2026-27 regular season · November 4, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sharks at Kings, Nov 4, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kings beat the Sharks 7–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 18:37 left): Adrian Kempe scored on a snap shot from 22 feet, worth 12 points of win probability to the Kings.
Final
 San Jose Sharks | 2 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Kings lucky · −33 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sharks win 3, Kings win 7.
- 1 SJS 5 LAK 1
- 2 SJS 5 LAK 3
- 3 SJS 4 LAK 3
- 4 SJS 2 LAK 3
- 5 SJS 4 LAK 5
- 6 SJS 4 LAK 6
- 7 SJS 0 LAK 3
- 8 SJS 2 LAK 5
- 9 SJS 1 LAK 5
- 10 SJS 0 LAK 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Kings by 0.8, 63% to win. The Kings won by 5: the pick was right. The final margin was 4.2 goals from ours; 6% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sharks win | 37.2% |
| Kings win | 62.8% |
| Middle 50%: Sharks by 1 to Kings by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Sharks by 3 to Kings by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Sharks by 4 to Kings by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Kings by 1 | 22.4% |
| Exactly Sharks by 1 | 17.3% |
| Exactly Kings by 3 | 15.9% |
| Exactly Kings by 2 | 11.6% |
| Exactly Kings by 4 | 8.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Nov 4, 9:45 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sharks win 33% of them, Kings 67%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sharks by 3+ | 10.9% |
| Sharks by 2 | 6.2% |
| Sharks by 1 | 16.3% |
| Kings by 1 | 17.4% |
| Kings by 2 | 11.1% |
| Kings by 3+ | 38.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sharks | 47 | 2 | 2.68 | −0.68 |
 Kings | 44 | 7 | 3.79 | +3.21 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:17 | Hooking on the Kings (Artemi Panarin): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SJS |
| P1 10:32 | High sticking on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% LAK |
| P1 6:50 | Tripping on the Kings (Adrian Kempe): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P1 2:41 | Tripping on the Sharks (Tyler Toffoli): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% LAK |
| P2 16:17 | Hooking on the Kings (Joel Armia): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SJS |
| P2 5:05 | Holding on the Sharks (Filip Bystedt): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% LAK |
| P3 16:43 | Tripping on the Kings (Joel Armia): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SJS |
| P3 16:16 | Holding on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% LAK |
| P3 14:09 | Interference on the Kings (Erik Gustafsson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SJS |
| P3 11:54 | Cross checking on the Kings (Scott Laughton): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SJS |
| P3 7:16 | Slashing on the Sharks (Zack Ostapchuk): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% LAK |
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:37 | Adrian Kempe scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 21% chance | +12% LAK | – |
| 2 | P1 15:17 | Hooking on the Kings (Artemi Panarin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% SJS | – |
| 3 | P1 10:32 | High sticking on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% LAK | – |
| 4 | P1 6:50 | Tripping on the Kings (Adrian Kempe): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% SJS | – |
| 5 | P1 3:51 | Adrian Kempe scored on a slap shot from 22 feetShooting · 13% chance | +12% LAK | – |
| 6 | P1 1:22 | Quinton Byfield scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 24% chance | +7% LAK | – |
| 7 | P2 14:53 | Macklin Celebrini scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 6% chance | +8% SJS | – |
| 8 | P2 8:50 | Erik Haula scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 11% chance | +7% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sharks 11% · Kings 89%
- Final margin
- Kings by 5
- Luck in goals
- 2.9 for the Kings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Sharks 33% · Kings 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 6, 2026-27
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