luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 19, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Bruins at Mammoth, Oct 19, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Bruins 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P3, 9:23 left): Dylan Guenther scored on a slap shot from 34 feet, worth 29 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Boston Bruins 2
Utah Mammoth 3

October 19, 2025 · Delta Center

Luck index +34 Mammoth lucky · −34 Bruins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bruins win 3, Mammoth win 7.

  1. 1 BOS 6 UTA 3
  2. 2 BOS 4 UTA 3
  3. 3 BOS 4 UTA 3
  4. 4 BOS 4 UTA 5
  5. 5 BOS 3 UTA 4
  6. 6 BOS 1 UTA 3
  7. 7 BOS 1 UTA 4
  8. 8 BOS 2 UTA 5
  9. 9 BOS 2 UTA 5
  10. 10 BOS 2 UTA 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Bruins win 34% of them, Mammoth 66%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bruins by 3+9.1%
Bruins by 26.7%
Bruins by 118.4%
Mammoth by 119.5%
Mammoth by 212.1%
Mammoth by 3+34.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Bruins: the final margin was Mammoth by 1, without the luck Mammoth by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Bruins3222.15−0.15
Mammoth4033.60−0.60

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:30 Hooking on the Bruins (Elias Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 12:45 Tripping on the Mammoth (Mikhail Sergachev): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BOS
P1 6:34 Tripping on the Mammoth (Dylan Guenther): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P1 4:40 Tripping on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 19:35 Slashing on the Mammoth (JJ Peterka): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BOS
P2 13:28 Hooking on the Bruins (David Pastrnak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 9:24 Tripping on the Bruins (Henri Jokiharju): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P3 13:49 Slashing on the Bruins (Tanner Jeannot): 2 minutes on the power play +7% UTA
P3 5:09 Tripping on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play +6% BOS

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Bruins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:40 Logan Cooley scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chance +13% UTA –
2 P1 5:22 David Pastrnak scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 23% chance +13% BOS –
3 P2 14:14 David Pastrnak scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 13% chance +18% BOS –
4 P2 8:19 Logan Cooley’s between-the-legs shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 36% chance +8% BOS –
5 P2 4:03 Clayton Keller scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 18% chance +20% UTA –
6 P3 16:52 Logan Cooley missed the net with a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 23% chance +6% BOS –
7 P3 13:49 Slashing on the Bruins (Tanner Jeannot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% UTA –
8 P3 9:23 Dylan Guenther scored on a slap shot from 34 feetShooting · 10% chance +29% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bruins 25% · Mammoth 75%

Final margin
Mammoth by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Bruins
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Bruins 34% · Mammoth 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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