World Cup 2026 · final

The 2026 groups, adjusted for luck

France have +2.5 points more than their goals earn, the luckiest team; Jordan −2.2, the unluckiest.

Goal points: each match replayed 4,000 times from what both sides’ goals over the tournament say, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. This is a narrower kind of luck than the shot-based tables of other seasons on this site: with no shots we can’t tell whether a side made its goals, only whether its goals turned into points, as when it wins its one-goal games. After the first few matches the gap is mostly noise, and it doesn’t predict the rest of a season better than the real table does (the test).

Group A
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Mexico	3	+6	9	7.3	+1.7
2▲1	South Korea	3	−1	3	3.6	−0.6
3▼1	South Africa	3	−1	4	3.2	+0.8
4	Czech Republic	3	−4	1	2.3	−1.3

Group B
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Switzerland	3	+4	7	6.8	+0.2
2	Canada	3	+5	4	4.5	−0.5
3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3	−1	4	3.3	+0.7
4	Qatar	3	−8	1	2.2	−1.2

Group C
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	United States	3	+4	6	5.3	+0.7
2	Australia	3	0	4	4.2	−0.2
3	Paraguay	3	−2	4	3.4	+0.6
4	Turkey	3	−2	3	3.0	0.0

Group D
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Brazil	3	+6	7	6.6	+0.4
2	Morocco	3	+3	7	6.0	+1.0
3	Scotland	3	−3	3	2.4	+0.6
4	Haiti	3	−6	0	1.6	−1.6

Group E
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Germany	3	+6	6	5.4	+0.6
2	Ivory Coast	3	+2	6	5.2	+0.8
3	Ecuador	3	0	4	3.8	+0.2
4	Curaçao	3	−8	1	1.9	−0.9

Group F
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Netherlands	3	+6	7	6.3	+0.7
2	Japan	3	+4	5	5.5	−0.5
3	Sweden	3	0	4	3.8	+0.2
4	Tunisia	3	−10	0	1.4	−1.4

Group G
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Belgium	3	+4	5	6.1	−1.1
2	Egypt	3	+2	5	4.6	+0.4
3	Iran	3	0	3	3.8	−0.8
4	New Zealand	3	−6	1	2.1	−1.1

Group H
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Spain	3	+5	7	7.0	0.0
2	Cape Verde	3	0	3	4.0	−1.0
3	Uruguay	3	−1	2	3.1	−1.1
4	Saudi Arabia	3	−4	2	2.2	−0.2

Group I
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Argentina	3	+7	9	7.6	+1.4
2	Austria	3	0	4	3.9	+0.1
3	Algeria	3	−2	4	3.2	+0.8
4	Jordan	3	−5	0	2.2	−2.2

Group J
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	France	3	+8	9	6.5	+2.5
2	Norway	3	+1	6	5.3	+0.7
3	Senegal	3	+2	3	4.4	−1.4
4	Iraq	3	−11	0	0.9	−0.9

Group K
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	England	3	+4	7	6.7	+0.3
2	Croatia	3	0	6	4.0	+2.0
3	Ghana	3	0	4	3.7	+0.3
4	Panama	3	−4	0	1.9	−1.9

Group L
#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts	Goal pts	Luck, pts
1	Colombia	3	+3	7	5.5	+1.5
2	Portugal	3	+5	5	5.4	−0.4
3	DR Congo	3	+1	4	4.1	−0.1
4	Uzbekistan	3	−9	0	1.3	−1.3

Luck, pts: points minus goal points. Knockout ties aren’t in the groups; each one has its own page. Seasons: 2018 · 2022 · 2026