2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Devils at Red Wings, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Devils beat the Red Wings 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Red Wings had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 30 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Devils won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Devils.
Final (OT)
 New Jersey Devils | 5 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Devils lucky · −32 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Devils win 7, Red Wings win 3.
- 1 NJD 5 DET 0
- 2 NJD 4 DET 0
- 3 NJD 4 DET 1
- 4 NJD 5 DET 2
- 5 NJD 3 DET 1
- 6 NJD 2 DET 1
- 7 NJD 5 DET 4
- 8 NJD 2 DET 3
- 9 NJD 3 DET 4
- 10 NJD 2 DET 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had it even, a coin flip. The Devils won by 1. The final margin was 1.0 goal from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Devils win | 49.4% |
| Red Wings win | 50.6% |
| Middle 50%: Devils by 2 to Red Wings by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Devils by 4 to Red Wings by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Devils by 5 to Red Wings by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 1 | 21.0% |
| Exactly Devils by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 3 | 11.9% |
| Exactly Devils by 3 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Devils by 2 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 1:55 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Devils win 68% of them, Red Wings 32%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Devils by 3+ | 38.0% |
| Devils by 2 | 11.0% |
| Devils by 1 | 18.6% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 18.6% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 6.5% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 7.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Devils | 52 | 4 | 3.70 | +0.30 |
 Red Wings | 39 | 4 | 2.15 | +1.85 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 10:30 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Keegan Kolesar): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NJD |
| P2 2:06 | Hooking on the Devils (Amadeus Lombardi): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DET |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 1:25 | Emmitt Finnie scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 4% chance | +18% DET | – |
| 2 | P2 18:17 | Michael Brandsegg-Nygård scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 14% chance | +16% DET | – |
| 3 | P2 12:57 | Anthony Mantha scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 16% chance | +17% NJD | – |
| 4 | P2 9:44 | Nico Hischier scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance | +19% NJD | – |
| 5 | P2 4:50 | Alex DeBrincat scored on a snap shot from 52 feetShooting · 3% chance | +23% DET | – |
| 6 | P2 3:08 | Jesper Bratt scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 12% chance | +21% NJD | – |
| 7 | P3 14:14 | Alex DeBrincat scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 6% chance | +27% DET | – |
| 8 | OT | The game turned hereThe Devils won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +51% NJD | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Devils 75% · Red Wings 25%
- Final margin
- Devils by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Red Wings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Devils by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Devils 68% · Red Wings 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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