2026-27 regular season · October 19, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Penguins at Mammoth, Oct 19, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Mammoth beat the Penguins 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 8:16 left): Nate Schmidt scored on a slap shot from 60 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
Final
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 4 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Mammoth lucky · −27 Penguins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penguins win 3, Mammoth win 7.
- 1 PIT 4 UTA 1
- 2 PIT 4 UTA 3
- 3 PIT 3 UTA 2
- 4 PIT 0 UTA 1
- 5 PIT 4 UTA 5
- 6 PIT 1 UTA 3
- 7 PIT 0 UTA 3
- 8 PIT 3 UTA 6
- 9 PIT 1 UTA 5
- 10 PIT 3 UTA 9
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Mammoth by 0.3, 55% to win. The Mammoth won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.7 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Penguins win | 45.3% |
| Mammoth win | 54.7% |
| Middle 50%: Penguins by 2 to Mammoth by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Penguins by 4 to Mammoth by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Penguins by 4 to Mammoth by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 21.6% |
| Exactly Penguins by 1 | 19.4% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 13.2% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 2 | 10.4% |
| Exactly Penguins by 3 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Oct 19, 4:25 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Penguins win 27% of them, Mammoth 73%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penguins by 3+ | 5.4% |
| Penguins by 2 | 5.2% |
| Penguins by 1 | 16.8% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 17.5% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 11.7% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 43.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Penguins | 31 | 4 | 2.26 | +1.74 |
 Mammoth | 45 | 5 | 3.76 | +1.24 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:41 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Dylan Guenther): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P2 13:07 | High sticking on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P2 10:47 | Hooking on the Penguins (Bryan Rust): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% UTA |
| P3 19:33 | Tripping on the Penguins (Blake Lizotte): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% UTA |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:49 | Erik Karlsson scored on a slap shot from 52 feetShooting · 3% chance | +15% PIT | – |
| 2 | P1 14:00 | Clayton Keller scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 3 | P1 9:50 | Kevin Stenlund scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 17% chance | +14% UTA | – |
| 4 | P2 12:59 | Rickard Rakell scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 22% chance | +16% PIT | – |
| 5 | P2 8:16 | Nate Schmidt scored on a slap shot from 60 feetShooting · 2% chance | +21% UTA | – |
| 6 | P2 5:20 | Kailer Yamamoto scored on a tip from 3 feetShooting · 33% chance | +10% UTA | – |
| 7 | P3 5:05 | Declan Carlile scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 11% chance | +9% PIT | – |
| 8 | P3 0:05 | Ben Kindel’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +9% UTA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penguins 16% · Mammoth 84%
- Final margin
- Mammoth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for the Penguins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Penguins 27% · Mammoth 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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