2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Oilers, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Hurricanes 6–5, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Oilers.
The biggest swing (SO): the Oilers won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final (SO)
 Carolina Hurricanes | 5 |
|---|---|
 Edmonton Oilers | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Oilers lucky · −44 Hurricanes
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 4, Oilers win 6.
- 1 CAR 3 EDM 0
- 2 CAR 3 EDM 1
- 3 CAR 5 EDM 4
- 4 CAR 6 EDM 5
- 5 CAR 1 EDM 2
- 6 CAR 5 EDM 6
- 7 CAR 1 EDM 2
- 8 CAR 3 EDM 5
- 9 CAR 3 EDM 6
- 10 CAR 0 EDM 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Hurricanes by 0.1, 51% to win. The Oilers won by 1, a result we gave 49%. The final margin was 1.1 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes win | 51.4% |
| Oilers win | 48.6% |
| Middle 50%: Hurricanes by 2 to Oilers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Hurricanes by 4 to Oilers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Hurricanes by 5 to Oilers by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 1 | 20.6% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 20.6% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 3 | 12.0% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 2 | 10.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 8:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hurricanes win 44% of them, Oilers 56%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 14.9% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 8.7% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 20.3% |
| Oilers by 1 | 23.8% |
| Oilers by 2 | 10.9% |
| Oilers by 3+ | 21.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 40 | 5 | 2.59 | +2.41 |
 Oilers | 38 | 5 | 2.93 | +2.07 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:56 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Nicolas Deslauriers): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P1 9:36 | Slashing on the Oilers (Kasperi Kapanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CAR |
| P1 6:52 | Roughing on the Oilers (Ty Emberson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P2 16:24 | Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 14:14 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Juuso Välimäki): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% EDM |
| P3 17:19 | Slashing on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% EDM |
| P3 11:09 | Cross checking on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play | +7% EDM |
When it happened
Oilers’ chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 19:30 | Sebastian Aho scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 11% chance | +17% CAR | – |
| 2 | P2 15:40 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 14% chance | +17% EDM | – |
| 3 | P2 7:01 | Seth Jarvis scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 16% chance | +19% CAR | – |
| 4 | P3 19:34 | Connor McDavid scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% EDM | – |
| 5 | P3 17:09 | Leon Draisaitl scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 21% chance | +22% EDM | – |
| 6 | P3 2:40 | Juuso Välimäki scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 9% chance | +39% CAR | – |
| 7 | P3 1:28 | Connor McDavid scored on a deflected shot from 40 feetShooting · 2% chance | +44% EDM | – |
| 8 | SO | The Oilers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +51% EDM | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 43% · Oilers 57%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 44% · Oilers 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 4, 2026-27
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