2026-27 regular season · November 7, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Lightning at Wild, Nov 7, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Lightning beat the Wild 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Wild had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Wild.
The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Lightning won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Lightning.
Final (OT)
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Wild | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Lightning about even · −24 Wild
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lightning win 8, Wild win 2.
- 1 TBL 6 MIN 0
- 2 TBL 7 MIN 2
- 3 TBL 4 MIN 0
- 4 TBL 4 MIN 1
- 5 TBL 4 MIN 1
- 6 TBL 2 MIN 0
- 7 TBL 4 MIN 3
- 8 TBL 3 MIN 2
- 9 TBL 1 MIN 2
- 10 TBL 2 MIN 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Wild by 0.3, 55% to win. The Lightning won by 1, a result we gave 45%. The final margin was 1.3 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lightning win | 44.7% |
| Wild win | 55.3% |
| Middle 50%: Lightning by 2 to Wild by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Lightning by 4 to Wild by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Lightning by 4 to Wild by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Wild by 1 | 21.7% |
| Exactly Lightning by 1 | 19.3% |
| Exactly Wild by 3 | 13.4% |
| Exactly Wild by 2 | 10.5% |
| Exactly Lightning by 3 | 9.9% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Nov 7, 6:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lightning win 76% of them, Wild 24%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lightning by 3+ | 47.1% |
| Lightning by 2 | 11.5% |
| Lightning by 1 | 17.2% |
| Wild by 1 | 15.5% |
| Wild by 2 | 4.4% |
| Wild by 3+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lightning | 56 | 3 | 4.06 | −1.06 |
 Wild | 28 | 3 | 1.47 | +1.53 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:14 | Too many men on the ice on the Lightning (TBL): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
| P1 10:18 | Roughing on the Wild (Nick Foligno): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% TBL |
| P1 2:36 | Interference on the Lightning (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
| P2 18:46 | Slashing on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
| P2 7:04 | Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Wild (Ryan Hartman): 4 minutes on the power play | +5% TBL |
| P2 2:37 | High sticking on the Wild (Quinn Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P3 5:23 | Holding on the Wild (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% TBL |
| OT 2:30 | Tripping on the Wild (Matt Boldy): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% TBL |
When it happened
Wild’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:05 | Blake Coleman scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 4% chance | +15% MIN | – |
| 2 | P1 17:02 | Maxim Shabanov scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance | +11% MIN | – |
| 3 | P2 3:26 | Jake Guentzel scored on a slap shot from 39 feetShooting · 6% chance | +14% TBL | – |
| 4 | P3 13:11 | Maxim Shabanov scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 11% chance | +12% MIN | – |
| 5 | P3 6:16 | Jake Guentzel scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 10% chance | +10% TBL | – |
| 6 | P3 3:31 | Charle-Edouard D'Astous scored on a slap shot from 53 feetShooting · 3% chance | +39% TBL | – |
| 7 | OT | The game turned hereThe Lightning won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +51% TBL | – |
| 8 | OT 2:30 | Tripping on the Wild (Matt Boldy): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +12% TBL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lightning 87% · Wild 13%
- Final margin
- Lightning by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Wild
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lightning by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Lightning 76% · Wild 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 6, 2026-27
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