luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

La Liga 2026-27 · after matchday 7

The La Liga table, adjusted for luck

Betis have +5.1 points more than their goals earn, the luckiest side so far; Espanyol −2.7, the unluckiest.

Goal points: each match replayed 4,000 times from what both sides’ goals over the season say, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. This is a narrower kind of luck than the shot-based tables of other seasons on this site: with no shots we can’t tell whether a side made its goals, only whether its goals turned into points, as when it wins its one-goal games. After the first ten matchdays the gap is mostly noise, and it doesn’t predict the rest of a season better than the real table does (the test).

In the points the goals earn

Ordered by goal points. The arrows show how far each club sits from its place in the real table.

#TeamPlW–D–LGD Pts Goal pts Luck, pts
1 Barcelona 7 7–0–0 +24 21 17.0 +4.0
2▲2 Real Madrid 7 5–0–2 +10 15 14.1 +0.9
3▼1 Atlético 7 5–1–1 +9 16 13.7 +2.3
4▲2 Alavés 7 3–2–2 +5 11 12.7 −1.7
5▲2 Deportivo 7 2–4–1 +2 10 11.0 −1.0
6▼3 Betis 7 5–1–1 +2 16 10.9 +5.1
7▲2 Villarreal 7 2–2–3 +1 8 10.3 −2.3
8▼3 Sevilla 7 4–1–2 +1 13 10.2 +2.8
9▲6 Espanyol 7 2–1–4 0 7 9.7 −2.7
10▲4 Celta 7 1–4–2 +2 7 9.6 −2.6
11▼1 Athletic 6 2–2–2 +1 8 9.1 −1.1
12▼1 Getafe 7 2–2–3 −3 8 7.7 +0.3
13▲5 Elche 7 1–2–4 −6 5 7.7 −2.7
14▼6 Real Sociedad 7 3–1–3 −4 10 7.6 +2.4
15▼3 Rayo 7 2–2–3 −5 8 7.6 +0.4
16 Racing 7 2–1–4 −10 7 7.3 −0.3
17▼4 Osasuna 7 2–2–3 −7 8 6.6 +1.4
18▼1 Levante 6 1–2–3 −4 5 6.4 −1.4
19 Valencia 7 1–1–5 −9 4 5.8 −1.8
20 Málaga 7 0–3–4 −9 3 5.1 −2.1

The real table

#TeamPlW–D–LGD Pts Goal pts Luck, pts
1 Barcelona 7 7–0–0 +24 21 17.0 +4.0
2 Atlético 7 5–1–1 +9 16 13.7 +2.3
3 Betis 7 5–1–1 +2 16 10.9 +5.1
4 Real Madrid 7 5–0–2 +10 15 14.1 +0.9
5 Sevilla 7 4–1–2 +1 13 10.2 +2.8
6 Alavés 7 3–2–2 +5 11 12.7 −1.7
7 Deportivo 7 2–4–1 +2 10 11.0 −1.0
8 Real Sociedad 7 3–1–3 −4 10 7.6 +2.4
9 Villarreal 7 2–2–3 +1 8 10.3 −2.3
10 Athletic 6 2–2–2 +1 8 9.1 −1.1
11 Getafe 7 2–2–3 −3 8 7.7 +0.3
12 Rayo 7 2–2–3 −5 8 7.6 +0.4
13 Osasuna 7 2–2–3 −7 8 6.6 +1.4
14 Celta 7 1–4–2 +2 7 9.6 −2.6
15 Espanyol 7 2–1–4 0 7 9.7 −2.7
16 Racing 7 2–1–4 −10 7 7.3 −0.3
17 Levante 6 1–2–3 −4 5 6.4 −1.4
18 Elche 7 1–2–4 −6 5 7.7 −2.7
19 Valencia 7 1–1–5 −9 4 5.8 −1.8
20 Málaga 7 0–3–4 −9 3 5.1 −2.1

Luck, pts: points minus goal points. Seasons: 2015-16 · 2025-26 · 2026-27