2026-27 regular season · October 15, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kraken at Lightning, Oct 15, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Lightning beat the Kraken 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lightning win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Lightning.
The biggest swing (OT): the Lightning won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Lightning.
Final (OT)
 Seattle Kraken | 3 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Lightning lucky · −45 Kraken
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kraken win 4, Lightning win 6.
- 1 SEA 5 TBL 1
- 2 SEA 4 TBL 2
- 3 SEA 2 TBL 1
- 4 SEA 3 TBL 2
- 5 SEA 4 TBL 5
- 6 SEA 2 TBL 3
- 7 SEA 2 TBL 4
- 8 SEA 1 TBL 4
- 9 SEA 1 TBL 4
- 10 SEA 4 TBL 9
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Lightning by 0.6, 60% to win. The Lightning won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.4 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kraken win | 40.4% |
| Lightning win | 59.6% |
| Middle 50%: Kraken by 1 to Lightning by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Kraken by 4 to Lightning by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Kraken by 4 to Lightning by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Lightning by 1 | 22.2% |
| Exactly Kraken by 1 | 18.2% |
| Exactly Lightning by 3 | 14.8% |
| Exactly Lightning by 2 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Kraken by 3 | 8.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 15, 11:30 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.7 replays ended
Kraken win 45% of them, Lightning 55%. The line is what actually happened: Lightning by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kraken by 3+ | 15.9% |
| Kraken by 2 | 9.2% |
| Kraken by 1 | 19.9% |
| Lightning by 1 | 20.3% |
| Lightning by 2 | 11.1% |
| Lightning by 3+ | 23.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraken | 39 | 3 | 2.84 | +0.16 |
 Lightning | 46 | 3 | 3.14 | −0.14 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:00 | Hooking on the Kraken (Shane Wright): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P1 0:07 | Holding on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P2 9:46 | Tripping on the Lightning (Pontus Holmberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P2 6:40 | High sticking on the Lightning (Emil Lilleberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P2 4:22 | Tripping on the Kraken (Ben Meyers): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P3 17:13 | Interference on the Lightning (Dominic James): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% SEA |
When it happened
Lightning’ chance of winning
As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:17 | Ryan Winterton scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 6% chance | +16% SEA | – |
| 2 | P1 3:07 | Brandon Hagel scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 15% chance | +16% TBL | – |
| 3 | P2 16:22 | Brandon Hagel scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 8% chance | +18% TBL | – |
| 4 | P3 17:13 | Interference on the Lightning (Dominic James): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% SEA | – |
| 5 | P3 17:06 | Jared McCann scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 12% chance | +23% SEA | – |
| 6 | P3 10:02 | Ilya Mikheyev scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 19% chance | +26% TBL | – |
| 7 | P3 4:19 | Matty Beniers scored on a tip from 12 feetShooting · 7% chance | +36% SEA | – |
| 8 | OT | The Lightning won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% TBL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kraken 46% · Lightning 54%
- Final margin
- Lightning by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for the Lightning
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lightning by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Kraken 45% · Lightning 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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