2026-27 regular season · October 21, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Panthers at Senators, Oct 21, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Senators beat the Panthers 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Senators win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Senators.
The biggest swing (P2, 10:26 left): Claude Giroux scored on a wrist shot from 44 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Senators.
Final
 Florida Panthers | 1 |
|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Senators lucky · −41 Panthers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 4, Senators win 6.
- 1 FLA 6 OTT 3
- 2 FLA 4 OTT 2
- 3 FLA 1 OTT 0
- 4 FLA 3 OTT 2
- 5 FLA 0 OTT 1
- 6 FLA 2 OTT 3
- 7 FLA 0 OTT 2
- 8 FLA 0 OTT 2
- 9 FLA 1 OTT 4
- 10 FLA 1 OTT 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Senators by 0.3, 55% to win. The Senators won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.7 goals from ours; 10% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Panthers win | 44.8% |
| Senators win | 55.2% |
| Middle 50%: Panthers by 2 to Senators by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Panthers by 4 to Senators by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Panthers by 4 to Senators by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 21.7% |
| Exactly Panthers by 1 | 19.3% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 13.4% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 10.5% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 9.9% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Oct 21, 2:53 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 41% of them, Senators 59%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 3+ | 10.8% |
| Panthers by 2 | 8.6% |
| Panthers by 1 | 21.5% |
| Senators by 1 | 23.8% |
| Senators by 2 | 11.5% |
| Senators by 3+ | 23.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers | 26 | 1 | 1.88 | −0.88 |
 Senators | 38 | 5 | 2.44 | +2.56 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:37 | High sticking on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 10:09 | Tripping on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P1 7:15 | Cross checking on the Panthers (Radko Gudas): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 4:00 | High sticking on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P1 0:00 | Roughing removing opponents helmet on the Senators (Carter Yakemchuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P2 18:23 | Holding on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 13:02 | Tripping on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P2 12:55 | Slashing on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% FLA |
| P2 8:17 | High sticking on the Panthers (Matthew Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 0:17 | Slashing on the Panthers (Sam Bennett): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% OTT |
| P3 7:56 | Slashing on the Senators (Hayden Hodgson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% FLA |
| P3 1:14 | Roughing on the Panthers (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% OTT |
When it happened
Senators’ chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 10:00 | Brady Tkachuk scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% FLA | – |
| 2 | P1 5:47 | Tim Stützle scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 19% chance | +15% OTT | – |
| 3 | P1 0:00 | Roughing removing opponents helmet on the Senators (Carter Yakemchuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% FLA | – |
| 4 | P2 18:23 | Holding on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 5 | P2 13:02 | Tripping on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% OTT | – |
| 6 | P2 12:55 | Slashing on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% FLA | – |
| 7 | P2 10:26 | Claude Giroux scored on a wrist shot from 44 feetShooting · 3% chance | +20% OTT | – |
| 8 | P2 2:42 | Shane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance | +14% OTT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 20% · Senators 80%
- Final margin
- Senators by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for the Senators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senators by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 41% · Senators 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 4, 2026-27
- Sharks at Senators Oct 22, 2026 · SJS 6–2 · replay 30% for the winner
- Lightning at Avalanche Oct 23, 2026 · COL 6–3 · replay 36% for the winner
- Lightning at Golden Knights Oct 20, 2026 · TBL 6–2 · replay 38% for the winner
- Canadiens at Jets Oct 25, 2026 · MTL 2–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Lightning at Mammoth Oct 24, 2026 · UTA 5–4 OT · replay 40% for the winner
- Sharks at Canadiens Oct 20, 2026 · SJS 4–3 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets Oct 20, 2026 · TOR 6–2 · replay 43% for the winner
- Red Wings at Flames Oct 24, 2026 · CGY 4–1 · replay 43% for the winner
- Panthers at Blackhawks Oct 25, 2026 · FLA 3–2 · replay 45% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Oilers Oct 24, 2026 · TOR 7–2 · replay 45% for the winner
- Rangers at Senators Oct 24, 2026 · OTT 7–4 · replay 46% for the winner
- Flyers at Sabres Oct 21, 2026 · PHI 3–1 · replay 53% for the winner