2026-27 regular season · November 5, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canucks at Jets, Nov 5, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Canucks 6–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 16:11 left): Alex Iafallo scored on a tip from 22 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Vancouver Canucks | 2 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Jets lucky · −32 Canucks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canucks win 3, Jets win 7.
- 1 VAN 3 WPG 0
- 2 VAN 4 WPG 3
- 3 VAN 3 WPG 2
- 4 VAN 1 WPG 2
- 5 VAN 1 WPG 2
- 6 VAN 1 WPG 3
- 7 VAN 2 WPG 5
- 8 VAN 0 WPG 3
- 9 VAN 2 WPG 5
- 10 VAN 1 WPG 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Jets by 0.8, 64% to win. The Jets won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.2 goals from ours; 17% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Canucks win | 36.1% |
| Jets win | 63.9% |
| Middle 50%: Canucks by 1 to Jets by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Canucks by 3 to Jets by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Canucks by 4 to Jets by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Canucks by 1 | 17.0% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 16.3% |
| Exactly Jets by 2 | 11.8% |
| Exactly Jets by 4 | 8.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Nov 5, 1:24 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Canucks win 32% of them, Jets 68%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canucks by 3+ | 7.4% |
| Canucks by 2 | 5.7% |
| Canucks by 1 | 19.4% |
| Jets by 1 | 20.5% |
| Jets by 2 | 12.9% |
| Jets by 3+ | 34.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canucks | 37 | 2 | 1.83 | +0.17 |
 Jets | 46 | 6 | 3.03 | +2.97 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:34 | Hooking on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P1 1:26 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Canucks (Zeev Buium): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% WPG |
| P2 19:12 | Roughing on the Jets (Kyle Connor): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VAN |
| P3 3:00 | Tripping on the Canucks (Marco Rossi): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% WPG |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:34 | Hooking on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% WPG | – |
| 2 | P1 17:06 | Gabriel Vilardi’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 29% chance | +5% VAN | – |
| 3 | P1 16:11 | Alex Iafallo scored on a tip from 22 feetShooting · 9% chance | +14% WPG | – |
| 4 | P1 15:57 | Cole Koepke scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 3% chance | +13% WPG | – |
| 5 | P1 13:09 | Liam Ohgren scored on a wrist shot from 44 feetShooting · 3% chance | +13% VAN | – |
| 6 | P1 5:56 | Dawson Mercer scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 15% chance | +12% WPG | – |
| 7 | P1 1:26 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Canucks (Zeev Buium): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% WPG | – |
| 8 | P2 13:08 | Neal Pionk scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 12% chance | +7% WPG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canucks 14% · Jets 86%
- Final margin
- Jets by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Canucks 32% · Jets 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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