2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Lightning at Rangers, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Rangers beat the Lightning 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Rangers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 18 points of win probability to the Rangers.
The biggest swing (P2, 1:34 left): Will Cuylle scored on a tip from 19 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Rangers.
Final
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 1 |
|---|---|
 New York Rangers | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 Rangers lucky · −43 Lightning
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lightning win 4, Rangers win 6.
- 1 TBL 4 NYR 1
- 2 TBL 3 NYR 1
- 3 TBL 3 NYR 2
- 4 TBL 3 NYR 2
- 5 TBL 1 NYR 2
- 6 TBL 2 NYR 3
- 7 TBL 1 NYR 2
- 8 TBL 1 NYR 3
- 9 TBL 1 NYR 4
- 10 TBL 0 NYR 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had it even, a coin flip. The Rangers won by 3. The final margin was 3.0 goals from ours; 27% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lightning win | 49.4% |
| Rangers win | 50.6% |
| Middle 50%: Lightning by 2 to Rangers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Lightning by 4 to Rangers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Lightning by 4 to Rangers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Rangers by 1 | 21.0% |
| Exactly Lightning by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Rangers by 3 | 11.9% |
| Exactly Lightning by 3 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Lightning by 2 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 1:55 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Lightning win 43% of them, Rangers 57%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lightning by 3+ | 11.1% |
| Lightning by 2 | 9.1% |
| Lightning by 1 | 23.2% |
| Rangers by 1 | 23.7% |
| Rangers by 2 | 12.7% |
| Rangers by 3+ | 20.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lightning | 42 | 1 | 2.35 | −1.35 |
 Rangers | 30 | 3 | 2.21 | +0.79 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 16:57 | Slashing on the Lightning (John Carlson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NYR |
| P1 12:06 | Hooking on the Lightning (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NYR |
| P1 11:03 | Holding on the Rangers (Adam Fox): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% TBL |
| P2 19:18 | Tripping on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NYR |
| P2 15:32 | Hooking on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P3 19:31 | Cross checking on the Rangers (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% TBL |
| P3 18:03 | Slashing on the Lightning (Anthony Cirelli): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% NYR |
| P3 4:26 | Interference on the Rangers (Tye Kartye): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% TBL |
When it happened
Rangers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:58 | Alexis Lafrenière scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 13% chance | +13% NYR | – |
| 2 | P1 12:06 | Hooking on the Lightning (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% NYR | – |
| 3 | P1 11:03 | Holding on the Rangers (Adam Fox): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% TBL | – |
| 4 | P1 7:13 | Alexis Lafrenière scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 14% chance | +12% NYR | – |
| 5 | P1 2:34 | Zemgus Girgensons scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 9% chance | +13% TBL | – |
| 6 | P2 19:18 | Tripping on the Lightning (Erik Cernak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NYR | – |
| 7 | P2 15:32 | Hooking on the Rangers (Braden Schneider): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% TBL | – |
| 8 | P2 1:34 | Will Cuylle scored on a tip from 19 feetShooting · 8% chance | +14% NYR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lightning 25% · Rangers 75%
- Final margin
- Rangers by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Rangers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rangers by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Lightning 43% · Rangers 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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