luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 season · through Week 2

College football power rankings, week 3

All 138 FBS teams, ranked by how good each is once the luck is adjusted for: the points it would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field. Indiana is No. 1 at +26.8 points, Notre Dame No. 2 (+24.7), Ohio State No. 3 (+24.6).

Biggest climb since last week: Fresno State, up 28 to No. 69. Biggest drop: Kennesaw State, down 29 to No. 110. South Florida is 2–0 with +1.2 wins of luck in it, so it ranks below what the record says. The same ratings make our predictions.

#MoveTeam RecordRating This seasonLast season Luck
1 – Indiana Big Ten 2–0 +26.8 +7.8+19.0 +0.1
2 ▲1 Notre Dame Independent 2–0 +24.7 +9.6+15.2 +0.2
3 ▼1 Ohio State Big Ten 1–1 +24.6 +7.9+16.7 −0.7
4 ▲2 Alabama SEC 2–0 +22.0 +10.1+11.9 0.0
5 ▲2 Texas A&M SEC 2–0 +20.9 +8.1+12.8 +0.6
6 ▼2 Miami ACC 2–0 +20.3 +12.6+7.7 0.0
7 ▲2 Utah Big 12 2–0 +19.4 +6.7+12.7 0.0
8 ▼3 Texas SEC 2–0 +19.3 +1.5+17.8 +0.7
9 ▲1 Penn State Big Ten 2–0 +18.1 +9.3+8.8 +0.5
10 ▲6 Georgia SEC 2–0 +17.0 +8.1+8.9 0.0
11 ▲3 LSU SEC 2–0 +16.5 +6.2+10.3 0.0
12 ▲10 Tennessee SEC 2–0 +15.3 +10.6+4.8 +0.7
13 ▼2 Oklahoma SEC 1–1 +15.1 +5.8+9.3 −0.5
14 ▲1 USC Big Ten 3–0 +14.4 +3.8+10.6 +0.1
15 ▼3 Ole Miss SEC 2–0 +13.6 +1.4+12.3 +0.5
16 ▲7 SMU ACC 2–0 +13.4 +8.5+4.9 0.0
17 ▼9 Oregon Big Ten 1–1 +13.0 −1.8+14.9 +0.1
18 ▼1 Texas Tech Big 12 2–0 +13.0 +3.7+9.3 +0.7
19 ▼6 Iowa Big Ten 2–0 +12.7 −0.1+12.8 +0.2
20 ▲10 Mississippi State SEC 2–0 +12.3 +12.7−0.4 0.0
21 ▲4 Florida SEC 2–0 +12.1 +9.0+3.1 0.0
22 ▼1 BYU Big 12 2–0 +11.4 +1.4+9.9 +0.2
23 ▼5 Pittsburgh ACC 2–0 +11.3 +2.8+8.5 +0.5
24 ▼4 Virginia ACC 2–0 +11.3 +6.8+4.5 +0.1
25 ▲3 Kansas State Big 12 2–0 +11.2 +5.5+5.6 0.0
26 ▲1 Louisville ACC 1–1 +10.9 +3.0+8.0 −0.4
27 ▲6 Nebraska Big Ten 2–0 +10.8 +4.5+6.3 +0.1
28 ▲6 Auburn SEC 2–0 +10.3 +3.5+6.8 +0.2
29 ▲12 North Texas American 1–1 +10.1 −0.4+10.5 −0.1
30 ▲10 Missouri SEC 2–0 +9.8 +8.7+1.2 +0.1
31 ▼7 South Carolina SEC 2–0 +9.5 +6.3+3.1 0.0
32 – Michigan Big Ten 2–0 +8.8 −4.5+13.3 +0.7
33 ▼7 Vanderbilt SEC 2–0 +8.0 −0.9+8.9 +0.3
34 ▼3 Boise State Pac-12 1–1 +7.7 +0.9+6.8 +0.4
35 ▲3 Duke ACC 2–0 +7.6 +0.5+7.2 +0.8
36 ▲3 South Florida American 2–0 +7.6 +1.6+6.0 +1.2
37 ▼18 Washington Big Ten 2–0 +7.5 −6.3+13.7 +0.7
38 ▲5 Iowa State Big 12 1–1 +7.1 +3.9+3.2 −0.2
39 ▲12 Cincinnati Big 12 2–0 +6.7 +4.1+2.5 +0.1
40 ▼4 Arizona Big 12 1–1 +6.4 +1.2+5.3 −0.2
41 ▲13 UCLA Big Ten 2–0 +5.2 +6.2−1.1 +0.2
42 ▲17 Baylor Big 12 1–1 +5.0 +3.6+1.4 −0.2
43 ▼8 James Madison Sun Belt 2–0 +4.9 +0.1+4.8 +0.1
44 ▲9 Toledo MAC 1–1 +4.9 +4.7+0.2 −0.5
45 ▼16 Illinois Big Ten 1–1 +4.8 −6.1+10.9 −0.7
46 ▼1 North Dakota State Mountain West 3–0 +4.8 +6.2−1.5 +0.8
47 ▲2 TCU Big 12 1–1 +4.7 +2.8+1.9 −0.3
48 ▼11 Arizona State Big 12 1–1 +4.7 +3.7+1.0 −0.6
49 ▲24 Maryland Big Ten 2–0 +4.4 +10.6−6.2 +0.1
50 ▼3 Florida State ACC 1–1 +4.3 −3.6+7.9 +0.1
51 ▲18 NC State ACC 1–1 +4.2 +4.0+0.2 0.0
52 ▲12 UCF Big 12 1–1 +3.6 +6.9−3.3 −0.4
53 ▲2 Houston Big 12 2–0 +3.0 +1.7+1.3 +0.1
54 ▼12 Memphis American 2–1 +2.9 +2.2+0.8 −0.2
55 ▼5 Army American 1–1 +2.9 +2.4+0.5 −0.6
56 ▲11 Michigan State Big Ten 2–0 +2.8 −1.2+4.0 +0.5
57 ▲5 Western Michigan MAC 1–1 +2.7 +3.3−0.5 −0.1
58 ▼2 Wake Forest ACC 2–0 +2.7 +3.3−0.6 +0.4
59 ▲1 New Mexico Mountain West 2–0 +2.6 +5.0−2.5 0.0
60 ▲19 Virginia Tech ACC 2–0 +1.9 +4.0−2.1 0.0
61 ▲2 Northwestern Big Ten 1–0 +1.9 −0.4+2.3 0.0
62 ▲3 UTSA American 2–0 +1.9 +2.9−1.0 +0.8
63 ▼17 Kentucky SEC 1–1 +1.5 −5.5+7.0 0.0
64 ▼6 Tulane American 1–1 +0.6 −3.2+3.9 +0.4
65 ▲6 Clemson ACC 1–1 +0.4 −5.5+5.9 +0.4
66 ▼22 Kansas Big 12 1–1 −0.1 −3.4+3.2 −0.1
67 ▲1 Colorado Big 12 2–0 −0.2 +2.9−3.1 +0.8
68 ▼16 Georgia Tech ACC 0–2 −0.5 −10.0+9.6 −1.5
69 ▲28 Fresno State Pac-12 1–1 −0.8 0.0−0.8 0.0
70 ▼13 Washington State Pac-12 0–2 −1.3 −3.5+2.2 −0.1
71 ▲9 North Carolina ACC 2–0 −1.3 +1.4−2.7 +0.3
72 ▲16 West Virginia Big 12 2–0 −1.6 +1.3−2.9 +0.6
73 ▼25 Minnesota Big Ten 1–1 −1.9 −2.3+0.4 0.0
74 ▼4 San Diego State Pac-12 1–1 −2.1 +0.1−2.3 0.0
75 – East Carolina American 0–2 −2.2 −6.7+4.5 −0.7
76 ▲2 Arkansas SEC 1–1 −2.7 −3.6+0.9 0.0
77 ▼5 Wisconsin Big Ten 1–1 −2.9 −5.7+2.8 −0.2
78 ▲6 App State Sun Belt 2–0 −3.0 +6.1−9.1 +0.6
79 ▼13 UNLV Mountain West 1–2 −3.3 −4.7+1.4 −0.1
80 ▼4 Navy American 1–1 −3.4 −1.0−2.5 −0.1
81 ▼7 Syracuse ACC 1–1 −3.7 −1.1−2.6 −0.8
82 ▼5 Old Dominion Sun Belt 1–1 −4.0 −2.8−1.2 0.0
83 ▲8 Louisiana Sun Belt 1–1 −4.5 +1.0−5.5 0.0
84 ▼23 UConn Independent 1–1 −4.6 −3.3−1.3 −0.1
85 ▼3 Louisiana Tech Sun Belt 1–1 −5.0 +1.6−6.5 0.0
86 ▲17 California ACC 1–1 −5.1 −4.2−0.9 +0.8
87 – Temple American 1–1 −5.2 −4.2−0.9 −0.4
88 ▲1 Ohio MAC 1–1 −5.5 −5.60.0 +0.7
89 ▲11 Colorado State Pac-12 2–0 −5.6 +1.5−7.2 +0.3
90 ▲2 Purdue Big Ten 1–1 −5.6 −3.3−2.4 −0.3
91 ▲4 Jacksonville State Conference USA 1–2 −5.7 +2.4−8.0 −0.8
92 ▲21 Utah State Pac-12 0–2 −5.7 −4.7−0.9 −1.4
93 ▲1 Boston College ACC 1–1 −5.8 −4.3−1.5 +0.4
94 ▲7 South Alabama Sun Belt 1–1 −6.0 +0.5−6.5 +0.4
95 ▼2 Florida International Conference USA 1–1 −6.0 −0.8−5.3 −0.5
96 ▲15 Delaware Conference USA 1–1 −6.3 +2.0−8.3 −0.3
97 ▲21 Oklahoma State Big 12 1–1 −6.5 −2.9−3.6 −0.1
98 ▼12 Air Force Mountain West 1–1 −6.7 −3.6−3.1 −0.8
99 ▲8 Arkansas State Sun Belt 1–1 −6.8 +1.0−7.8 −0.1
100 ▲19 Georgia State Sun Belt 2–0 −7.0 +9.2−16.1 +0.4
101 ▼2 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 1–1 −7.2 +0.9−8.1 −0.4
102 ▲7 Tulsa American 2–0 −7.3 +1.6−8.9 +0.9
103 ▼5 Texas State Pac-12 0–2 −7.5 −12.1+4.5 −0.8
104 ▼21 Nevada Mountain West 1–1 −7.5 −3.2−4.4 −0.5
105 – Oregon State Pac-12 0–2 −8.0 −5.5−2.5 −0.8
106 ▲6 Miami (OH) MAC 1–1 −8.5 −4.7−3.8 0.0
107 ▲7 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 1–1 −8.6 +3.1−11.7 −0.6
108 – Rutgers Big Ten 0–2 −8.7 −6.1−2.7 −0.8
109 ▼19 Southern Miss Sun Belt 1–1 −8.8 −0.3−8.5 0.0
110 ▼29 Kennesaw State Conference USA 1–1 −9.0 −3.1−5.9 −0.4
111 ▼15 San José State Mountain West 2–1 −9.1 0.0−9.1 +0.6
112 ▼10 Stanford ACC 1–1 −9.2 −13.6+4.4 0.0
113 ▼28 Liberty Conference USA 1–1 −9.5 −2.0−7.5 +0.3
114 ▼8 Troy Sun Belt 2–0 −9.6 −5.1−4.5 +0.5
115 ▼5 Hawai'i Mountain West 1–2 −10.1 −10.1−0.1 +0.5
116 ▼12 Marshall Sun Belt 1–1 −10.8 −8.6−2.1 +0.6
117 ▲9 Missouri State Conference USA 1–1 −11.0 −4.3−6.7 0.0
118 ▲9 Akron MAC 1–1 −11.8 +1.7−13.5 −0.1
119 ▼3 New Mexico State Conference USA 1–2 −12.3 −1.4−10.9 −0.7
120 ▲11 Florida Atlantic American 1–1 −12.6 −7.6−5.0 +0.1
121 ▼6 UAB American 1–1 −13.2 −6.6−6.6 +0.1
122 ▲8 Buffalo MAC 1–1 −14.5 −3.0−11.6 +0.1
123 – Rice American 1–1 −14.8 −4.4−10.4 0.0
124 ▲8 Middle Tennessee Conference USA 1–1 −15.1 −0.7−14.4 −0.5
125 ▼4 Central Michigan MAC 1–1 −15.2 −5.8−9.4 +0.2
126 ▲7 Massachusetts MAC 2–0 −15.3 +6.2−21.5 +0.3
127 ▼7 Eastern Michigan MAC 1–2 −15.3 −8.7−6.6 −0.3
128 ▼4 Wyoming Mountain West 1–1 −15.7 −5.7−10.0 +0.3
129 ▼1 Northern Illinois Mountain West 0–2 −15.8 −9.0−6.8 −0.8
130 ▲5 UTEP Mountain West 1–1 −15.9 −4.6−11.3 0.0
131 ▼14 Western Kentucky Conference USA 0–2 −15.9 −11.5−4.4 0.0
132 ▲2 Ball State MAC 1–1 −16.2 −6.3−9.9 +0.1
133 ▼4 Sam Houston Conference USA 0–2 −16.6 −4.1−12.4 −1.2
134 ▼12 Bowling Green MAC 0–2 −17.8 −11.9−5.9 −0.2
135 ▲1 UL Monroe Sun Belt 0–2 −18.8 −4.9−13.9 −0.2
136 ▼11 Sacramento State MAC 1–2 −19.0 −3.6−15.4 0.0
137 – Kent State MAC 1–1 −19.2 −6.8−12.4 0.0
138 – Charlotte American 0–2 −21.7 −9.6−12.1 −0.8

Rating: points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. This season and last season add up to it: this season’s games, rated against the opponents played, and the start from last season’s final rating. Luck: wins above what the team’s play was worth, from replaying every game 4,000 times. Injuries, which change the week’s predictions, are left out: one week’s news.

Top 25, week 3

  1. Indiana Hoosiers +26.8, 2–0
  2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish +24.7, 2–0
  3. Ohio State Buckeyes +24.6, 1–1
  4. Alabama Crimson Tide +22.0, 2–0
  5. Texas A&M Aggies +20.9, 2–0
  6. Miami Hurricanes +20.3, 2–0
  7. Utah Utes +19.4, 2–0
  8. Texas Longhorns +19.3, 2–0
  9. Penn State Nittany Lions +18.1, 2–0
  10. Georgia Bulldogs +17.0, 2–0
  11. LSU Tigers +16.5, 2–0
  12. Tennessee Volunteers +15.3, 2–0
  13. Oklahoma Sooners +15.1, 1–1
  14. USC Trojans +14.4, 3–0
  15. Ole Miss Rebels +13.6, 2–0
  16. SMU Mustangs +13.4, 2–0
  17. Oregon Ducks +13.0, 1–1
  18. Texas Tech Red Raiders +13.0, 2–0
  19. Iowa Hawkeyes +12.7, 2–0
  20. Mississippi State Bulldogs +12.3, 2–0
  21. Florida Gators +12.1, 2–0
  22. BYU Cougars +11.4, 2–0
  23. Pittsburgh Panthers +11.3, 2–0
  24. Virginia Cavaliers +11.3, 2–0
  25. Kansas State Wildcats +11.2, 2–0

Questions

Who is No. 1 in the college football power rankings for week 3 of 2026?

Indiana, rated +26.8 points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field, from a 2–0 start. Next: Notre Dame (+24.7) and Ohio State (+24.6).

How are these power rankings made?

Every team, FBS and FCS, is rated against the opponents it has played: each game’s final margin (capped at 50) and its luck-adjusted result, with the kicks, fumble bounces and conversions re-rolled at their expected rates. Last season’s rating is the starting point and fades as games are played. The rating is the points a team would beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field; the same ratings make our predictions.

Why is a team with a better record ranked lower?

Because records carry luck, and close games, fumble bounces and missed kicks even out. A team that won its games by luck is rated on how it played, like South Florida: 2–0, +1.2 wins of luck, ranked 36; one that lost by bad luck ranks higher than its record, like Georgia Tech (0–2, −1.5 wins of luck, ranked 68).

Predictions · Luck rankings 2026 · Expected wins · How the replays work