2026-27 regular season · October 20, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Ducks at Islanders, Oct 20, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Islanders beat the Ducks 3–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Islanders win 9 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 6:21 left): Ondrej Palat scored on a wrist shot from 15 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Islanders.
Final
 Anaheim Ducks | 2 |
|---|---|
 New York Islanders | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Islanders about even · −12 Ducks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ducks win 1, Islanders win 9.
- 1 ANA 1 NYI 0
- 2 ANA 3 NYI 4
- 3 ANA 2 NYI 4
- 4 ANA 1 NYI 3
- 5 ANA 2 NYI 5
- 6 ANA 0 NYI 4
- 7 ANA 2 NYI 6
- 8 ANA 2 NYI 7
- 9 ANA 1 NYI 7
- 10 ANA 2 NYI 9
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Islanders by 0.1, 52% to win. The Islanders won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ducks win | 48.3% |
| Islanders win | 51.7% |
| Middle 50%: Ducks by 2 to Islanders by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Ducks by 4 to Islanders by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Ducks by 4 to Islanders by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Islanders by 1 | 21.2% |
| Exactly Ducks by 1 | 20.0% |
| Exactly Islanders by 3 | 12.2% |
| Exactly Ducks by 3 | 11.0% |
| Exactly Islanders by 2 | 9.9% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 20, 11:27 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.6 replays ended
Ducks win 12% of them, Islanders 88%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ducks by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Ducks by 2 | 2.3% |
| Ducks by 1 | 8.8% |
| Islanders by 1 | 10.9% |
| Islanders by 2 | 9.4% |
| Islanders by 3+ | 67.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ducks | 31 | 2 | 1.75 | +0.25 |
 Islanders | 53 | 3 | 4.80 | −1.80 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 2:01 | Hooking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NYI |
| P1 0:32 | Slashing on the Islanders (Ondrej Palat): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% ANA |
| P2 19:29 | Hooking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NYI |
| P2 1:12 | Slashing on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% NYI |
| P3 11:01 | Tripping on the Ducks (Roger McQueen): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% NYI |
| P3 9:54 | Too many men on the ice on the Islanders (NYI): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% ANA |
When it happened
Islanders’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 7:31 | Emil Heineman missed the net with a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 24% chance | +4% ANA | – |
| 2 | P1 6:21 | Ondrej Palat scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 10% chance | +16% NYI | – |
| 3 | P1 3:32 | Victor Eklund scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 10% chance | +12% NYI | – |
| 4 | P1 2:42 | Frank Vatrano scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance | +12% ANA | – |
| 5 | P1 2:01 | Hooking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NYI | – |
| 6 | P1 1:16 | Simon Holmstrom scored on a tip from 12 feetShooting · 11% chance | +12% NYI | – |
| 7 | P3 2:40 | Alex Killorn scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 8% chance | +6% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 0:13 | Mikael Granlund missed the net with a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 13% chance | +6% NYI | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ducks 11% · Islanders 89%
- Final margin
- Islanders by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Islanders by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ducks 12% · Islanders 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 4, 2026-27
- Wild at Oilers Oct 20, 2026 · EDM 4–3 OT · replay 30% for the winner
- Sharks at Senators Oct 22, 2026 · SJS 6–2 · replay 30% for the winner
- Kings at Capitals Oct 20, 2026 · LAK 5–2 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wild at Flames Oct 22, 2026 · CGY 2–1 · replay 33% for the winner
- Lightning at Golden Knights Oct 20, 2026 · TBL 6–2 · replay 38% for the winner
- Mammoth at Kraken Oct 22, 2026 · SEA 5–3 · replay 40% for the winner
- Sharks at Canadiens Oct 20, 2026 · SJS 4–3 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets Oct 20, 2026 · TOR 6–2 · replay 43% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Blue Jackets Oct 24, 2026 · CBJ 2–1 OT · replay 43% for the winner
- Red Wings at Flames Oct 24, 2026 · CGY 4–1 · replay 43% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Oilers Oct 24, 2026 · TOR 7–2 · replay 45% for the winner
- Rangers at Senators Oct 24, 2026 · OTT 7–4 · replay 46% for the winner