2026-27 regular season · October 24, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Ducks at Flyers, Oct 24, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Flyers 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P3, 18:00 left): Tristan Luneau scored on a snap shot from 33 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Ducks.
Final
 Anaheim Ducks | 5 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Flyers | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Ducks lucky · −36 Flyers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ducks win 6, Flyers win 4.
- 1 ANA 7 PHI 1
- 2 ANA 5 PHI 1
- 3 ANA 8 PHI 5
- 4 ANA 6 PHI 4
- 5 ANA 4 PHI 2
- 6 ANA 8 PHI 7
- 7 ANA 3 PHI 4
- 8 ANA 3 PHI 4
- 9 ANA 3 PHI 5
- 10 ANA 3 PHI 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Ducks by 0.2, 53% to win. The Ducks won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.8 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ducks win | 52.6% |
| Flyers win | 47.4% |
| Middle 50%: Ducks by 2 to Flyers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Ducks by 4 to Flyers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Ducks by 5 to Flyers by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Ducks by 1 | 20.8% |
| Exactly Flyers by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Ducks by 3 | 12.3% |
| Exactly Flyers by 3 | 10.9% |
| Exactly Ducks by 2 | 10.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 24, 12:13 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ducks win 64% of them, Flyers 36%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ducks by 3+ | 36.2% |
| Ducks by 2 | 10.8% |
| Ducks by 1 | 16.8% |
| Flyers by 1 | 17.6% |
| Flyers by 2 | 7.5% |
| Flyers by 3+ | 11.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ducks | 41 | 5 | 4.05 | +0.95 |
 Flyers | 39 | 4 | 2.65 | +1.35 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:18 | High sticking on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P1 6:19 | Instigator on the Ducks (A.J. Greer): 4 minutes on the power play | +8% PHI |
| P1 3:07 | Tripping on the Flyers (Noah Cates): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% ANA |
| P1 2:19 | Slashing on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PHI |
| P2 14:12 | Interference on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PHI |
| P2 10:13 | Tripping on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P2 6:08 | Roughing on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% ANA |
| P2 0:43 | Roughing on the Flyers (Noel Acciari): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% ANA |
| P3 14:12 | Tripping on the Flyers (Jacob Gaucher): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% ANA |
| P3 0:41 | Hooking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% PHI |
When it happened
Flyers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 6:01 | Matvei Michkov scored on a snap shot from 36 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% PHI | – |
| 2 | P1 4:58 | Porter Martone scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 5% chance | +13% PHI | – |
| 3 | P2 6:53 | A.J. Greer scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 13% chance | +19% ANA | – |
| 4 | P2 4:56 | Tyson Foerster scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 3% chance | +22% PHI | – |
| 5 | P2 3:41 | Judd Caulfield scored on a bat shot from 4 feetShooting · 27% chance | +17% ANA | – |
| 6 | P3 18:00 | Tristan Luneau scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 2% chance | +26% ANA | – |
| 7 | P3 12:50 | Beckett Sennecke scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 20% chance | +12% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 11:43 | Matvei Michkov scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 21% chance | +12% PHI | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ducks 71% · Flyers 29%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for the Flyers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Ducks 64% · Flyers 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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