2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Red Wings at Canucks, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Red Wings beat the Canucks 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 15:42 left): Lucas Raymond scored on a tip from 17 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
Final
 Detroit Red Wings | 5 |
|---|---|
 Vancouver Canucks | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Red Wings lucky · −27 Canucks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Red Wings win 7, Canucks win 3.
- 1 DET 7 VAN 2
- 2 DET 6 VAN 2
- 3 DET 8 VAN 5
- 4 DET 5 VAN 2
- 5 DET 6 VAN 4
- 6 DET 4 VAN 3
- 7 DET 3 VAN 2
- 8 DET 1 VAN 2
- 9 DET 0 VAN 1
- 10 DET 2 VAN 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Red Wings by 0.4, 56% to win. The Red Wings won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.6 goals from ours; 26% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Red Wings win | 56.4% |
| Canucks win | 43.6% |
| Middle 50%: Red Wings by 2 to Canucks by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Red Wings by 4 to Canucks by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Red Wings by 5 to Canucks by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Canucks by 1 | 19.5% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 3 | 13.6% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 2 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Canucks by 3 | 9.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 8:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Red Wings win 73% of them, Canucks 27%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Red Wings by 3+ | 42.4% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 12.9% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 17.5% |
| Canucks by 1 | 17.4% |
| Canucks by 2 | 4.2% |
| Canucks by 3+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Red Wings | 46 | 5 | 3.74 | +1.26 |
 Canucks | 26 | 2 | 1.65 | +0.35 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 13:46 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Red Wings (Anton Johansson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VAN |
| P1 11:51 | Slashing on the Canucks (Arshdeep Bains): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P1 3:51 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VAN |
| P2 10:38 | Tripping on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DET |
| P3 18:46 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Alex DeBrincat): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% VAN |
| P3 4:39 | Holding on the Red Wings (Carter Mazur): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% VAN |
| P3 3:30 | Interference on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% DET |
| P3 0:11 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Canucks (Paul Cotter): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% DET |
When it happened
Canucks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 15:42 | Lucas Raymond scored on a tip from 17 feetShooting · 4% chance | +16% DET | – |
| 2 | P1 13:56 | William Wallinder scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 3% chance | +14% DET | – |
| 3 | P1 12:58 | Elias Pettersson scored on a slap shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance | +14% VAN | – |
| 4 | P1 11:51 | Slashing on the Canucks (Arshdeep Bains): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DET | – |
| 5 | P1 11:04 | Lucas Raymond scored on a backhand shot from 2 feetShooting · 64% chance | +5% DET | – |
| 6 | P1 3:51 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% VAN | – |
| 7 | P2 10:38 | Tripping on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% DET | – |
| 8 | P2 5:02 | Michael Rasmussen scored on a tip from 16 feetShooting · 7% chance | +8% DET | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Red Wings 93% · Canucks 7%
- Final margin
- Red Wings by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for the Red Wings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Red Wings by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Red Wings 73% · Canucks 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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