2026-27 regular season · November 4, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blackhawks at Panthers, Nov 4, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Blackhawks 5–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 15:17 left): Sandis Vilmanis scored on a wrist shot from 9 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Chicago Blackhawks | 3 |
|---|---|
 Florida Panthers | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Panthers lucky · −28 Blackhawks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blackhawks win 3, Panthers win 7.
- 1 CHI 5 FLA 2
- 2 CHI 2 FLA 1
- 3 CHI 2 FLA 1
- 4 CHI 0 FLA 1
- 5 CHI 3 FLA 4
- 6 CHI 1 FLA 3
- 7 CHI 1 FLA 4
- 8 CHI 0 FLA 3
- 9 CHI 0 FLA 4
- 10 CHI 1 FLA 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Panthers by 1.1, 68% to win. The Panthers won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 65% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blackhawks win | 32.1% |
| Panthers win | 67.9% |
| Middle 50%: Blackhawks by 1 to Panthers by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Blackhawks by 3 to Panthers by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Blackhawks by 4 to Panthers by 6 | 95% |
| Exactly Panthers by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 17.7% |
| Exactly Blackhawks by 1 | 15.7% |
| Exactly Panthers by 2 | 12.3% |
| Exactly Panthers by 4 | 9.3% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Nov 4, 1:20 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Blackhawks win 28% of them, Panthers 72%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blackhawks by 3+ | 4.9% |
| Blackhawks by 2 | 5.5% |
| Blackhawks by 1 | 17.3% |
| Panthers by 1 | 18.9% |
| Panthers by 2 | 12.9% |
| Panthers by 3+ | 40.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blackhawks | 30 | 3 | 1.77 | +1.23 |
 Panthers | 44 | 4 | 3.30 | +0.70 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 7:51 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P1 0:11 | Slashing on the Panthers (Sam Bennett): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CHI |
| P2 14:06 | Tripping on the Panthers (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CHI |
| P2 5:48 | Interference on the Blackhawks (Ian Cole): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% FLA |
| P3 19:34 | Tripping on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% CHI |
| P3 12:24 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Alex Vlasic): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% FLA |
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 15:17 | Sandis Vilmanis scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% FLA | – |
| 2 | P1 7:51 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% FLA | – |
| 3 | P1 7:31 | Carter Verhaeghe scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance | +11% FLA | – |
| 4 | P2 6:40 | Seth Jones scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 5% chance | +7% FLA | – |
| 5 | P2 3:12 | Roman Kantserov scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 17% chance | +5% CHI | – |
| 6 | P3 10:29 | Frank Nazar scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance | +11% CHI | – |
| 7 | P3 8:59 | Sandis Vilmanis scored on a slap shot from 23 feetShooting · 11% chance | +11% FLA | – |
| 8 | P3 3:51 | Frank Nazar scored on a wrist shot from 46 feetShooting · 2% chance | +8% CHI | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blackhawks 11% · Panthers 89%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Blackhawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Blackhawks 28% · Panthers 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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