2026-27 regular season · October 17, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blues at Predators, Oct 17, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Predators beat the Blues 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 7:38 left): Filip Forsberg scored on a wraparound from 6 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Predators.
Final
 St. Louis Blues | 2 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Predators lucky · −36 Blues
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blues win 4, Predators win 6.
- 1 STL 4 NSH 1
- 2 STL 6 NSH 4
- 3 STL 4 NSH 3
- 4 STL 2 NSH 1
- 5 STL 1 NSH 2
- 6 STL 2 NSH 3
- 7 STL 2 NSH 4
- 8 STL 2 NSH 5
- 9 STL 1 NSH 4
- 10 STL 3 NSH 8
Our prediction before puck drop
We had it even, a coin flip. The Predators won by 3. The final margin was 3.0 goals from ours; 27% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blues win | 49.8% |
| Predators win | 50.2% |
| Middle 50%: Blues by 2 to Predators by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Blues by 4 to Predators by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Blues by 5 to Predators by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 20.9% |
| Exactly Blues by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Predators by 3 | 11.7% |
| Exactly Blues by 3 | 11.5% |
| Exactly Blues by 2 | 10.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 17, 6:42 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Blues win 36% of them, Predators 64%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blues by 3+ | 9.2% |
| Blues by 2 | 7.6% |
| Blues by 1 | 18.9% |
| Predators by 1 | 20.3% |
| Predators by 2 | 12.2% |
| Predators by 3+ | 31.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blues | 36 | 2 | 2.24 | −0.24 |
 Predators | 39 | 5 | 3.04 | +1.96 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:49 | Tripping on the Blues (Adam Jiricek): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 0:30 | Tripping on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P2 14:02 | Tripping on the Predators (Vitali Pinchuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P2 2:19 | Holding on the Predators (Nick Perbix): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P3 15:54 | Interference on the Predators (Alexander Kerfoot): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% STL |
| P3 5:52 | Hooking on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% STL |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:39 | Philip Broberg scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 14% chance | +14% STL | – |
| 2 | P1 11:20 | Jonathan Marchessault scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 16% chance | +14% NSH | – |
| 3 | P1 7:38 | Filip Forsberg scored on a wraparound from 6 feetShooting · 3% chance | +16% NSH | – |
| 4 | P2 14:02 | Tripping on the Predators (Vitali Pinchuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% STL | – |
| 5 | P2 12:55 | Adam Edstrom scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 9% chance | +13% NSH | – |
| 6 | P2 12:24 | Jimmy Snuggerud scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 24% chance | +11% STL | – |
| 7 | P2 2:19 | Holding on the Predators (Nick Perbix): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% STL | – |
| 8 | P3 17:10 | Ryan O'Reilly scored on a backhand shot from 1 feetShooting · 70% chance | +4% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blues 20% · Predators 80%
- Final margin
- Predators by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Predators by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Blues 36% · Predators 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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