luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

World Cup 2022 · final

The 2022 groups, adjusted for luck

Australia have +3.9 points more than their play were worth, the luckiest team; Canada −4.1, the unluckiest.

Replay points: each match replayed 4,000 times from both sides’ own shots, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. The tested result: after ten matches, replay points predict the rest of a season far better than the real table (how much better).

Group A
#TeamPlGD Pts Replay pts Luck, pts
1▲2 Ecuador 3 +1 4 5.4 −1.4
2▼1 Netherlands 3 +4 7 4.7 +2.3
3▼1 Senegal 3 +1 6 4.6 +1.4
4 Qatar 3 −6 0 1.7 −1.7
Group B
#TeamPlGD Pts Replay pts Luck, pts
1 England 3 +7 7 6.5 +0.5
2 United States 3 +1 5 3.9 +1.1
3 Iran 3 −3 3 3.5 −0.5
4 Wales 3 −5 1 2.6 −1.6
Group C
#TeamPlGD Pts Replay pts Luck, pts
1 Argentina 3 +3 6 7.0 −1.0
2▲1 Mexico 3 −1 4 4.4 −0.4
3▼1 Poland 3 0 4 3.5 +0.5
4 Saudi Arabia 3 −2 3 1.7 +1.3
Group D
#TeamPlGD Pts Replay pts Luck, pts
1 France 3 +3 6 6.4 −0.4
2▲2 Denmark 3 −2 1 3.9 −2.9
3 Tunisia 3 0 4 3.8 +0.2
4▼2 Australia 3 −1 6 2.1 +3.9
Group E
#TeamPlGD Pts Replay pts Luck, pts
1▲1 Croatia 3 +3 5 5.0 0.0
2▲2 Canada 3 −5 0 4.1 −4.1
3 Belgium 3 −1 4 3.9 +0.1
4▼3 Morocco 3 +3 7 3.6 +3.4
Group F
#TeamPlGD Pts Replay pts Luck, pts
1▲2 Germany 3 +1 4 6.9 −2.9
2 Spain 3 +6 4 5.2 −1.2
3▼2 Japan 3 +1 6 3.8 +2.2
4 Costa Rica 3 −8 3 0.9 +2.1
Group G
#TeamPlGD Pts Replay pts Luck, pts
1 Brazil 3 +2 6 7.2 −1.2
2 Switzerland 3 +1 6 5.3 +0.7
3 Cameroon 3 0 4 2.3 +1.7
4 Serbia 3 −3 1 2.0 −1.0
Group H
#TeamPlGD Pts Replay pts Luck, pts
1 Portugal 3 +2 6 5.1 +0.9
2 South Korea 3 0 4 4.1 −0.1
3 Uruguay 3 0 4 4.1 −0.1
4 Ghana 3 −2 3 3.0 0.0

Luck, pts: points minus replay points. xGD: expected goals for minus against over the group matches. Knockout ties aren’t in the groups; each one has its own page. Seasons: 2018 · 2022 · 2026