luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 NHL season · final

NHL expected goals and PDO, 2025-26

The Avalanche have the biggest share of the chances: 56.8% of the expected goals in their games. The highest PDO belongs to the Stars (1.031), the lowest to the Canucks (0.976).

Regulation with both goalies in, every strength. Expected goals from our own model of every unblocked shot, with the shooter’s and goalie’s records. PDO: shooting percentage plus save percentage, on shots on goal. Regular season. How the model works

#TeamGPxGFxGAxG shareGFGAGoals above xGSh%Sv%PDO
1 Avalanche 82 270.9 206.1 56.8% 272 179 +28.2 10.0% 0.915 1.015
2 Golden Knights 82 247.5 195.2 55.9% 247 222 −27.2 10.7% 0.885 0.992
3 Hurricanes 82 263.2 208.9 55.7% 265 220 −9.2 10.3% 0.886 0.988
4 Senators 82 231.1 191.9 54.6% 253 226 −12.2 10.9% 0.884 0.993
5 Lightning 82 250.7 218.3 53.5% 257 210 +14.6 11.4% 0.902 1.016
6 Stars 82 234.7 214.7 52.2% 256 201 +35.0 12.7% 0.904 1.031
7 Mammoth 82 241.7 226.8 51.6% 239 222 +2.2 10.7% 0.895 1.002
8 Kings 82 219.1 206.6 51.5% 202 213 −23.5 9.0% 0.901 0.991
9 Penguins 82 244.3 230.8 51.4% 270 237 +19.5 11.9% 0.892 1.011
10 Panthers 82 234.6 222.8 51.3% 229 249 −31.9 10.2% 0.884 0.986
11 Oilers 82 248.0 236.5 51.2% 256 247 −2.5 10.8% 0.885 0.993
12 Ducks 82 253.3 246.7 50.7% 241 263 −28.6 9.8% 0.883 0.981
13 Blue Jackets 82 237.3 231.4 50.6% 225 227 −7.9 9.5% 0.901 0.997
14 Devils 82 227.8 223.1 50.5% 199 236 −41.7 8.4% 0.893 0.977
15 Wild 82 227.9 223.7 50.5% 239 213 +21.7 10.2% 0.910 1.012
16 Flyers 82 218.8 215.9 50.3% 213 218 −7.9 10.5% 0.892 0.998
17 Jets 82 220.4 219.0 50.2% 211 234 −24.4 10.0% 0.895 0.994
18 Sabres 82 236.6 236.7 50.0% 253 213 +40.1 11.2% 0.909 1.021
19 Red Wings 82 234.7 234.8 50.0% 209 231 −21.9 9.3% 0.896 0.989
20 Capitals 82 240.3 240.7 50.0% 232 218 +14.4 10.4% 0.904 1.007
21 Blues 82 209.3 216.3 49.2% 214 234 −13.0 10.5% 0.895 1.000
22 Canadiens 82 237.9 251.6 48.6% 254 234 +33.7 12.2% 0.895 1.017
23 Rangers 82 211.5 225.4 48.4% 217 216 +14.9 10.7% 0.906 1.013
24 Islanders 82 228.7 245.9 48.2% 212 222 +7.2 9.4% 0.901 0.994
25 Predators 82 221.9 246.7 47.4% 221 240 +5.8 9.9% 0.899 0.998
26 Sharks 82 211.9 244.2 46.5% 227 266 −6.7 11.0% 0.889 0.998
27 Kraken 82 198.8 229.7 46.4% 201 229 +2.9 9.8% 0.903 1.001
28 Bruins 82 221.2 255.9 46.4% 245 229 +50.8 11.3% 0.904 1.017
29 Flames 82 202.9 240.7 45.7% 192 230 −0.2 8.5% 0.904 0.988
30 Maple Leafs 82 210.6 252.0 45.5% 225 262 +4.4 10.7% 0.899 1.005
31 Canucks 82 209.1 254.6 45.1% 198 284 −40.5 9.5% 0.881 0.976
32 Blackhawks 82 198.7 251.9 44.1% 197 246 +4.2 10.0% 0.897 0.998

Goals above xG: goals for minus expected, less goals against minus expected; positive is better finishing or goaltending than the chances were worth (some skill, mostly luck: see luck rankings). Empty-net goals and overtime aren’t counted here.

Questions

What are expected goals (xG) in hockey?

The chance that a shot goes in, from where and how it was taken: its distance and angle, the shot type, whether it was a rebound or off the rush, and the strength on the ice. Added up over a game or a season, it says how many goals a team’s chances were worth. Ours is fitted on every unblocked shot of four seasons and adjusted for the shooter’s and goalie’s records.

Which NHL team has the best PDO in 2025-26?

The Dallas Stars, at 1.031 (shooting 12.7%, save percentage 0.904). The lowest: the Vancouver Canucks, 0.976. A PDO far from 1.000 rarely lasts.