luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Premier League 2015-16 · final

The Premier League table, adjusted for luck

Leicester have +13.3 points more than their play were worth, the luckiest side; Aston Villa −12.5, the unluckiest.

Replay points: each match replayed 4,000 times from both sides’ own shots, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. The tested result: after ten matches, replay points predict the rest of a season far better than the real table (how much better).

Adjusted for luck

Ordered by replay points. The arrows show how far each club sits from its place in the real table.

#TeamPlW–D–LGD PtsxGD Replay pts Luck, pts
1▲1 Arsenal 38 20–11–7 +29 71 +31.5 74.5 −3.5
2▲1 Tottenham 38 19–13–6 +34 70 +26.8 71.8 −1.8
3▲1 Man City 38 19–9–10 +30 66 +25.5 68.1 −2.1
4▼3 Leicester 38 23–12–3 +32 81 +20.1 67.7 +13.3
5▲3 Liverpool 38 16–12–10 +13 60 +20.4 65.5 −5.5
6 Southampton 38 18–9–11 +18 63 +14.5 63.3 −0.3
7▲3 Chelsea 38 12–14–12 +6 50 +5.6 56.9 −6.9
8▼3 Man United 38 19–9–10 +14 66 +3.7 56.4 +9.6
9▲2 Everton 38 11–14–13 +4 47 −3.8 52.1 −5.1
10▼3 West Ham 38 16–14–8 +14 62 +0.3 51.8 +10.2
11▲5 Bournemouth 38 11–9–18 −22 42 −6.4 47.3 −5.3
12▲1 Watford 38 12–9–17 −10 45 −9.4 47.0 −2.0
13▼1 Swansea 38 12–11–15 −10 47 −8.6 46.6 +0.4
14▼5 Stoke 38 14–9–15 −14 51 −14.8 45.9 +5.1
15 Crystal Palace 38 11–9–18 −12 42 −10.4 44.7 −2.7
16▼2 West Brom 38 10–13–15 −14 43 −10.1 43.7 −0.7
17▲1 Newcastle 38 9–10–19 −21 37 −15.7 42.1 −5.1
18▼1 Sunderland 38 9–12–17 −14 39 −18.7 39.8 −0.8
19 Norwich 38 9–7–22 −28 34 −20.5 38.5 −4.5
20 Aston Villa 38 3–8–27 −49 17 −30.0 29.5 −12.5

The real table

#TeamPlW–D–LGD PtsxGD Replay pts Luck, pts
1 Leicester 38 23–12–3 +32 81 +20.1 67.7 +13.3
2 Arsenal 38 20–11–7 +29 71 +31.5 74.5 −3.5
3 Tottenham 38 19–13–6 +34 70 +26.8 71.8 −1.8
4 Man City 38 19–9–10 +30 66 +25.5 68.1 −2.1
5 Man United 38 19–9–10 +14 66 +3.7 56.4 +9.6
6 Southampton 38 18–9–11 +18 63 +14.5 63.3 −0.3
7 West Ham 38 16–14–8 +14 62 +0.3 51.8 +10.2
8 Liverpool 38 16–12–10 +13 60 +20.4 65.5 −5.5
9 Stoke 38 14–9–15 −14 51 −14.8 45.9 +5.1
10 Chelsea 38 12–14–12 +6 50 +5.6 56.9 −6.9
11 Everton 38 11–14–13 +4 47 −3.8 52.1 −5.1
12 Swansea 38 12–11–15 −10 47 −8.6 46.6 +0.4
13 Watford 38 12–9–17 −10 45 −9.4 47.0 −2.0
14 West Brom 38 10–13–15 −14 43 −10.1 43.7 −0.7
15 Crystal Palace 38 11–9–18 −12 42 −10.4 44.7 −2.7
16 Bournemouth 38 11–9–18 −22 42 −6.4 47.3 −5.3
17 Sunderland 38 9–12–17 −14 39 −18.7 39.8 −0.8
18 Newcastle 38 9–10–19 −21 37 −15.7 42.1 −5.1
19 Norwich 38 9–7–22 −28 34 −20.5 38.5 −4.5
20 Aston Villa 38 3–8–27 −49 17 −30.0 29.5 −12.5

Luck, pts: points minus replay points. xGD: expected goals for minus against over the season. Seasons: 2015-16 · 2025-26 · 2026-27