Osasuna v 
Málaga
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Osasuna by 0.6 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 13%1–0 13%2–0 10%
- Goals expected
- Osasuna 1.5 Málaga 0.9
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Osasuna win by Málaga win by →
La Liga 2026-27 · Matchday 13 · Sun, Nov 22
La Liga predictions, matchday 13
Every La Liga match of the matchday, forecast from the goals each club has scored and let in this season, rated against the opponents it has played, and from where it finished last season. Win, draw or loss, as chances. No betting information goes in. Tested on 5,330 league matches of 2021-22 to 2025-26, each forecast from the matches before it, the favourite won 70.4% of the matches that had a winner.
Built on the results our source has through 20 Sept; it is updated by volunteers, so the latest matchdays can arrive late and the ratings catch up when they do.
Updated 10 Nov, 02:56 UTC. Each forecast is frozen at kickoff and scored when the match is played. How it has done
| Match | Kickoff | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna v Málaga | Sun, Nov 22 | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Athletic v Espanyol | Sun, Nov 22 | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Real Madrid v Celta | Sun, Nov 22 | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Getafe v Atlético | Sun, Nov 22 | 19% | 29% | 52% |
| Sevilla v Betis | Sun, Nov 22 | 33% | 28% | 38% |
| Alavés v Deportivo | Sun, Nov 22 | 50% | 27% | 22% |
| Barcelona v Villarreal | Sun, Nov 22 | 69% | 17% | 13% |
| Rayo v Valencia | Sun, Nov 22 | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Levante v Elche | Sun, Nov 22 | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Racing v Real Sociedad | Sun, Nov 22 | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Athletic v 
Espanyol
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Athletic by 0.6 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–0 13%1–1 13%2–0 10%
- Goals expected
- Athletic 1.5 Espanyol 0.9
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Athletic win by Espanyol win by →
Real Madrid v 
Celta
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Real Madrid by 1.4 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 2–0 13%1–0 12%1–1 9%
- Goals expected
- Real Madrid 2.2 Celta 0.7
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Real Madrid win by Celta win by →
Getafe v 
Atlético
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Atlético by 0.7 goals on average, even with Getafe at home.
- Likeliest scores
- 0–1 16%1–1 13%0–0 12%
- Goals expected
- Getafe 0.8 Atlético 1.4
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Getafe win by Atlético win by →
Sevilla v 
Betis
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Betis by 0.1 goals on average, even with Sevilla at home.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 13%0–1 10%1–0 9%
- Goals expected
- Sevilla 1.2 Betis 1.4
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Sevilla win by Betis win by →
Alavés v 
Deportivo
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Alavés by 0.6 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 13%1–0 13%2–0 10%
- Goals expected
- Alavés 1.6 Deportivo 0.9
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Alavés win by Deportivo win by →
Barcelona v 
Villarreal
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Barcelona by 1.6 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 2–1 9%3–1 8%2–0 8%
- Goals expected
- Barcelona 2.7 Villarreal 1.1
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Barcelona win by Villarreal win by →
Rayo v 
Valencia
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Rayo by 0.5 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 13%1–0 12%0–0 9%
- Goals expected
- Rayo 1.5 Valencia 1.0
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Rayo win by Valencia win by →
Levante v 
Elche
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Levante by 0.2 goals on average, with home advantage.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 8%
- Goals expected
- Levante 1.6 Elche 1.3
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Levante win by Elche win by →
Racing v 
Real Sociedad
Sun, Nov 22 · 16:00 CET
Real Sociedad by 0.1 goals on average, even with Racing at home.
- Likeliest scores
- 1–1 12%1–2 8%2–1 8%
- Goals expected
- Racing 1.5 Real Sociedad 1.6
6+54321Draw123456+ ← Racing win by Real Sociedad win by →
How good is it?
This season so far: 69 matches forecast, the favourite won 69.2% of those with a winner (ranked probability score 0.195, against 0.230 for the league’s usual shares of home wins, draws and away wins). The 69 matches played before the forecasts went live were forecast afterwards from what was known before kickoff.
Before it went live, the method was run through 10,660 league matches of ten seasons (the Premier League, La Liga and the Bundesliga, 2016-17 to 2025-26), each forecast only from the matches played before its matchday. Its two settings were picked on the first five seasons, and the table is the 5,330 matches of the five after, which it was never fitted to (2021-22 to 2025-26):
| Forecast | Winner picked right | Ranked probability score | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ours: goals | 70.4% | 0.200 | 0.983 |
| The table (points) only | 70.6% | 0.201 | 0.984 |
| Only the league’s usual shares of home wins, draws and away wins | 59.6% | 0.229 | 1.068 |
The ranked probability score and log loss grade the chances, not just the pick: lower is better. A draw is the hardest result to call; about one match in four ends level whatever the clubs, so “winner picked right” counts only matches that had a winner.
What goes in, and what doesn’t
- This season. Each club’s goal difference (a match counts at most 3 goals) and how many goals its matches have, rated against the opponents it has played.
- Last season. Each club starts from where it finished, with 90% of its distance from average kept (a club new to the league starts like last season’s weakest). The matches played pull it away from there. That share and the strength of the rating were picked on the first five seasons of the test.
- Home advantage. Worth about a third of a goal.
Not in it: line-ups, injuries and suspensions, transfers, shots and chances, and the betting line.