luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

La Liga 2015-16 · final

The La Liga table, adjusted for luck

Atlético have +13.6 points more than their play were worth, the luckiest side; Eibar −10.1, the unluckiest.

Replay points: each match replayed 4,000 times from both sides’ own shots, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. The tested result: after ten matches, replay points predict the rest of a season far better than the real table (how much better).

Adjusted for luck

Ordered by replay points. The arrows show how far each club sits from its place in the real table.

#TeamPlW–D–LGD PtsxGD Replay pts Luck, pts
1 Barcelona 38 29–4–5 +83 91 +58.7 89.7 +1.3
2 Real Madrid 38 28–6–4 +76 90 +36.4 80.6 +9.4
3 Atlético 38 28–4–6 +45 88 +27.2 74.4 +13.6
4▲3 Sevilla 38 14–10–14 +1 52 +15.7 61.8 −9.8
5 Athletic 38 18–8–12 +13 62 +9.5 60.3 +1.7
6 Celta 38 17–9–12 −8 60 +0.3 53.6 +6.4
7▲6 Eibar 38 11–10–17 −12 43 +0.3 53.1 −10.1
8▲1 Real Sociedad 38 13–9–16 −3 48 +0.1 53.0 −5.0
9▼5 Villarreal 38 18–10–10 +9 64 −2.8 51.7 +12.3
10▼2 Málaga 38 12–12–14 +3 48 +0.3 51.3 −3.3
11 Valencia 38 11–11–16 −2 44 −10.3 47.0 −3.0
12▲6 Rayo 38 9–11–18 −21 38 −9.7 46.7 −8.7
13▲2 Deportivo 38 8–18–12 −16 42 −6.6 46.2 −4.2
14 Espanyol 38 12–7–19 −34 43 −9.1 45.0 −2.0
15▼5 Betis 38 11–12–15 −18 45 −15.8 43.0 +2.0
16 Sporting 38 10–9–19 −22 39 −17.3 41.1 −2.1
17▲2 Getafe 38 9–9–20 −30 36 −16.5 41.0 −5.0
18▼1 Granada 38 10–9–19 −23 39 −18.4 39.5 −0.5
19▼7 Las Palmas 38 12–8–18 −8 44 −21.0 39.2 +4.8
20 Levante 38 8–8–22 −33 32 −21.0 37.4 −5.4

The real table

#TeamPlW–D–LGD PtsxGD Replay pts Luck, pts
1 Barcelona 38 29–4–5 +83 91 +58.7 89.7 +1.3
2 Real Madrid 38 28–6–4 +76 90 +36.4 80.6 +9.4
3 Atlético 38 28–4–6 +45 88 +27.2 74.4 +13.6
4 Villarreal 38 18–10–10 +9 64 −2.8 51.7 +12.3
5 Athletic 38 18–8–12 +13 62 +9.5 60.3 +1.7
6 Celta 38 17–9–12 −8 60 +0.3 53.6 +6.4
7 Sevilla 38 14–10–14 +1 52 +15.7 61.8 −9.8
8 Málaga 38 12–12–14 +3 48 +0.3 51.3 −3.3
9 Real Sociedad 38 13–9–16 −3 48 +0.1 53.0 −5.0
10 Betis 38 11–12–15 −18 45 −15.8 43.0 +2.0
11 Valencia 38 11–11–16 −2 44 −10.3 47.0 −3.0
12 Las Palmas 38 12–8–18 −8 44 −21.0 39.2 +4.8
13 Eibar 38 11–10–17 −12 43 +0.3 53.1 −10.1
14 Espanyol 38 12–7–19 −34 43 −9.1 45.0 −2.0
15 Deportivo 38 8–18–12 −16 42 −6.6 46.2 −4.2
16 Sporting 38 10–9–19 −22 39 −17.3 41.1 −2.1
17 Granada 38 10–9–19 −23 39 −18.4 39.5 −0.5
18 Rayo 38 9–11–18 −21 38 −9.7 46.7 −8.7
19 Getafe 38 9–9–20 −30 36 −16.5 41.0 −5.0
20 Levante 38 8–8–22 −33 32 −21.0 37.4 −5.4

Luck, pts: points minus replay points. xGD: expected goals for minus against over the season. Seasons: 2015-16 · 2025-26 · 2026-27