luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 17, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canucks at Blackhawks, Oct 17, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Blackhawks 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Blackhawks had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 71 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Canucks won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Canucks.

Final (SO)

Vancouver Canucks 3
Chicago Blackhawks 2

October 17, 2025 · United Center

Luck index +34 Canucks lucky · −34 Blackhawks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canucks win 7, Blackhawks win 3.

  1. 1 VAN 7 CHI 1
  2. 2 VAN 6 CHI 2
  3. 3 VAN 5 CHI 2
  4. 4 VAN 6 CHI 3
  5. 5 VAN 6 CHI 4
  6. 6 VAN 5 CHI 4
  7. 7 VAN 4 CHI 3
  8. 8 VAN 3 CHI 4
  9. 9 VAN 1 CHI 2
  10. 10 VAN 1 CHI 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Canucks win 66% of them, Blackhawks 34%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canucks by 3+39.2%
Canucks by 210.4%
Canucks by 116.7%
Blackhawks by 116.8%
Blackhawks by 26.2%
Blackhawks by 3+10.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 goals to the Blackhawks: the final margin was Canucks by 1, without the luck Canucks by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canucks4924.23−2.23
Blackhawks4522.66−0.66

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:37 Hooking on the Canucks (Kiefer Sherwood): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P1 18:14 Holding on the Blackhawks (Frank Nazar): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P1 8:31 Slashing on the Canucks (Evander Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 17:15 Holding on the Canucks (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CHI
P2 16:12 Slashing on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VAN
P2 13:44 Slashing on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VAN
P3 14:49 High sticking on the Blackhawks (Lukas Reichel): 2 minutes on the power play +7% VAN
P3 5:12 A Blackhawks goal came off the board on review (goal interference) +38% VAN
P3 5:12 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blackhawks (CHI): 2 minutes on the power play +9% VAN
P3 2:04 Holding on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play +10% VAN

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Canucks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 7:19 Ryan Donato scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 14% chance +15% CHI –
2 P1 0:46 Tyler Bertuzzi scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 16% chance +12% CHI –
3 P2 6:18 Max Sasson scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance +19% VAN –
4 P3 5:12 A Blackhawks goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goalsDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blackhawks (CHI): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +47% VAN –
5 P3 3:59 Elias Pettersson missed the net with a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 51% chance +20% CHI –
6 P3 0:11 Jake DeBrusk’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 28% chance +13% CHI –
7 P3 0:10 Jake DeBrusk’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +12% CHI –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Canucks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% VAN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canucks 75% · Blackhawks 25%

Final margin
Canucks by 1
Luck in goals
0.2 for the Blackhawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Canucks by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Canucks 66% · Blackhawks 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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