luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flames at Ducks, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Ducks 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (P3, 4:22 left): Martin Pospisil scored on a snap shot from 26 feet, worth 37 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final

Calgary Flames 4
Anaheim Ducks 2

October 13, 2026 · Honda Center

Our prediction before puck drop: Ducks by 0.9

Luck index +50 Flames lucky · −50 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flames win 5, Ducks win 5.

  1. 1 CGY 4 ANA 0
  2. 2 CGY 3 ANA 0
  3. 3 CGY 3 ANA 1
  4. 4 CGY 3 ANA 2
  5. 5 CGY 3 ANA 2
  6. 6 CGY 3 ANA 4
  7. 7 CGY 4 ANA 5
  8. 8 CGY 3 ANA 5
  9. 9 CGY 1 ANA 4
  10. 10 CGY 1 ANA 5

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Ducks by 0.9, 64% to win. The Flames won by 2, a result we gave 36%. The final margin was 2.9 goals from ours; 25% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Flames win35.7%
Ducks win64.3%
Middle 50%: Flames by 1 to Ducks by 350%
Middle 90%: Flames by 3 to Ducks by 590%
Middle 95%: Flames by 4 to Ducks by 595%
Exactly Ducks by 122.5%
Exactly Flames by 116.9%
Exactly Ducks by 316.4%
Exactly Ducks by 211.8%
Exactly Ducks by 48.3%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 9:23 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flames win 50% of them, Ducks 50%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flames by 3+20.7%
Flames by 29.8%
Flames by 119.8%
Ducks by 120.3%
Ducks by 210.7%
Ducks by 3+18.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 2, without the luck Flames by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flames5133.15−0.15
Ducks5023.27−1.27

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:45 Roughing on the Ducks (A.J. Greer): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 8:27 Slashing on the Flames (Maxim Tsyplakov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 6:37 Slashing on the Flames (Yegor Sharangovich): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 5:20 Holding on the Flames (Zayne Parekh): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 14:06 Tripping on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 4 minutes on the power play +8% CGY
P2 10:37 Tripping on the Flames (Ryan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P2 2:10 Slashing on the Flames (Aydar Suniev): 2 minutes on the power play +6% ANA

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Flames were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:28 Adam Klapka scored on a snap shot from 43 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% CGY –
2 P1 7:51 Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 17% chance +15% ANA –
3 P1 5:55 Leo Carlsson scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 13% chance +15% ANA –
4 P2 14:06 Tripping on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% CGY –
5 P2 11:58 Aydar Suniev scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 16% chance +17% CGY –
6 P2 1:11 Beckett Sennecke missed the net with a slap shot from 21 feetShooting · 27% chance +7% CGY –
7 P3 4:39 Matt Coronato hit the right post with a tip from 6 feetShooting · 10% chanceAydar Suniev missed the net with a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 8% chance +7% ANA –
8 P3 4:22 Martin Pospisil scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 6% chance +37% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flames 77% · Ducks 23%

Final margin
Flames by 2
Luck in goals
0.6 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Flames by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Flames 50% · Ducks 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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