luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Jets at Stars, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Stars beat the Jets 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 17 points of win probability to the Jets.

The biggest swing (OT): the Stars won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Stars.

Final (OT)

Winnipeg Jets 2
Dallas Stars 3

October 22, 2026 · American Airlines Center

Our prediction before puck drop: Stars by 0.5

Luck index +34 Stars lucky · −34 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 3, Stars win 7.

  1. 1 WPG 5 DAL 2
  2. 2 WPG 3 DAL 2
  3. 3 WPG 2 DAL 1
  4. 4 WPG 3 DAL 4
  5. 5 WPG 1 DAL 2
  6. 6 WPG 3 DAL 5
  7. 7 WPG 1 DAL 3
  8. 8 WPG 1 DAL 4
  9. 9 WPG 1 DAL 5
  10. 10 WPG 1 DAL 6

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Stars by 0.5, 58% to win. The Stars won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.5 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Jets win41.6%
Stars win58.4%
Middle 50%: Jets by 1 to Stars by 350%
Middle 90%: Jets by 4 to Stars by 490%
Middle 95%: Jets by 4 to Stars by 595%
Exactly Stars by 122.1%
Exactly Jets by 118.5%
Exactly Stars by 314.4%
Exactly Stars by 211.0%
Exactly Jets by 39.0%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 11:45 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Jets win 34% of them, Stars 66%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 3+8.4%
Jets by 26.0%
Jets by 119.5%
Stars by 120.4%
Stars by 213.0%
Stars by 3+32.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Stars by 1, without the luck Stars by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Jets2522.09−0.09
Stars4923.78−1.78

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:08 High sticking on the Stars (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P1 8:38 Hooking on the Jets (Brad Lambert): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P1 1:50 Hooking on the Stars (Sam Steel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 11:39 Tripping on the Jets (Mario Ferraro): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P3 12:22 Tripping on the Stars (Tyler Seguin): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG
P3 1:44 Delaying game puck over glass on the Stars (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +10% WPG

When it happened

Stars’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Stars were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 18:43 Wyatt Johnston scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 14% chance +16% DAL –
2 P2 9:10 Gabriel Vilardi scored on a snap shot from 4 feetShooting · 36% chance +14% WPG –
3 P2 7:22 Kyle Connor scored on a slap shot from 33 feetShooting · 9% chance +21% WPG –
4 P3 4:17 Arttu Hyry missed the net with a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 16% chance +6% WPG –
5 P3 2:00 Roope Hintz scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 20% chance +35% DAL –
6 P3 1:44 Delaying game puck over glass on the Stars (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +10% WPG –
7 P3 0:49 Cole Perfetti’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +9% DAL –
8 OT The Stars won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% DAL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 23% · Stars 77%

Final margin
Stars by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Jets 34% · Stars 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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