luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 18, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Devils, Oct 18, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Devils beat the Oilers 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Devils win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 21 points of win probability to the Devils.

The biggest swing (P2, 11:53 left): Jack Hughes scored on a wrist shot from 23 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Devils.

Final

Edmonton Oilers 3
New Jersey Devils 5

October 18, 2025 · Prudential Center

Luck index +43 Devils lucky · −43 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 4, Devils win 6.

  1. 1 EDM 5 NJD 2
  2. 2 EDM 3 NJD 1
  3. 3 EDM 2 NJD 1
  4. 4 EDM 4 NJD 3
  5. 5 EDM 4 NJD 5
  6. 6 EDM 1 NJD 2
  7. 7 EDM 1 NJD 2
  8. 8 EDM 2 NJD 4
  9. 9 EDM 1 NJD 4
  10. 10 EDM 1 NJD 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oilers win 43% of them, Devils 57%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+13.5%
Oilers by 28.6%
Oilers by 120.7%
Devils by 122.4%
Devils by 211.8%
Devils by 3+23.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Devils: the final margin was Devils by 2, without the luck Devils by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers4032.50+0.50
Devils3642.78+1.22

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:26 High sticking on the Devils (Dawson Mercer): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 6:17 Tripping on the Oilers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 17:54 Tripping on the Devils (Jesper Bratt): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P2 4:02 Holding on the Oilers (Mattias Ekholm): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P3 9:58 High sticking on the Devils (Cody Glass): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 6:54 High sticking on the Oilers (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play 0% NJD

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 17:54 Tripping on the Devils (Jesper Bratt): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% EDM –
2 P2 16:47 Leon Draisaitl’s snap shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +4% NJD –
3 P2 11:53 Jack Hughes scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 9% chance +19% NJD –
4 P2 4:02 Holding on the Oilers (Mattias Ekholm): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NJD –
5 P2 3:58 Jesper Bratt scored on a backhand shot from 14 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% NJD –
6 P2 1:44 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% EDM –
7 P3 9:58 High sticking on the Devils (Cody Glass): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% EDM –
8 P3 9:23 Connor Brown scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 15% chance +11% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 31% · Devils 69%

Final margin
Devils by 2
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Devils
Luck-adjusted margin
Devils by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 43% · Devils 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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