2026-27 regular season · October 18, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blue Jackets at Wild, Oct 18, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Wild beat the Blue Jackets 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Wild win 8 of 10. The Blue Jackets had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 14 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
The biggest swing (P2, 16:54 left): Kirill Kaprizov scored on a snap shot from 26 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Wild.
Final
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 1 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Wild | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Wild about even · −18 Blue Jackets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 2, Wild win 8.
- 1 CBJ 2 MIN 1
- 2 CBJ 2 MIN 1
- 3 CBJ 3 MIN 4
- 4 CBJ 0 MIN 1
- 5 CBJ 1 MIN 3
- 6 CBJ 2 MIN 5
- 7 CBJ 0 MIN 3
- 8 CBJ 2 MIN 6
- 9 CBJ 1 MIN 6
- 10 CBJ 0 MIN 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Wild by 0.4, 58% to win. The Wild won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.6 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets win | 42.4% |
| Wild win | 57.6% |
| Middle 50%: Blue Jackets by 1 to Wild by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Blue Jackets by 4 to Wild by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Blue Jackets by 4 to Wild by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Wild by 1 | 22.0% |
| Exactly Blue Jackets by 1 | 18.7% |
| Exactly Wild by 3 | 14.2% |
| Exactly Wild by 2 | 10.9% |
| Exactly Blue Jackets by 3 | 9.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Oct 18, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Blue Jackets win 18% of them, Wild 82%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 2.9% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 13.5% |
| Wild by 1 | 16.3% |
| Wild by 2 | 12.9% |
| Wild by 3+ | 52.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 23 | 1 | 1.21 | −0.21 |
 Wild | 54 | 2 | 3.58 | −1.58 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:57 | Holding on the Blue Jackets (Conor Garland): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P1 17:49 | Cross checking on the Blue Jackets (Charlie Coyle): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P1 11:03 | Tripping on the Wild (Zach Bogosian): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CBJ |
| P2 18:10 | High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Denton Mateychuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P2 7:26 | Hooking on the Wild (Matt Boldy): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CBJ |
| P3 4:53 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Erik Gudbranson): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% MIN |
When it happened
Wild’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 1:48 | Danila Yurov scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance | +17% MIN | – |
| 2 | P1 0:48 | Adam Fantilli scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 5% chance | +17% CBJ | – |
| 3 | P2 18:10 | High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Denton Mateychuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% MIN | – |
| 4 | P2 16:54 | Kirill Kaprizov scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 9% chance | +17% MIN | – |
| 5 | P2 7:26 | Hooking on the Wild (Matt Boldy): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CBJ | – |
| 6 | P2 0:59 | Danila Yurov’s tip from 2 feet was savedShooting · 44% chance | +6% CBJ | – |
| 7 | P3 4:53 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Erik Gudbranson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% MIN | – |
| 8 | P3 0:07 | Kent Johnson missed the net with a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 8% chance | +4% MIN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blue Jackets 5% · Wild 95%
- Final margin
- Wild by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for the Blue Jackets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wild by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Blue Jackets 18% · Wild 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 3, 2026-27
- Penguins at Blackhawks Oct 13, 2026 · CHI 5–3 · replay 33% for the winner
- Devils at Capitals Oct 17, 2026 · WSH 4–2 · replay 37% for the winner
- Kraken at Flyers Oct 13, 2026 · SEA 3–2 SO · replay 39% for the winner
- Stars at Avalanche Oct 14, 2026 · DAL 3–2 SO · replay 40% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Flames Oct 18, 2026 · CGY 3–2 · replay 40% for the winner
- Islanders at Maple Leafs Oct 17, 2026 · NYI 4–1 · replay 40% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Predators Oct 13, 2026 · VGK 5–2 · replay 41% for the winner
- Rangers at Blue Jackets Oct 17, 2026 · CBJ 1–0 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Jets at Blackhawks Oct 15, 2026 · CHI 4–3 OT · replay 44% for the winner
- Oilers at Mammoth Oct 17, 2026 · EDM 6–2 · replay 45% for the winner
- Senators at Devils Oct 12, 2026 · OTT 4–1 · replay 45% for the winner
- Senators at Flyers Oct 17, 2026 · PHI 3–1 · replay 45% for the winner