22.0).

How are these power rankings made?

Every team, FBS and FCS, is rated against the opponents it has played: each game’s final margin (capped at 50) and its luck-adjusted result, with the kicks, fumble bounces and conversions re-rolled at their expected rates. Last season’s rating is the starting point and fades as games are played. The rating is the points a team would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with a better record ranked lower?

Because records carry luck, and close games, fumble bounces and missed kicks even out. A team that won its games by luck is rated on how it played.

Predictions · Luck rankings 2026 · Expected wins · How the replays work