Chelsea v 
Leeds
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Chelsea by 0.6 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 9%
- Goals expected
- Chelsea 1.8 Leeds 1.2
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Chelsea win by Leeds win by →
Premier League 2026-27 · Matchday 11 · Sat, Nov 21
Premier League predictions, matchday 11
Every Premier League match of the matchday, forecast from the goals each club has scored and let in this season, rated against the opponents it has played, and from where it finished last season. Win, draw or loss, as chances. No betting information goes in. Tested on 5,330 league matches of 2021-22 to 2025-26, each forecast from the matches before it, the favourite won 70.4% of the matches that had a winner.
Built on the results our source has through 20 Sept; it is updated by volunteers, so the latest matchdays can arrive late and the ratings catch up when they do.
Updated 10 Nov, 02:56 UTC. Each forecast is frozen at kickoff and scored when the match is played. How it has done
| Match | Kickoff | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Leeds | Sat, Nov 21 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Bournemouth v Forest | Sat, Nov 21 | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Coventry v Crystal Palace | Sat, Nov 21 | 34% | 28% | 39% |
| Hull v Brighton | Sat, Nov 21 | 24% | 25% | 50% |
| Newcastle v Arsenal | Sat, Nov 21 | 26% | 26% | 49% |
| Tottenham v Ipswich | Sat, Nov 21 | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Aston Villa v Sunderland | Sat, Nov 21 | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Liverpool v Man United | Sat, Nov 21 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Man City v Fulham | Sat, Nov 21 | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Brentford v Everton | Sat, Nov 21 | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Bournemouth v 
Forest
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Bournemouth by 0.5 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 13%1–0 11%2–1 9%
- Goals expected
- Bournemouth 1.6 Forest 1.1
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Bournemouth win by Forest win by →
Coventry v 
Crystal Palace
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Crystal Palace by 0.1 goals on average, even with Coventry at home.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 13%0–1 9%1–2 8%
- Goals expected
- Coventry 1.3 Crystal Palace 1.4
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Coventry win by Crystal Palace win by →
Hull v 
Brighton
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Brighton by 0.6 goals on average, even with Hull at home.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 12%1–2 9%0–1 9%
- Goals expected
- Hull 1.2 Brighton 1.8
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Hull win by Brighton win by →
Newcastle v 
Arsenal
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Arsenal by 0.5 goals on average, even with Newcastle at home.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 12%1–2 9%0–1 9%
- Goals expected
- Newcastle 1.2 Arsenal 1.7
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Newcastle win by Arsenal win by →
Tottenham v 
Ipswich
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Tottenham by 0.7 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 12%2–1 10%1–0 9%
- Goals expected
- Tottenham 1.8 Ipswich 1.1
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Tottenham win by Ipswich win by →
Aston Villa v 
Sunderland
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Aston Villa by 0.7 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 12%1–0 11%2–1 10%
- Goals expected
- Aston Villa 1.8 Sunderland 1.0
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Aston Villa win by Sunderland win by →
Liverpool v 
Man United
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Liverpool by 0.6 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 11%2–1 9%1–0 8%
- Goals expected
- Liverpool 1.8 Man United 1.2
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Liverpool win by Man United win by →
Man City v 
Fulham
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Man City by 1.5 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 2–0 13%1–0 12%3–0 10%
- Goals expected
- Man City 2.3 Fulham 0.7
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Man City win by Fulham win by →
Brentford v 
Everton
Sat, Nov 21 · 15:00 GMT
Brentford by 0.6 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 13%1–0 12%2–1 9%
- Goals expected
- Brentford 1.6 Everton 1.0
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Brentford win by Everton win by →
How good is it?
This season so far: 50 matches forecast, the favourite won 64.7% of those with a winner (ranked probability score 0.201, against 0.224 for the league’s usual shares of home wins, draws and away wins). The 50 matches played before the forecasts went live were forecast afterwards from what was known before kickoff.
Before it went live, the method was run through 10,660 league matches of ten seasons (the Premier League, La Liga and the Bundesliga, 2016-17 to 2025-26), each forecast only from the matches played before its matchday. Its two settings were picked on the first five seasons, and the table is the 5,330 matches of the five after, which it was never fitted to (2021-22 to 2025-26):
| Forecast | Winner picked right | Ranked probability score | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ours: goals | 70.4% | 0.200 | 0.983 |
| The table (points) only | 70.6% | 0.201 | 0.984 |
| Only the league’s usual shares of home wins, draws and away wins | 59.6% | 0.229 | 1.068 |
The ranked probability score and log loss grade the chances, not just the pick: lower is better. A draw is the hardest result to call; about one match in four ends level whatever the clubs, so “winner picked right” counts only matches that had a winner.
What goes in, and what doesn’t
- This season. Each club’s goal difference (a match counts at most 3 goals) and how many goals its matches have, rated against the opponents it has played.
- Last season. Each club starts from where it finished, with 90% of its distance from average kept (a club new to the league starts like last season’s weakest). The matches played pull it away from there. That share and the strength of the rating were picked on the first five seasons of the test.
- Home advantage. Worth about a third of a goal.
Not in it: line-ups, injuries and suspensions, transfers, shots and chances, and the betting line.