2026-27 regular season · October 15, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Mammoth at Oilers, Oct 15, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Mammoth beat the Oilers 4–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P3, 18:20 left): Shakir Mukhamadullin scored on a snap shot from 56 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Utah Mammoth | 4 |
|---|---|
 Edmonton Oilers | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Mammoth lucky · −34 Oilers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mammoth win 7, Oilers win 3.
- 1 UTA 5 EDM 0
- 2 UTA 3 EDM 0
- 3 UTA 4 EDM 1
- 4 UTA 4 EDM 2
- 5 UTA 2 EDM 0
- 6 UTA 4 EDM 3
- 7 UTA 3 EDM 2
- 8 UTA 1 EDM 2
- 9 UTA 2 EDM 3
- 10 UTA 3 EDM 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Oilers by 0.2, 53% to win. The Mammoth won by 2, a result we gave 47%. The final margin was 2.2 goals from ours; 39% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mammoth win | 47.0% |
| Oilers win | 53.0% |
| Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Oilers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Oilers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Mammoth by 4 to Oilers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 21.4% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 19.8% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 12.7% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 10.6% |
| Exactly Oilers by 2 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 15, 8:42 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Mammoth win 66% of them, Oilers 34%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mammoth by 3+ | 33.5% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 12.8% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 19.6% |
| Oilers by 1 | 20.6% |
| Oilers by 2 | 6.1% |
| Oilers by 3+ | 7.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mammoth | 38 | 3 | 3.02 | −0.02 |
 Oilers | 39 | 2 | 1.98 | +0.02 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:37 | High sticking double minor on the Oilers (Josh Samanski): 4 minutes on the power play | +8% UTA |
| P2 18:34 | Too many men on the ice on the Mammoth (UTA): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 8:34 | Unsportsmanlike conduct bench on the Oilers (EDM): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 3:54 | Boarding on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% EDM |
When it happened
Oilers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 10:37 | High sticking double minor on the Oilers (Josh Samanski): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +8% UTA | – |
| 2 | P1 9:22 | Barrett Hayton scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chance | +14% UTA | – |
| 3 | P2 8:52 | Vasily Podkolzin’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +5% UTA | – |
| 4 | P2 8:03 | Clayton Keller scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 5 | P2 6:06 | Leon Draisaitl scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% EDM | – |
| 6 | P2 5:43 | Logan Cooley scored on a tip from 4 feetShooting · 23% chance | +13% UTA | – |
| 7 | P3 18:20 | Shakir Mukhamadullin scored on a snap shot from 56 feetShooting · 1% chance | +16% EDM | – |
| 8 | P3 2:13 | Kasperi Kapanen’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +8% UTA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mammoth 80% · Oilers 20%
- Final margin
- Mammoth by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for the Mammoth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Mammoth 66% · Oilers 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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