2026-27 regular season · October 15, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canucks at Panthers, Oct 15, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Canucks 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Canucks had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 10 points of win probability to the Canucks.
The biggest swing (OT): the Panthers won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final (OT)
 Vancouver Canucks | 2 |
|---|---|
 Florida Panthers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Panthers lucky · −37 Canucks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canucks win 4, Panthers win 6.
- 1 VAN 4 FLA 1
- 2 VAN 5 FLA 3
- 3 VAN 3 FLA 2
- 4 VAN 4 FLA 3
- 5 VAN 3 FLA 4
- 6 VAN 2 FLA 3
- 7 VAN 3 FLA 5
- 8 VAN 0 FLA 3
- 9 VAN 4 FLA 7
- 10 VAN 2 FLA 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Panthers by 1.0, 66% to win. The Panthers won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.0 goals from ours; 77% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Canucks win | 33.5% |
| Panthers win | 66.5% |
| Middle 50%: Canucks by 1 to Panthers by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Canucks by 3 to Panthers by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Canucks by 4 to Panthers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Panthers by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 17.2% |
| Exactly Canucks by 1 | 16.2% |
| Exactly Panthers by 2 | 12.1% |
| Exactly Panthers by 4 | 8.9% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 15, 11:30 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Canucks win 37% of them, Panthers 63%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canucks by 3+ | 12.0% |
| Canucks by 2 | 6.4% |
| Canucks by 1 | 18.3% |
| Panthers by 1 | 20.6% |
| Panthers by 2 | 11.5% |
| Panthers by 3+ | 31.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canucks | 31 | 2 | 2.30 | −0.30 |
 Panthers | 49 | 2 | 3.80 | −1.80 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:33 | Hooking on the Canucks (Jamie Oleksiak): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P1 0:38 | Hooking on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VAN |
| P2 15:46 | Holding on the Panthers (Bokondji Imama): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VAN |
| P2 0:27 | Holding on the Canucks (Jonathan Lekkerimäki): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P3 11:41 | Roughing on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% VAN |
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:37 | Liam Ohgren scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% VAN | – |
| 2 | P1 2:54 | Elias Pettersson scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 24% chance | +12% VAN | – |
| 3 | P2 10:48 | Sam Bennett’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 35% chance | +6% VAN | – |
| 4 | P3 8:49 | Brady Tkachuk scored on a snap shot from 53 feetShooting · 2% chance | +13% FLA | – |
| 5 | P3 5:28 | Sam Bennett’s tip from 5 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance | +5% VAN | – |
| 6 | P3 1:52 | Sam Reinhart missed the net with a tip from 19 feetShooting · 11% chance | +5% VAN | – |
| 7 | P3 0:13 | Brady Tkachuk scored on a slap shot from 30 feetShooting · 7% chance | +45% FLA | – |
| 8 | OT | The Panthers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% FLA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canucks 36% · Panthers 64%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Canucks 37% · Panthers 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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