2026-27 regular season · November 3, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Oilers at Devils, Nov 3, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Devils beat the Oilers 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Oilers had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Oilers.
The biggest swing (SO): the Devils won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Devils.
Final (SO)
 Edmonton Oilers | 3 |
|---|---|
 New Jersey Devils | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Devils lucky · −27 Oilers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oilers win 3, Devils win 7.
- 1 EDM 3 NJD 1
- 2 EDM 2 NJD 1
- 3 EDM 3 NJD 2
- 4 EDM 1 NJD 2
- 5 EDM 1 NJD 2
- 6 EDM 0 NJD 2
- 7 EDM 1 NJD 3
- 8 EDM 0 NJD 3
- 9 EDM 1 NJD 4
- 10 EDM 1 NJD 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Devils by 0.1, 53% to win. The Devils won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.8 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Oilers win | 47.4% |
| Devils win | 52.6% |
| Middle 50%: Oilers by 2 to Devils by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Oilers by 4 to Devils by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Oilers by 4 to Devils by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Devils by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 19.9% |
| Exactly Devils by 3 | 12.5% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 10.7% |
| Exactly Devils by 2 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Nov 3, 1:10 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oilers win 27% of them, Devils 73%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oilers by 3+ | 3.2% |
| Oilers by 2 | 4.8% |
| Oilers by 1 | 19.3% |
| Devils by 1 | 23.7% |
| Devils by 2 | 14.3% |
| Devils by 3+ | 34.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oilers | 29 | 3 | 1.22 | +1.78 |
 Devils | 51 | 3 | 2.76 | +0.24 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 4:07 | Hooking on the Oilers (Colton Dach): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NJD |
| P1 1:00 | Slashing on the Devils (Cody Glass): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 12:26 | Holding on the Oilers (Connor Murphy): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NJD |
| P2 5:00 | Elbowing on the Oilers (Jake Walman): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NJD |
| P2 3:59 | Tripping on the Oilers (Filip Hallander): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NJD |
| P2 1:59 | Slashing on the Devils (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% EDM |
| P2 1:03 | Tripping on the Devils (Arseny Gritsyuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% EDM |
| P2 0:11 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% EDM |
| P3 15:27 | Slashing on the Oilers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% NJD |
When it happened
Devils’ chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 11:31 | Evan Bouchard scored on a slap shot from 41 feetShooting · 5% chance | +16% EDM | – |
| 2 | P2 12:18 | Connor Brown scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 20% chance | +17% NJD | – |
| 3 | P2 5:10 | Jack Hughes scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 5% chance | +21% NJD | – |
| 4 | P2 4:25 | Jack Hughes scored on a tip from 4 feetShooting · 22% chance | +12% NJD | – |
| 5 | P2 1:44 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 8% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 6 | P3 19:00 | Leon Draisaitl scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 14% chance | +22% EDM | – |
| 7 | P3 15:27 | Slashing on the Oilers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% NJD | – |
| 8 | SO | The Devils won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +51% NJD | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oilers 22% · Devils 78%
- Final margin
- Devils by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Devils by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Oilers 27% · Devils 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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