2026-27 regular season · November 6, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sharks at Wild, Nov 6, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Wild beat the Sharks 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 7:49 left): Macklin Celebrini scored on a tip from 18 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Sharks.
Final
 San Jose Sharks | 1 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Wild | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Wild lucky · −26 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sharks win 3, Wild win 7.
- 1 SJS 4 MIN 2
- 2 SJS 5 MIN 4
- 3 SJS 4 MIN 3
- 4 SJS 2 MIN 3
- 5 SJS 1 MIN 3
- 6 SJS 1 MIN 3
- 7 SJS 1 MIN 4
- 8 SJS 1 MIN 5
- 9 SJS 0 MIN 5
- 10 SJS 3 MIN 9
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Wild by 1.0, 66% to win. The Wild won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.0 goals from ours; 32% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sharks win | 34.1% |
| Wild win | 65.9% |
| Middle 50%: Sharks by 1 to Wild by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Sharks by 3 to Wild by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Sharks by 4 to Wild by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Wild by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Wild by 3 | 17.0% |
| Exactly Sharks by 1 | 16.4% |
| Exactly Wild by 2 | 12.0% |
| Exactly Wild by 4 | 8.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Fri, Nov 6, 7:18 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Sharks win 26% of them, Wild 74%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sharks by 3+ | 5.2% |
| Sharks by 2 | 4.8% |
| Sharks by 1 | 16.4% |
| Wild by 1 | 17.4% |
| Wild by 2 | 11.6% |
| Wild by 3+ | 44.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sharks | 36 | 1 | 1.88 | −0.88 |
 Wild | 49 | 4 | 3.59 | +0.41 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 13:00 | Holding on the Sharks (Ty Dellandrea): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P1 12:32 | Tripping on the Sharks (Collin Graf): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P1 9:03 | Interference on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P1 4:41 | Slashing on the Wild (Yakov Trenin): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P2 11:52 | Interference on the Wild (Tyler Pitlick): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P2 7:01 | Interference on the Sharks (Jacob Trouba): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P3 9:14 | Holding on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% MIN |
| P3 3:17 | Tripping on the Sharks (Jacob Trouba): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% MIN |
When it happened
Wild’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:05 | Kirill Kaprizov scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% MIN | – |
| 2 | P2 11:52 | Interference on the Wild (Tyler Pitlick): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% SJS | – |
| 3 | P2 7:49 | Macklin Celebrini scored on a tip from 18 feetShooting · 9% chance | +20% SJS | – |
| 4 | P2 7:01 | Interference on the Sharks (Jacob Trouba): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% MIN | – |
| 5 | P2 6:38 | Joel Eriksson Ek’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +4% SJS | – |
| 6 | P2 6:36 | Kirill Kaprizov’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance | +6% SJS | – |
| 7 | P2 5:45 | Maxim Shabanov scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance | +20% MIN | – |
| 8 | P3 13:06 | Quinn Hughes scored on a wrist shot from 44 feetShooting · 3% chance | +14% MIN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sharks 11% · Wild 89%
- Final margin
- Wild by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for the Wild
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wild by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Sharks 26% · Wild 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 6, 2026-27
- Penguins at Kings Nov 7, 2026 · PIT 5–2 · replay 33% for the winner
- Wild at Flyers Nov 3, 2026 · MIN 4–2 · replay 40% for the winner
- Flames at Sharks Nov 2, 2026 · CGY 2–1 · replay 42% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Sabres Nov 8, 2026 · VGK 4–1 · replay 42% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Predators Nov 3, 2026 · NSH 4–1 · replay 43% for the winner
- Mammoth at Senators Nov 7, 2026 · OTT 4–2 · replay 45% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Penguins Nov 3, 2026 · VGK 3–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Red Wings Nov 5, 2026 · VGK 2–1 · replay 50% for the winner
- Ducks at Canucks Nov 3, 2026 · ANA 5–4 · replay 51% for the winner
- Flames at Kraken Nov 4, 2026 · SEA 2–1 OT · replay 52% for the winner
- Blues at Predators Nov 7, 2026 · NSH 3–1 · replay 52% for the winner
- Ducks at Oilers Nov 5, 2026 · ANA 5–4 · replay 52% for the winner