luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 20, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Hurricanes at Canucks, Oct 20, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Canucks 6–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Hurricanes win 8 of 10. The Canucks had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The biggest swing (P3, 15:53 left): Nicolas Deslauriers scored on a wrist shot from 9 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final

Carolina Hurricanes 6
Vancouver Canucks 3

October 20, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Hurricanes by 1.0

Luck index +17 Hurricanes about even · −17 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hurricanes win 8, Canucks win 2.

  1. 1 CAR 9 VAN 2
  2. 2 CAR 8 VAN 2
  3. 3 CAR 5 VAN 0
  4. 4 CAR 5 VAN 1
  5. 5 CAR 3 VAN 0
  6. 6 CAR 4 VAN 1
  7. 7 CAR 4 VAN 2
  8. 8 CAR 3 VAN 2
  9. 9 CAR 1 VAN 2
  10. 10 CAR 1 VAN 3

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Hurricanes by 1.0, 67% to win. The Hurricanes won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.0 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Hurricanes win67.0%
Canucks win33.0%
Middle 50%: Hurricanes by 3 to Canucks by 150%
Middle 90%: Hurricanes by 5 to Canucks by 390%
Middle 95%: Hurricanes by 5 to Canucks by 495%
Exactly Hurricanes by 122.0%
Exactly Hurricanes by 317.1%
Exactly Canucks by 116.4%
Exactly Hurricanes by 212.9%
Exactly Hurricanes by 49.3%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 20, 8:52 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Hurricanes win 83% of them, Canucks 17%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hurricanes by 3+62.3%
Hurricanes by 29.8%
Hurricanes by 111.0%
Canucks by 111.3%
Canucks by 22.8%
Canucks by 3+2.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Hurricanes by 3, without the luck Hurricanes by 3.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Hurricanes6354.75+0.25
Canucks2831.69+1.31

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 0:55 Hooking on the Hurricanes (Shayne Gostisbehere): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 12:58 Hooking on the Canucks (Linus Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 9:12 Hooking on the Canucks (Max Sasson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 3:59 Delaying game face off violation on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CAR
P2 1:13 Interference on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN
P3 8:57 High sticking double minor on the Canucks (Filip Chytil): 4 minutes on the power play +4% CAR

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Hurricanes were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:16 Logan Stankoven scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% CAR –
2 P1 9:50 Linus Karlsson scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance +16% VAN –
3 P1 7:51 Nikolaj Ehlers scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% CAR –
4 P1 0:02 Jonathan Lekkerimäki scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 20% chance +15% VAN –
5 P2 17:34 Nicolas Deslauriers scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% CAR –
6 P2 6:53 Max Sasson scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 4% chance +22% VAN –
7 P3 15:53 Nicolas Deslauriers scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance +25% CAR –
8 P3 9:38 Nikolaj Ehlers scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 17% chance +12% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hurricanes 97% · Canucks 3%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 3
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Hurricanes 83% · Canucks 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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