2026-27 regular season · November 8, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Lightning at Jets, Nov 8, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Lightning 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Lightning had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 16 points of win probability to the Lightning.
The biggest swing (P3, 0:02 left): Mark Scheifele scored on a slap shot from 23 feet, worth 37 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Jets lucky · −26 Lightning
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lightning win 3, Jets win 7.
- 1 TBL 5 WPG 2
- 2 TBL 2 WPG 1
- 3 TBL 5 WPG 4
- 4 TBL 1 WPG 2
- 5 TBL 2 WPG 3
- 6 TBL 0 WPG 2
- 7 TBL 0 WPG 3
- 8 TBL 1 WPG 4
- 9 TBL 1 WPG 5
- 10 TBL 0 WPG 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Lightning by 0.1, 51% to win. The Jets won by 1, a result we gave 49%. The final margin was 1.1 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lightning win | 51.2% |
| Jets win | 48.8% |
| Middle 50%: Lightning by 2 to Jets by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Lightning by 4 to Jets by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Lightning by 5 to Jets by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 20.6% |
| Exactly Lightning by 1 | 20.6% |
| Exactly Lightning by 3 | 11.9% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Lightning by 2 | 10.4% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Nov 8, 11:51 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Lightning win 26% of them, Jets 74%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lightning by 3+ | 5.0% |
| Lightning by 2 | 5.1% |
| Lightning by 1 | 15.8% |
| Jets by 1 | 17.9% |
| Jets by 2 | 12.6% |
| Jets by 3+ | 43.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lightning | 32 | 3 | 1.77 | +1.23 |
 Jets | 41 | 4 | 3.52 | +0.48 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:45 | Cross checking on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P1 4:24 | High sticking on the Jets (Haydn Fleury): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P2 19:32 | Holding on the Lightning (Max Crozier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 9:32 | Slashing on the Jets (Mario Ferraro): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P2 1:43 | Tripping on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% TBL |
| P3 13:41 | High sticking double minor on the Lightning (Pontus Holmberg): 4 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P3 1:45 | Tripping on the Lightning (Yanni Gourde): 2 minutes on the power play | +10% WPG |
| P3 0:53 | Closing hand on puck on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power play | +10% WPG |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 18:07 | Cole Perfetti scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 21% chance | +15% WPG | – |
| 2 | P2 7:22 | Morgan Barron scored on a slap shot from 20 feetShooting · 14% chance | +13% WPG | – |
| 3 | P3 5:33 | Pontus Holmberg scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 5% chance | +35% TBL | – |
| 4 | P3 1:45 | Tripping on the Lightning (Yanni Gourde): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +10% WPG | – |
| 5 | P3 0:53 | Closing hand on puck on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +10% WPG | – |
| 6 | P3 0:27 | Cole Perfetti’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +8% TBL | – |
| 7 | P3 0:14 | Cole Perfetti missed the net with a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 20% chance | +10% TBL | – |
| 8 | P3 0:02 | Mark Scheifele scored on a slap shot from 23 feetShooting · 23% chance | +37% WPG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lightning 22% · Jets 78%
- Final margin
- Jets by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for the Lightning
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Lightning 26% · Jets 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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