luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

La Liga 2025-26 · final

The La Liga table, adjusted for luck

Barcelona have +10.7 points more than their goals earn, the luckiest side; Osasuna −6.4, the unluckiest.

Goal points: each match replayed 4,000 times from what both sides’ goals over the season say, and the team given the points it earns on average, three for a win, one for a draw. This is a narrower kind of luck than the shot-based tables of other seasons on this site: with no shots we can’t tell whether a side made its goals, only whether its goals turned into points, as when it wins its one-goal games. After the first ten matchdays the gap is mostly noise, and it doesn’t predict the rest of a season better than the real table does (the test).

In the points the goals earn

Ordered by goal points. The arrows show how far each club sits from its place in the real table.

#TeamPlW–D–LGD Pts Goal pts Luck, pts
1 Barcelona 38 31–1–6 +59 94 83.3 +10.7
2 Real Madrid 38 27–5–6 +42 86 76.8 +9.2
3 Villarreal 38 22–6–10 +26 72 65.3 +6.7
4 Atlético 38 21–6–11 +18 69 64.5 +4.5
5 Betis 38 15–15–8 +11 60 59.4 +0.6
6 Celta 38 14–12–12 +5 54 55.6 −1.6
7▲3 Real Sociedad 38 11–13–14 −2 46 51.6 −5.6
8 Rayo 38 12–14–12 −3 50 51.4 −1.4
9 Valencia 38 13–10–15 −9 49 49.3 −0.3
10▲6 Osasuna 38 11–9–18 −6 42 48.4 −6.4
11▼4 Getafe 38 15–6–17 −6 51 47.9 +3.1
12▲1 Elche 38 10–13–15 −8 43 47.0 −4.0
13▲4 Mallorca 38 11–9–18 −10 42 46.3 −4.3
14 Alavés 38 11–10–17 −12 43 44.8 −1.8
15▼4 Espanyol 38 12–10–16 −12 46 44.7 +1.3
16▲2 Levante 38 11–9–18 −14 42 44.0 −2.0
17▲2 Girona 38 9–14–15 −16 41 43.8 −2.8
18▼6 Athletic 38 13–6–19 −15 45 43.6 +1.4
19▼4 Sevilla 38 12–7–19 −14 43 43.3 −0.3
20 Oviedo 38 6–11–21 −34 29 30.6 −1.6

The real table

#TeamPlW–D–LGD Pts Goal pts Luck, pts
1 Barcelona 38 31–1–6 +59 94 83.3 +10.7
2 Real Madrid 38 27–5–6 +42 86 76.8 +9.2
3 Villarreal 38 22–6–10 +26 72 65.3 +6.7
4 Atlético 38 21–6–11 +18 69 64.5 +4.5
5 Betis 38 15–15–8 +11 60 59.4 +0.6
6 Celta 38 14–12–12 +5 54 55.6 −1.6
7 Getafe 38 15–6–17 −6 51 47.9 +3.1
8 Rayo 38 12–14–12 −3 50 51.4 −1.4
9 Valencia 38 13–10–15 −9 49 49.3 −0.3
10 Real Sociedad 38 11–13–14 −2 46 51.6 −5.6
11 Espanyol 38 12–10–16 −12 46 44.7 +1.3
12 Athletic 38 13–6–19 −15 45 43.6 +1.4
13 Elche 38 10–13–15 −8 43 47.0 −4.0
14 Alavés 38 11–10–17 −12 43 44.8 −1.8
15 Sevilla 38 12–7–19 −14 43 43.3 −0.3
16 Osasuna 38 11–9–18 −6 42 48.4 −6.4
17 Mallorca 38 11–9–18 −10 42 46.3 −4.3
18 Levante 38 11–9–18 −14 42 44.0 −2.0
19 Girona 38 9–14–15 −16 41 43.8 −2.8
20 Oviedo 38 6–11–21 −34 29 30.6 −1.6

Luck, pts: points minus goal points. Seasons: 2015-16 · 2025-26 · 2026-27