2026-27 regular season · October 24, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sharks at Bruins, Oct 24, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bruins beat the Sharks 6–4, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bruins win 8 of 10. The Sharks had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Sharks.
The biggest swing (P3, 11:33 left): David Pastrnak scored on a snap shot from 40 feet, worth 30 points of win probability to the Bruins.
Final
 San Jose Sharks | 4 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Bruins about even · −20 Sharks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sharks win 2, Bruins win 8.
- 1 SJS 6 BOS 4
- 2 SJS 2 BOS 1
- 3 SJS 4 BOS 5
- 4 SJS 2 BOS 3
- 5 SJS 3 BOS 6
- 6 SJS 0 BOS 3
- 7 SJS 1 BOS 5
- 8 SJS 0 BOS 5
- 9 SJS 2 BOS 8
- 10 SJS 0 BOS 8
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Bruins by 0.7, 61% to win. The Bruins won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.3 goals from ours; 66% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sharks win | 38.6% |
| Bruins win | 61.4% |
| Middle 50%: Sharks by 1 to Bruins by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Sharks by 3 to Bruins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Sharks by 4 to Bruins by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Bruins by 1 | 22.3% |
| Exactly Sharks by 1 | 17.7% |
| Exactly Bruins by 3 | 15.4% |
| Exactly Bruins by 2 | 11.4% |
| Exactly Sharks by 3 | 8.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 24, 6:44 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Sharks win 20% of them, Bruins 80%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sharks by 3+ | 4.1% |
| Sharks by 2 | 3.5% |
| Sharks by 1 | 12.1% |
| Bruins by 1 | 12.3% |
| Bruins by 2 | 8.9% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 59.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sharks | 33 | 4 | 2.28 | +1.72 |
 Bruins | 55 | 5 | 5.23 | −0.23 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:36 | Slashing on the Bruins (Morgan Geekie): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SJS |
| P1 7:44 | Tripping on the Bruins (Fraser Minten): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P2 17:17 | Tripping on the Sharks (Ty Dellandrea): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% BOS |
| P2 10:31 | Slashing on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P2 9:20 | Interference on the Sharks (Mason Marchment): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 7:18 | Tripping on the Sharks (Dmitry Orlov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P3 16:47 | Slashing on the Bruins (Elias Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% SJS |
| P3 13:41 | Tripping on the Bruins (David Pastrnak): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% SJS |
| P3 9:28 | High sticking double minor on the Sharks (Nolan Allan): 4 minutes on the power play | +10% BOS |
| P3 7:48 | Tripping on the Bruins (James Hagens): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% SJS |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:52 | Casey Mittelstadt scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% BOS | – |
| 2 | P1 14:06 | Michael Misa scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 4% chance | +15% SJS | – |
| 3 | P2 11:40 | Marat Khusnutdinov scored on a backhand shot from 15 feetShooting · 11% chance | +18% BOS | – |
| 4 | P2 6:26 | Kiefer Sherwood scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 25% chance | +17% SJS | – |
| 5 | P3 15:57 | Dmitry Orlov scored on a slap shot from 54 feetShooting · 3% chance | +27% SJS | – |
| 6 | P3 11:33 | David Pastrnak scored on a snap shot from 40 feetShooting · 5% chance | +30% BOS | – |
| 7 | P3 10:53 | James Hagens scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 21% chance | +25% BOS | – |
| 8 | P3 9:28 | High sticking double minor on the Sharks (Nolan Allan): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +10% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sharks 8% · Bruins 92%
- Final margin
- Bruins by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Sharks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bruins by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Sharks 20% · Bruins 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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