2026-27 regular season · October 15, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Rangers at Devils, Oct 15, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Devils beat the Rangers 7–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 0:30 left): Evan Rodrigues scored on a wrist shot from 27 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Devils.
Final
 New York Rangers | 1 |
|---|---|
 New Jersey Devils | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Devils lucky · −34 Rangers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rangers win 3, Devils win 7.
- 1 NYR 3 NJD 0
- 2 NYR 4 NJD 3
- 3 NYR 4 NJD 3
- 4 NYR 1 NJD 2
- 5 NYR 2 NJD 3
- 6 NYR 1 NJD 2
- 7 NYR 3 NJD 5
- 8 NYR 2 NJD 5
- 9 NYR 2 NJD 5
- 10 NYR 1 NJD 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Devils by 0.3, 55% to win. The Devils won by 6: the pick was right. The final margin was 5.7 goals from ours; 1% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rangers win | 45.0% |
| Devils win | 55.0% |
| Middle 50%: Rangers by 2 to Devils by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Rangers by 4 to Devils by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Rangers by 4 to Devils by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Devils by 1 | 21.7% |
| Exactly Rangers by 1 | 19.3% |
| Exactly Devils by 3 | 13.3% |
| Exactly Devils by 2 | 10.4% |
| Exactly Rangers by 3 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 15, 11:30 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Rangers win 34% of them, Devils 66%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rangers by 3+ | 8.0% |
| Rangers by 2 | 7.0% |
| Rangers by 1 | 19.4% |
| Devils by 1 | 21.5% |
| Devils by 2 | 13.3% |
| Devils by 3+ | 30.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rangers | 28 | 1 | 1.74 | −0.74 |
 Devils | 45 | 7 | 2.89 | +4.11 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 8:02 | Slashing on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 4 minutes on the power play | +8% NJD |
| P1 5:23 | Tripping on the Devils (Jonas Siegenthaler): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NYR |
| P3 17:03 | Interference goalkeeper on the Devils (Timo Meier): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NYR |
| P3 12:23 | Holding on the Devils (Luke Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NYR |
| P3 10:35 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NJD |
| P3 8:21 | Cross checking on the Rangers (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NJD |
| P3 5:37 | Interference on the Devils (Johnathan Kovacevic): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NYR |
When it happened
Devils’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:42 | Amadeus Lombardi’s wrist shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance | +2% NYR | – |
| 2 | P1 8:02 | Slashing on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +8% NJD | – |
| 3 | P1 5:23 | Tripping on the Devils (Jonas Siegenthaler): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NYR | – |
| 4 | P1 3:19 | Oliver Bjorkstrand’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +3% NJD | – |
| 5 | P1 0:30 | Evan Rodrigues scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 6% chance | +17% NJD | – |
| 6 | P2 19:42 | Luke Hughes scored on a snap shot from 52 feetShooting · 2% chance | +14% NJD | – |
| 7 | P2 15:52 | Nico Hischier scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 13% chance | +7% NJD | – |
| 8 | P2 15:21 | Arseny Gritsyuk scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 5% chance | +3% NJD | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rangers 6% · Devils 94%
- Final margin
- Devils by 6
- Luck in goals
- 3.6 for the Devils
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Devils by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Rangers 34% · Devils 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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