Premier League predictions, matchday 14

Arsenal by 0.9 goals on average, even with Tottenham at home.

Likeliest scores

0–1 12%1–1 12%0–2 11%

Goals expected

Tottenham 0.9 Arsenal 1.8

Bournemouth by 0.9 goals on average, with home advantage.

Likeliest scores

1–1 12%1–0 11%2–0 10%

Goals expected

Bournemouth 1.8 Hull 1.0

Newcastle by 0.8 goals on average, with home advantage.

Likeliest scores

1–1 11%2–1 10%1–0 10%

Goals expected

Newcastle 1.9 Sunderland 1.1

Everton by 0.5 goals on average, with home advantage.

Likeliest scores

1–1 13%1–0 13%0–0 9%

Goals expected

Everton 1.5 Fulham 0.9

Brighton by 0.3 goals on average, even with Forest at home.

Likeliest scores

1–1 13%0–1 9%1–2 9%

Goals expected

Forest 1.3 Brighton 1.6

Even: Chelsea and Liverpool are level on form, home advantage included.

Likeliest scores

1–1 11%1–2 8%2–1 8%

Goals expected

Chelsea 1.6 Liverpool 1.6

Leeds by 0.9 goals on average, with home advantage.

Likeliest scores

1–1 11%1–0 10%2–0 10%

Goals expected

Leeds 1.9 Ipswich 1.0

Man City by 0.4 goals on average, even with Brentford at home.

Likeliest scores

1–1 11%1–2 9%0–1 8%

Goals expected

Brentford 1.3 Man City 1.8

Man United by 1.3 goals on average, with home advantage.

Likeliest scores

2–0 12%1–0 11%1–1 10%

Goals expected

Man United 2.1 Coventry 0.8

Aston Villa by 0.6 goals on average, with home advantage.

Likeliest scores

1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 9%

Goals expected

Aston Villa 1.7 Crystal Palace 1.1