2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Bruins, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bruins beat the Predators 6–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 16:11 left): Casey Mittelstadt scored on a snap shot from 36 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Bruins.
Final
 Nashville Predators | 0 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Bruins lucky · −37 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 4, Bruins win 6.
- 1 NSH 6 BOS 2
- 2 NSH 6 BOS 4
- 3 NSH 4 BOS 3
- 4 NSH 7 BOS 6
- 5 NSH 2 BOS 3
- 6 NSH 3 BOS 4
- 7 NSH 6 BOS 8
- 8 NSH 4 BOS 7
- 9 NSH 2 BOS 6
- 10 NSH 1 BOS 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Bruins by 0.5, 59% to win. The Bruins won by 6: the pick was right. The final margin was 5.5 goals from ours; 2% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Predators win | 41.1% |
| Bruins win | 58.9% |
| Middle 50%: Predators by 1 to Bruins by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Predators by 4 to Bruins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Predators by 4 to Bruins by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Bruins by 1 | 22.1% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 18.4% |
| Exactly Bruins by 3 | 14.6% |
| Exactly Bruins by 2 | 11.1% |
| Exactly Predators by 3 | 8.8% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 11:45 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Predators win 37% of them, Bruins 63%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 12.6% |
| Predators by 2 | 7.7% |
| Predators by 1 | 16.3% |
| Bruins by 1 | 16.8% |
| Bruins by 2 | 10.4% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 36.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 47 | 0 | 3.32 | −3.32 |
 Bruins | 46 | 6 | 4.06 | +1.94 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 3:37 | Holding on the Predators (Nicolas Hague): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 0:46 | Cross checking on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% BOS |
| P3 18:29 | High sticking on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% NSH |
| P3 7:55 | Tripping on the Predators (Nicolas Hague): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% BOS |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:11 | Casey Mittelstadt scored on a snap shot from 36 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% BOS | – |
| 2 | P1 15:56 | Elias Lindholm’s snap shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +2% NSH | – |
| 3 | P1 8:45 | Pavel Zacha missed the net with a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 17% chance | +2% NSH | – |
| 4 | P1 4:33 | Ryan O'Reilly missed the net with a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 11% chance | +2% BOS | – |
| 5 | P1 3:37 | Holding on the Predators (Nicolas Hague): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% BOS | – |
| 6 | P1 3:22 | Elias Lindholm scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 10% chance | +12% BOS | – |
| 7 | P2 16:22 | Nils Hoglander’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +2% BOS | – |
| 8 | P2 10:14 | David Pastrnak scored on a tip from 12 feetShooting · 8% chance | +7% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 14% · Bruins 86%
- Final margin
- Bruins by 6
- Luck in goals
- 3.9 for the Bruins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bruins by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 37% · Bruins 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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