luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 15, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flames at Mammoth, Oct 15, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Flames 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Mammoth win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

The biggest swing (P2, 18:44 left): Barrett Hayton scored on a snap shot from 26 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Calgary Flames 1
Utah Mammoth 3

October 15, 2025 · Delta Center

Luck index +40 Mammoth lucky · −40 Flames

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flames win 4, Mammoth win 6.

  1. 1 CGY 5 UTA 2
  2. 2 CGY 3 UTA 1
  3. 3 CGY 4 UTA 3
  4. 4 CGY 4 UTA 3
  5. 5 CGY 5 UTA 6
  6. 6 CGY 8 UTA 9
  7. 7 CGY 2 UTA 4
  8. 8 CGY 3 UTA 6
  9. 9 CGY 1 UTA 5
  10. 10 CGY 4 UTA 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Flames win 40% of them, Mammoth 60%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flames by 3+15.4%
Flames by 28.2%
Flames by 116.9%
Mammoth by 118.5%
Mammoth by 29.6%
Mammoth by 3+31.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 2, without the luck Mammoth by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flames3913.33−2.33
Mammoth4724.02−2.02

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:39 High sticking on the Mammoth (Mikhail Sergachev): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 9:16 Interference on the Mammoth (Kevin Stenlund): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 6:16 Tripping on the Flames (Adam Klapka): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 5:26 Hooking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 1:59 Tripping on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 13:10 Interference on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 10:28 Hooking on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 6:12 Tripping on the Flames (Brayden Pachal): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P3 17:03 Roughing on the Flames (Mikael Backlund): 2 minutes on the power play +5% UTA
P3 9:13 Tripping on the Mammoth (Karel Vejmelka): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Flames were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:23 Rasmus Andersson scored on a slap shot from 6 feetShooting · 38% chance +10% CGY –
2 P1 0:58 Logan Cooley’s snap shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 29% chance +5% CGY –
3 P2 18:44 Barrett Hayton scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance +17% UTA –
4 P2 15:36 JJ Peterka scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 22% chance +15% UTA –
5 P3 11:53 Blake Coleman’s snap shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +6% UTA –
6 P3 9:13 Tripping on the Mammoth (Karel Vejmelka): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
7 P3 4:58 Yegor Sharangovich missed the net with a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 16% chance +6% UTA –
8 P3 3:39 Matt Coronato’s wrist shot from 12 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +5% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flames 19% · Mammoth 81%

Final margin
Mammoth by 2
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Flames 40% · Mammoth 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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