World Cup 2018 · final
The 2018 groups, adjusted for luck
Croatia have +3.9 points more than their play were worth, the luckiest team; Australia −3.3, the unluckiest.
Replay points: each match replayed 4,000 times from both sides’ own shots, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. The tested result: after ten matches, replay points predict the rest of a season far better than the real table (how much better).
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uruguay | 3 | +5 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| 2 |  Russia | 3 | +4 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 3 |  Saudi Arabia | 3 | −5 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 4 |  Egypt | 3 | −4 | 0 | 2.5 | −2.5 |
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brazil | 3 | +4 | 7 | 7.2 | −0.2 |
| 2▲1 |  Serbia | 3 | −2 | 3 | 4.5 | −1.5 |
| 3▼1 |  Switzerland | 3 | +1 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.8 |
| 4 |  Costa Rica | 3 | −3 | 1 | 1.9 | −0.9 |
| # | Team | Pl | GD | Pts | Replay pts | Luck, pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sweden | 3 | +3 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 2▲2 |  Germany | 3 | −2 | 3 | 5.4 | −2.4 |
| 3▼1 |  Mexico | 3 | −1 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 |
| 4▼1 |  South Korea | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
Luck, pts: points minus replay points. xGD: expected goals for minus against over the group matches. Knockout ties aren’t in the groups; each one has its own page. Seasons: 2018 · 2022 · 2026